Indianapolis Colts playoff chances, Week 10

<1%chance to make the playoffs2-7, 3rd in the AFC South, outside the AFC field today

<1%win the AFC South0%No. 1 seed0%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Colts (2-7) have less than a 1% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, less than a 1% chance to win the AFC South and a 0% chance at the No. 1 seed. The Colts made the playoffs in 10 of 3,000 simulated seasons. They are 3rd in the AFC South and would be outside the AFC field if the season ended today.

What do the Colts need in Week 10?

vs Dolphins, Sunday, 1:00 PM ETThe Colts win it 56% of the time

Playoffs with a win<1%

Playoffs with a loss0%

Beat the Dolphins and the Colts' playoff chance is <1%. Lose and it is 0%.

Who should Colts fans root for in Week 10?

No other game in Week 10 moves the Colts by a full point.

Colts playoff odds by final record

No record still in reach gets the Colts in more often than not.

8-91%6% of seasons

7-100%16% of seasons

6-110%26% of seasons

5-120%27% of seasons

4-130%17% of seasons

3-140%6% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Colts finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Colts playoff seed odds

Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

0%No. 1

0%No. 2

0%No. 3

<1%No. 4

0%No. 5

<1%No. 6

<1%No. 7

99%Miss

Colts remaining schedule

8 games left. At each game’s win chance the Colts finish about 6-11.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Colts win
10	vs Dolphins	Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET	56%
11	at Texans	Thu, Nov 19, 8:15 PM ET	30%
12	vs Giants	Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET	49%
14	at Eagles	Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET	47%
15	at Titans	Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET	55%
16	vs Bengals	Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET	42%

Show the last 2 games

17	at Browns	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	47%
18	vs Jaguars	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	25%

Where would the Colts pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 6typical first-round pick in the seasons the Colts miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Colts miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 6, and between No. 2 and No. 11 in 8 of every 10. It is a top-5 pick in 46% of those seasons. That pick belongs to the Jets after a trade.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Colts as GM

The AFC South race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Jaguars	6-2	99%	96%
Texans	3-5	26%	4%
Colts	2-7	<1%	<1%
Titans	1-7	0%	0%

AFC South playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Colts’ games yourself

Colts playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Colts' playoff chances right now?

<1%. The Colts are 2-7, 3rd in the AFC South, outside the AFC field today. They win the AFC South in <1% of simulated seasons.

What record do the Colts need to make the playoffs?

No record still in reach gets the Colts in more often than not.

Can the Colts still win the AFC South?

It would take help. The Jaguars lead the AFC South at 6-2, and the Colts (2-7) win the division in <1% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

Indianapolis Colts playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.