Houston Texans playoff chances, Week 10

26%chance to make the playoffs3-5, 2nd in the AFC South, outside the AFC field today

4%win the AFC South<1%No. 1 seed<1%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Texans (3-5) have a 26% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 4% chance to win the AFC South and less than a 1% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 2nd in the AFC South and would be outside the AFC field if the season ended today.

What do the Texans need in Week 10?

at Browns, Sunday, 1:00 PM ETThe Texans win it 66% of the time

Playoffs with a win35%

Playoffs with a loss10%

Beat the Browns and the Texans' playoff chance is 35%. Lose and it is 10%.

Who should Texans fans root for in Week 10?

Titans over JaguarsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their division chance

7%vs3%

Lions over PatriotsSunday, 9:30 AM ET · moves their playoff chance

28%vs25%

Bengals over SteelersSunday, 8:20 PM ET · moves their playoff chance

28%vs25%

The Texans’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Texans playoff odds by final record

10-7 gets the Texans in 78% of the time: 7 more wins in the last 9 games. At 11-6 it is 98%.

11-698%5% of seasons

10-778%16% of seasons

9-830%26% of seasons

8-93%27% of seasons

7-100%17% of seasons

6-110%7% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Texans finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Texans playoff seed odds

The Texans' most likely seed is No. 7 (14%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

<1%No. 1

<1%No. 2

<1%No. 3

3%No. 4

3%No. 5

7%No. 6

14%No. 7

74%Miss

Texans remaining schedule

9 games left. At each game’s win chance the Texans finish about 8-9.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Texans win
10	at Browns	Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET	66%
11	vs Colts	Thu, Nov 19, 8:15 PM ET	70%
12	vs Ravens	Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET	70%
13	at Steelers	Sun, Dec 6, 8:20 PM ET	46%
14	at Commanders	Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET	61%
15	vs Jaguars	Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET	39%

Show the last 3 games

16	at Eagles	Thu, Dec 24, 8:15 PM ET	62%
17	at Packers	Mon, Jan 4, 8:15 PM ET	46%
18	vs Titans	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	79%

Where would the Texans pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 13typical first-round pick in the seasons the Texans miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Texans miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 13, and between No. 8 and No. 16 in 8 of every 10. It is a top-5 pick in 3% of those seasons.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Texans as GM

The AFC South race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Jaguars	6-2	99%	96%
Texans	3-5	26%	4%
Colts	2-7	<1%	<1%
Titans	1-7	0%	0%

AFC South playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Texans’ games yourself

Texans playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Texans' playoff chances right now?

26%. The Texans are 3-5, 2nd in the AFC South, outside the AFC field today. They win the AFC South in 4% of simulated seasons, take the No. 1 seed in <1% and win the Super Bowl in <1%.

What record do the Texans need to make the playoffs?

10-7 gets the Texans in 78% of the time: 7 more wins in the last 9 games. At 11-6 it is 98%.

Can the Texans still win the AFC South?

It would take help. The Jaguars lead the AFC South at 6-2, and the Texans (3-5) win the division in 4% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

Houston Texans playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.