Jacksonville Jaguars playoff chances, Week 10

99%chance to make the playoffs6-2, 1st in the AFC South, the AFC's No. 3 seed today

96%win the AFC South23%No. 1 seed20%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Jaguars (6-2) have a 99% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 96% chance to win the AFC South and a 23% chance at the No. 1 seed. The Jaguars made the playoffs in 2,978 of 3,000 simulated seasons. They are 1st in the AFC South and would be the AFC's No. 3 seed if the season ended today.

What do the Jaguars need in Week 10?

at Titans, Sunday, 1:00 PM ETThe Jaguars win it 83% of the time

No. 1 seed with a win26%

No. 1 seed with a loss9%

The Jaguars are 99% to make the playoffs and 96% to win the AFC South, so the race now is the No. 1 seed and the bye. Beat the Titans and their chance at the No. 1 seed is 26%. Lose and it is 9%.

Who should Jaguars fans root for in Week 10?

Jets over BillsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their No. 1 seed chance

33%vs21%

Browns over TexansSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their division chance

99%vs96%

Falcons over ChiefsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their No. 1 seed chance

25%vs22%

The Jaguars’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Jaguars playoff odds by final record

9-8 gets the Jaguars in 67% of the time: 3 more wins in the last 9 games. At 10-7 it is 95%.

15-2100%6% of seasons

14-3100%21% of seasons

13-4100%29% of seasons

12-5100%25% of seasons

11-6100%14% of seasons

10-795%5% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Jaguars finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Jaguars playoff seed odds

The Jaguars' most likely seed is No. 2 (31%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

23%No. 1

31%No. 2

23%No. 3

20%No. 4

<1%No. 5

1%No. 6

1%No. 7

<1%Miss

Jaguars remaining schedule

9 games left. At each game’s win chance the Jaguars finish about 13-4.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Jaguars win
10	at Titans	Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET	83%
11	at Giants	Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET	69%
12	vs Titans	Sun, Nov 29, 4:05 PM ET	88%
13	at Bears	Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET	59%
14	vs Steelers	Mon, Dec 14, 8:15 PM ET	74%
15	at Texans	Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET	61%

Show the last 3 games

16	at Cowboys	Sun, Dec 27, 8:20 PM ET	68%
17	vs Commanders	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	84%
18	at Colts	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	75%

Where would the Jaguars pick if they miss the playoffs?

The Jaguars missed the playoffs in only 142 of 20,000 simulated seasons, too few to project a range. In those seasons the pick landed around No. 16. That pick belongs to the Eagles after a trade.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Jaguars as GM

The AFC South race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Jaguars	6-2	99%	96%
Texans	3-5	26%	4%
Colts	2-7	<1%	<1%
Titans	1-7	0%	0%

AFC South playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Jaguars’ games yourself

Jaguars playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Jaguars' playoff chances right now?

99%. The Jaguars are 6-2, 1st in the AFC South, the AFC's No. 3 seed today. They win the AFC South in 96% of simulated seasons, take the No. 1 seed in 23% and win the Super Bowl in 20%.

What record do the Jaguars need to make the playoffs?

9-8 gets the Jaguars in 67% of the time: 3 more wins in the last 9 games. At 10-7 it is 95%.

Can the Jaguars still win the AFC South?

Yes. The Jaguars lead the AFC South at 6-2 and win it in 96% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

Jacksonville Jaguars playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.