Miami Dolphins playoff chances, Week 10

0%chance to make the playoffs1-7, 4th in the AFC East, outside the AFC field today

0%win the AFC East0%No. 1 seed0%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Dolphins (1-7) did not make the playoffs in any of 3,000 simulated seasons heading into Week 10. They are not mathematically out. They are 4th in the AFC East and would be outside the AFC field if the season ended today.

What do the Dolphins need in Week 10?

at Colts, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ETThe Dolphins win it 44% of the time

The Dolphins play the Colts in Week 10, and the result does not move their playoff chance: it is 0% with a win or a loss.

Who should Dolphins fans root for in Week 10?

No other game in Week 10 moves the Dolphins by a full point.

Dolphins playoff odds by final record

No record still in reach gets the Dolphins in more often than not.

7-100%3% of seasons

6-110%9% of seasons

5-120%20% of seasons

4-130%29% of seasons

3-140%25% of seasons

2-150%12% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Dolphins finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Dolphins playoff seed odds

Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

0%No. 1

0%No. 2

0%No. 3

0%No. 4

0%No. 5

0%No. 6

0%No. 7

100%Miss

Dolphins remaining schedule

9 games left. At each game’s win chance the Dolphins finish about 4-13.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Dolphins win
10	at Colts	Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET	44%
11	at Bills	Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET	16%
12	vs Jets	Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET	54%
13	at Broncos	Sun, Dec 6, 4:05 PM ET	24%
14	vs Bears	Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET	30%
15	at Packers	Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET	24%

Show the last 3 games

16	vs Chargers	Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET	54%
17	vs Bills	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	24%
18	at Patriots	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	23%

Where would the Dolphins pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 4typical first-round pick in the seasons the Dolphins miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Dolphins miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 4, and between No. 1 and No. 8 in 8 of every 10. It is a top-5 pick in 72% of those seasons.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Dolphins as GM

The AFC East race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Bills	7-1	99%	93%
Patriots	5-4	71%	7%
Jets	2-7	<1%	0%
Dolphins	1-7	0%	0%

AFC East playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Dolphins’ games yourself

Dolphins playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Dolphins' playoff chances right now?

0%. The Dolphins are 1-7, 4th in the AFC East, outside the AFC field today. They did not win the AFC East or the Super Bowl in any of 3,000 simulated seasons.

What record do the Dolphins need to make the playoffs?

No record still in reach gets the Dolphins in more often than not.

Can the Dolphins still win the AFC East?

Not in any of 3,000 simulated seasons. The Bills lead the AFC East at 7-1; the Dolphins are 1-7.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET.

Miami Dolphins playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET.