ColtsatSteelers

The tale of the tape

This is a mismatch on the ground. The Colts' run game ranks 2nd and gets a Steelers run defense that ranks 28th. When Indianapolis does throw, it throws short, 4th-most in the league, and goes deep on only 6% of throws. Jonathan Taylor has 86 carries and 50 or more rushing yards in 9 of his last 10 games outdoors. Since 2015, teams with a run-game edge this big won 60% of the time but covered only 47%, because the line already knows. Pittsburgh's answer is its hands: 10th at taking the ball away, against a Colts offense that ranks 28th at avoiding interceptions. If Indianapolis falls behind and Daniel Jones has to throw, that is where the game flips, because the Colts' passing game ranks 28th.

The best unit left is the Colts' third-down defense, 5th, against a Steelers offense that ranks 24th on third down. Pittsburgh's way around it is to throw early and deep: 4th-most on early downs, 3rd-most deep, with DK Metcalf drawing 23% of the targets against a Colts pass defense that ranks 27th. The catch is that Pittsburgh's passing game is 27th too, and 30th once you account for the defenses it has faced. For the bet, the team trends cancel out: the Steelers have covered 7 of 8 outdoors with extra rest, the Colts 7 of 10 as a road underdog outdoors. The angles pick a side, backing Steelers -2.5 at about four times luck's count, while Over 44.5 could be luck.