Josh Downs

Indianapolis Colts·#2UNDERPAID

Pos WRHt 5'9"Wt 175 lbExp 2 yrCollege North Carolina

WR rankings →

Model Score

64.2 MODEL

2023

64.5

2024

68.9

2025

64.2

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 16 games

5832nd

Rec

55950th

Rec Yds

438th

Rec TD

8839th

Targets

34.967th

Yds/Gm

8.654th

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

0.87590th

EPA / target

2.6 yd73rd

Avg separation

7.6 yd

Avg cushion

-0.285th

YAC over exp

62.2%

Catch %

STM Take

The 2024 tier 5 (#33) finish was the real ceiling; the 2025 tier 8 (#68) is the QB-driven regression. Wks 15 and 16 2025 produced 10.3 and 11.8 PPR, but the Wk 10 1.3 and Wk 12 3 floor weeks show what happens when the Colts QB cannot find him. The 2026 trajectory depends entirely on whether the Colts settle the QB room around Daniel Jones or a 2026 draft addition.

Downs came out of UNC as Indianapolis's 3rd-round pick (79th overall) in 2023 after a junior season that produced 94 catches for 1,029 yards. At 5'9" and 175 pounds with sub-4.5 speed, he profiled as a pure slot WR whose production would track whatever the Colts QB room provided. His rookie 2023 produced 68 catches for 771 yards (tier 7 #56), and 2024 was his breakout (tier 5 #33, 72 catches for 803 yards) alongside Michael Pittman Jr. The 2025 #68 (tier 8) regression came with both Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones cycling through the QB1 role.

Strengths

2024 tier 5 #33 finish (72 catches, 803 yards) confirmed his slot value when QB play was even adequate. UNC senior 94-catch line was real college production.
Wks 15-18 2025 produced four games of 5+ PPR. Three consecutive 700+ receiving yard NFL seasons from a 5'9" slot is a meaningful durability baseline.

Concerns

Tier 8 (#68) finish is the worst of his career. Three sub-4 PPR games in 2025 (1.3, 3, 5.4) shows the floor when the QB cannot find the slot.
5'9"/175 frame caps the contested-catch ceiling. Michael Pittman Jr.'s alpha role plus Adonai Mitchell's 2024 addition crowds the target tree.

What to watch: Whether the Colts settle on Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, or a 2026 draft addition as the long-term QB1, because Downs's tier 5 ceiling only sustains with stable QB play.