Josh Downs

Indianapolis Colts·#2UNDERPAID

Pos WRHt 5'9"Wt 171 lbExp 3 yrCollege North Carolina

Updated September 21, 2026

WR rankings →

Model Score

72.7 MODEL

2023

73.1

2024

74.3

2025

72.7

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 1 games

Rec

Rec Yds

Rec TD

Targets

37.0

Yds/Gm

5.7

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

2.229

EPA / target

0.0 yd

Avg separation

0.0 yd

Avg cushion

0.0

YAC over exp

0.0%

Catch %

Draft & College

Round 3, pick 79 · Indianapolis Colts · 2023

North Carolina (ACC)

Taken

#79

where he actually went

Consensus board

72nd

average of the public big boards that spring

Our college model

#80

among WR in our college data

He went about where consensus had him.

In college · 2020-2022 · 28 games

199 rec, 2,466 yds, 19 TD, 12.4 yds/rec

Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.

Comps

College career

his college career vs theirs

Richie James82%Greg Dortch80%Daniel Braverman79%

STM Take

The 2024 tier 5 (#33) finish was the real ceiling; the 2025 tier 8 (#68) is the QB-driven regression. Wks 15 and 16 2025 produced 10.3 and 11.8 PPR, but the Wk 10 1.3 and Wk 12 3 floor weeks show what happens when the Colts QB cannot find him. The 2026 trajectory depends entirely on whether the Colts settle the QB room around Daniel Jones or a 2026 draft addition.

Downs came out of UNC as Indianapolis's 3rd-round pick (79th overall) in 2023 after a junior season that produced 94 catches for 1,029 yards. At 5'9" and 175 pounds with sub-4.5 speed, he profiled as a pure slot WR whose production would track whatever the Colts QB room provided. His rookie 2023 produced 68 catches for 771 yards (tier 7 #56), and 2024 was his breakout (tier 5 #33, 72 catches for 803 yards) alongside Michael Pittman Jr. The 2025 #68 (tier 8) regression came with both Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones cycling through the QB1 role.

Strengths

2024 tier 5 #33 finish (72 catches, 803 yards) confirmed his slot value when QB play was even adequate. UNC senior 94-catch line was real college production.
Wks 15-18 2025 produced four games of 5+ PPR. Three consecutive 700+ receiving yard NFL seasons from a 5'9" slot is a meaningful durability baseline.

Concerns

Tier 8 (#68) finish is the worst of his career. Three sub-4 PPR games in 2025 (1.3, 3, 5.4) shows the floor when the QB cannot find the slot.
5'9"/175 frame caps the contested-catch ceiling. Michael Pittman Jr.'s alpha role plus Adonai Mitchell's 2024 addition crowds the target tree.

What to watch: Whether the Colts settle on Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, or a 2026 draft addition as the long-term QB1, because Downs's tier 5 ceiling only sustains with stable QB play.