Josh Downs

WR·

Indianapolis Colts·#2·5'9"·171 lb·3rd year·North Carolina

UNDERPAIDTier 1Round 3, pick 79 in 2023

Updated November 4, 2026

75.3

Model Score

Down from 76.9 last year

Trade value ·a 6th

Player comps Be the Colts GM →

Josh Downs has 30 catches, 330 receiving yards and 1 touchdown in 8 games for the Indianapolis Colts this season through Week 8, 8.7 PPR points a game (updated November 4, 2026).

Model Score by season

Down 1.6 from last season.

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

A slot receiver whose production lives and dies with his quarterback.

The case for

2024 tier 5 #33 finish (72 catches, 803 yards) confirmed his slot value when QB play was even adequate. UNC senior 94-catch line was real college production.
Wks 15-18 2025 produced four games of 5+ PPR. Three consecutive 700+ receiving yard NFL seasons from a 5'9" slot is a meaningful durability baseline.

The worry

Tier 8 (#68) finish is the worst of his career. Three sub-4 PPR games in 2025 (1.3, 3, 5.4) shows the floor when the QB cannot find the slot.
5'9"/175 frame caps the contested-catch ceiling. Michael Pittman Jr.'s alpha role plus Adonai Mitchell's 2024 addition crowds the target tree.

What to watch: Whether the Colts settle on Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, or a 2026 draft addition as the long-term QB1, because Downs's tier 5 ceiling only sustains with stable QB play.

Full take and bio

The 2024 tier 5 (#33) finish was the real ceiling; the 2025 tier 8 (#68) is the QB-driven regression. Wks 15 and 16 2025 produced 10.3 and 11.8 PPR, but the Wk 10 1.3 and Wk 12 3 floor weeks show what happens when the Colts QB cannot find him. The 2026 trajectory depends entirely on whether the Colts settle the QB room around Daniel Jones or a 2026 draft addition.

Downs came out of UNC as Indianapolis's 3rd-round pick (79th overall) in 2023 after a junior season that produced 94 catches for 1,029 yards. At 5'9" and 175 pounds with sub-4.5 speed, he profiled as a pure slot WR whose production would track whatever the Colts QB room provided. His rookie 2023 produced 68 catches for 771 yards (tier 7 #56), and 2024 was his breakout (tier 5 #33, 72 catches for 803 yards) alongside Michael Pittman Jr. The 2025 #68 (tier 8) regression came with both Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones cycling through the QB1 role.

Comps

The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.

Sterling Shepard ’1882%Brian Blades ’9281%Dexter McCluster ’1364%

Diontae Johnson ’2363%Lance Moore ’0863%

Plays like: Wayne Chrebet, Ed McCaffrey, Sammy Watkins. Built like: Lance Moore, Dexter McCluster, Jimmy Horn Jr.. Coming out: Richie James, Justin Hardy, Jamison Crowder.

Of his 20 closest coming out: 2 stars, 6 starters, 5 backups, 7 didn't stick.

Josh Downs Props This Weekat JAX

Market	Line	Over	Under
Receptions	3.5	+120 Bovada	-160 Bovada
Receiving yards	33.5	-115 Bovada	-115 Bovada

Best price across 9 books as of Mon Nov 2. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room

Play Josh's numbers on Underdog · partner link

Josh Downs Injury StatusNot listed

Josh Downs is not on the injury report as of Nov 4. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

This season · 8 games

Rec3027th

Rec Yds33035th

Rec TD137th

Targets5121st

Yds/Gm41.243rd

Fantasy PPG8.745th

EPA / target1.19519th

Avg separation3.0 yd19th

Avg cushion6.6 yd

YAC over exp0.529th

Catch %60.6%

8.7 fantasy points a game, 70 PPR on the season. Every game on the Game Log, every season on Career. Advanced numbers are EPA and Next Gen Stats.

Contract2026 cap

2026 Cap Hit

$4.2M

APY

$1.4M/yr

Guaranteed at Signing

$1.0M

Years on Deal

Signed

2023

Est. Value

$17.8M/yr

underpaid by $16.4M/yr

Every year of the deal, the dead money and what a cut or trade saves on the Contract tab.

Fantasy outlookWeek 9

Our rest-of-season board has Josh Downs at WR39 (the public consensus says WR30); the model has 80 PPR points left for him this season; this week he visits JAX.

Price a trade for him on the fantasy trade calculator, or see the whole board on the Fantasy hub.