Steelers run game, 3rd, against a run defense ranked 24th.
Longer bar, better unit.
Steelers with the ball
Steelers offenseSaints defense
28th
Passing
21st
3rd
Run game
24th
22nd
Pass rush
22nd
28th
Third down
28th
20th
Big plays
15th
16th
Turnovers
30th
17th
Red zone
20th
Saints with the ball
Saints offenseSteelers defense
18th
Passing
14th
20th
Run game
26th
8th
Pass rush
17th
6th
Third down
8th
24th
Big plays
31st
17th
Turnovers
10th
2nd
Red zone
5th
Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 6, close-game snaps.
On the moneyline, the money runs 11 points ahead of the bets on one side.
Fewer people, betting bigger.
Bets is the share of tickets; money is the share of dollars. When the money runs well ahead of the bets, fewer people are betting bigger on that side, the move bettors call sharp money.
Spread
Steelers-3+3Saints
Bets50%50%
Money50%50%
Total
Over44.544.5Under
Bets74%26%
Money72%28%
The public is on the over: 74% of the bets.
Since 2018: when 65% or more of the bets were on one side, that side hit 49.7% (213-216-5, 434 games). No better than a coin flip.
Moneyline
Steelers-175+145Saints
Bets65%35%
Money54%46%
The Saints: 35% of the bets, 46% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.
Since 2018: when the money ran 10 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side won 57.1% straight up, +4.7 units at the posted prices (504-379, 883 games). About even once you pay the prices.
Bets and money splits via DraftKings, as of Fri 12:04 PM ET. One book's customers, not the whole market.
Steelers team total 22.5 Bovada, over -150, under +115; the spread and total split it 23.8
Saints team total 20.5 Bovada, over -125, under -105; the spread and total split it 20.8
Steelers have covered 1 of the last 1 meetings.
Steelers have covered 1 of the last 1 meetings
Last time, 2022 week 10: Saints 10, Steelers 20, Steelers covered.
1-0against the spread
Steelers -3: 552 past angles back it, where luck alone would give about 294.
Steelers -3some
552 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 294.
1.9xluck's count
Under 44.5could be luck
1,471 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 1,530.
1.0xluck's count
This week · Saints indoors against a team without its top receiver with the line on 3
16-11
this game200020052010201520202025
16 covered11 did notevery game since 1999, 59%
The last time the Saints were here, Oct 15, 2006: beat the Eagles by 3 as a 3-point underdog.
Inside the luck line: 27 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the Saints.
This week · The total with the spread on 3 indoors with a top receiver out
15-10
this game200020052010201520202025
15 went over10 stayed underevery game since 1999, 60%
Inside the luck line: 25 games, and shuffled results produce records like this one. Reading, not a bet; the lean is the over.
Searched this week: 1,216 spread situations and 87 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 4.04 on the spread and 3.4 on the total.
Saints +3: the strongest angles
their pass defense ranks 7 or worse (1 best, 8 worst); second_year_qb 1 or less 175-105
their pass defense ranks 7 or worse (1 best, 8 worst); prev_overtime 1 or less 89-57
the opponent's receivers' height over our corners 2.35 in or more; the opponent's run offense vs our run defense (plus = worse) -5 tiers or less 131-90
Steelers -3: the strongest angles
points they allowed a game over the last three 20.67 pts or more; their QB's year in the league 15 or more 158-93
their QB's year in the league 15 or more; the opponent's overs hit this season 60% or more 94-55
points they scored a game over the last three 24 pts or more; their QB's year in the league 15 or more 150-92
Over 44.5: the strongest angles
the opponent's receivers' height, by targets 74.92 in or more; their run offense vs the run defense (plus = worse) 2 tiers or more 64-40
the opponent's receivers' height over our corners 2.66 in or more; their run offense vs the run defense (plus = worse) 4 tiers or more 89-59
the opponent's receivers' height, by targets 74.21 in or more; their run offense vs the run defense (plus = worse) 2 tiers or more 207-145
Under 44.5: the strongest angles
their pass defense ranks 7 or worse (1 best, 8 worst); the opponent's overs streak 3 or more 89-45
the opponent's overs hit this season 60% or more; the opponent's QB's career starts 197 or more 53-24
the opponent's overs hit this season 54% or more; the opponent's QB's career starts 197 or more 67-35
Chris Olave has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 6+ catches.
Chris OlaveWR
Chris Olave has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 6+ catches. 14 of 32 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
9 of 10last 10
Jaylen WarrenRB
Jaylen Warren has 7 of his last 10 games on the road with 50+ rushing yards. 10 of 35 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
7 of 10last 10
Aaron RodgersQB
Aaron Rodgers has 7 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns. 8 of 23 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
7 of 10last 10
1 more player trends
Chris OlaveWR
Chris Olave has 9 of his last 10 games indoors with 50+ receiving yards. 12 of 22 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
9 of 10last 10
Jaylen Warren Over 25.5 receiving yards (-115): 6 of 6 this season.
Why: under 15.5 in 4 of 6 indoors as an underdog; PIT allow 13% less than league to his position · Against: this season 8, 23, 36, 5, 0, 32 (average 17)
NO allow 9% less than league to WRs, 24th most · this season 40, 27, 31, 115, 12, 93
24 of 36games
Pat Freiermuth TE PITOver 3.5 receptions (+110)Confidence 54
on the road indoors · 10 of 33 everywhere else · NO allow 7% more than league to TEs, 7th most · this season 5, 4, 2, 3, 5, 2
3 of 5on the road indoors
14 more posted lines with no read either way
Aaron Rodgers 233.5 passing yards (over in 18 of his 39, 2024-2026), Jaylen Warren 61.5 rushing yards (over in 13 of his 37, 2024-2026), CJ Donaldson 11.5 rushing yards, Germie Bernard 54.5 receiving yards, Devaughn Vele 42.5 receiving yards (over in 9 of his 28, 2024-2026), Pat Freiermuth 33.5 receiving yards (over in 14 of his 38, 2024-2026), Darnell Washington 25.5 receiving yards (over in 11 of his 32, 2024-2026), Bryce Lance 13.5 receiving yards, Rico Dowdle 8.5 receiving yards (over in 24 of his 36, 2024-2026), Kendre Miller 3.5 receiving yards (over in 7 of his 18, 2024-2026), Juwan Johnson 3.5 receptions (over in 21 of his 38, 2024-2026), Darnell Washington 2.5 receptions (over in 12 of his 32, 2024-2026), Bryce Lance 1.5 receptions and Rico Dowdle 1.5 receptions (over in 25 of his 36, 2024-2026).
Our number for this game.
Our number Steelers -0.9 against the market Steelers -3: 2.1 toward the Saints.
Last A Grade bet, graded: SEA at DEN, week 6, George Holani under 1.5 receptions (+110), won +0.55u; stamped Thu 7:41 PM ET; closed 1.5, matched the close.
10 picks on the official card: 2 bets, 8 watching.
Juwan Johnson over 33.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada)Watching · not a bet
His history: over 32.5 in 23 of 38 games · His history, the matchup, a rule and the script point the same way · Take it at 33.5 or lower · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
Tyler Shough over 236.5 passing yards (-115.0)B Grade · 1.5 units · wins 58%
His history: Over in 11 of 17 games, 2025-2026 · His history, the matchup and the script point the same way · Take it at 236.5 or lower · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
Jaylen Warren under 3.5 catches (-170.0)Watching · not a bet
His history: Under in 15 of 19 on the road, 12 of 18 everywhere else · The grid, his history and the matchup point the same way; against it: the script · Take it at 3.5 or higher · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
NO +3.5 (-114.0)C Grade · 1 unit · wins 57%
A rule: Model lean vs a team looking ahead to a division game · The market and a rule point the same way · Take it at +3.5 or better · stamped Wed 1:18 PM ET
Kendre Miller under 45.5 rushing yards (-114.0 at DraftKings/FanDuel)Watching · not a bet
The market: our projection 29.2 rushing yards, first posted at 45.5 (38.5 now); the under by 12% past the price · A read: the grid · Take it at 45.5 or higher · stamped Tue 12:45 PM ET
DK Metcalf under 4.5 catches (-105.0)Watching · not a bet
Under in 26 of 36 games, 2024-2026 · A read: his history; against it: the script · Take it at 4.5 or higher · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
Alvin Kamara under 12.5 receiving yards (-114 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
The grid: 0 angles say over, 9 under; best, after a win on turf with a starting defensive back out: 59% of 376 · A read: the grid; against it: the script · Take it at 12.5 or higher · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
Germie Bernard under 4.5 catches (+114 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
The grid: 0 angles say over, 3 under; best, on turf with the quarterback out with a starting defensive back out: 60% of 103 · · Take it at 4.5 or higher · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
Over 44.5 (-107.0)Watching · not a bet
The market: the model's total 46.1 vs 44.5 posted (indoors) · · Take it at 44.5 or lower · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
Devaughn Vele under 4.5 catches (-165 at DraftKings)Watching · not a bet
The grid: 1 angle say over, 4 under; best, at home with the quarterback out against a secondary with a starter out: 59% of 132 · · Take it at 4.5 or higher · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET
Noah Fant over 10.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bovada)withdrawn
His history: over 10.5 in 25 of 31 games · His history, the matchup, a rule and the script point the same way · Take it at 10.5 or lower · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 21: one leg a player (Noah Fant over 1.5 catches is on the card)
Noah Fant over 1.5 catches (-135.0)withdrawn
His history: Over in 7 of 8 indoors, 16 of 22 everywhere else · His history, the matchup and the script point the same way · Take it at 1.5 or lower · stamped Wed 1:31 AM ET · withdrawn Oct 21: one leg a player (Noah Fant over 11.5 receiving yards is on the card)
Chris Olave over 5.5 catches (-150.0)withdrawn
His history: Over in 14 of 19 indoors, 3 of 11 everywhere else · His history, the matchup and the script point the same way · Take it at 5.5 or lower · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 21: receptions overs are off the card as official (47.8% of 17,472 at the close 2019-25; 40-50 in 2026)
Chris Olave over 75.5 receiving yardswithdrawn
Chris Olave has 9 of his last 10 games at home with over 5.5 catches · His history and the script point the same way · Take it at 75.5 or lower · stamped Wed 1:31 AM ET · withdrawn Oct 22: one leg a player (Chris Olave over 5.5 catches is on the card)
Shough over 236.5 pass yds + Olave over 75.5 rec yds (story parlay)withdrawn
Chris Olave holds the NO top receiving-yards line · · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 21: its anchor leg (2026_07_PIT_NO|prop|Tyler Shough|passing yards|over) is no longer an official pick
Shough over 236.5 pass yds + PIT-NO over 44.5 (story parlay)withdrawn
The card leans over · · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 21: its anchor leg (2026_07_PIT_NO|prop|Tyler Shough|passing yards|over) is no longer an official pick
Rico Dowdle over 33.5 rushing yards (-120 at Bovada)withdrawn
His history: Over in 12 of 17 on the road, 11 of 18 everywhere else · The matchup and the script point the same way; against it: the grid · Take it at 33.5 or lower · stamped Wed 1:31 AM ET · withdrawn Oct 22: no longer qualifies on the latest inputs (status, weather, price or a conflict)
Pat Freiermuth anytime TD (340 at BetMGM)withdrawn
The market: Kalshi 26%, fair +292; +340 at BetMGM · · stamped Thu 9:04 AM ET · withdrawn Oct 22: no longer qualifies on the latest inputs (status, weather, price or a conflict)
CJ Donaldson anytime TD (750 at BetMGM)withdrawn
The market: Kalshi 15%, fair +567; +750 at BetMGM · · stamped Fri 8:31 AM ET · withdrawn Oct 23: anytime TD priced past Kalshi's chance no longer lists it on this stamp's inputs
PIT -3.5 (+105 at theScore Bet)withdrawn
Script play: The script (game read): Pittsburgh holds structural edges on both sides: 3rd-ranked run offense against New Orleans's 31st-ranked run defense, and 7th-ranked pass defense against New Orleans's 22nd-ranked passing offense; The script (injuries): New Orleans carries a minus-2.17 point injury impact—Travis Etienne Jr. on IR (cost 5.7), Kaden Elliss out (cost 18.3), Nathan Shepherd out (cost 9.6)—versus Pittsburgh's minus-0.99 impact from WR losses; Team history (team trend): Pittsburgh is 2-1 ATS over the last three games with a plus-5.3 scoring margin; New Orleans is 1-2 ATS with a minus-8.0 margin over the same span · · Take it at -3.5 or better · stamped Tue 12:45 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 21: two official reads disagree on this market: no bet either way
Rico Dowdle under 33.5 rushing yardswithdrawn
The grid: 0 angles say over, 5 under; best, in a dome on turf against a backup quarterback: 63% of 108 · A read: the grid; against it: the script · Take it at 33.5 or higher · stamped Tue 11:47 PM ET · withdrawn Oct 21: one leg a player (Rico Dowdle over 33.5 rushing yards is on the card)
Under 44.5 (-110.0)withdrawn
DraftKings 2026-10-21T04:41: NO spread 56% of bets, 68% of money (12 points apart) · · Take it at 44.5 or higher · stamped Wed 1:31 AM ET · withdrawn Oct 21: no longer qualifies on the latest inputs (status, weather, price or a conflict)
PIT at 
NOPIT -3 / PIT -0.86Sun 1:00 PM
CIN at 
BALBAL -1.5 / BAL -0.41Sun 1:00 PM
CLE at 
TENCLE -1.5 / CLE -0.98Sun 1:00 PM
IND at 
MINMIN -6.5 / MIN -6.01Sun 1:00 PM
MIA at 
NYJNYJ -4.5 / NYJ -5.29Sun 1:00 PM
NYG at 
HOUHOU -10.5 / HOU -8.44Sun 1:00 PM
SF at 
ATLSF -2.5 / SF -4.01Sun 1:00 PM
TB at 
CARCAR -3 / CAR -2.51Sun 4:05 PM
DEN at 
ARIDEN -4.5 / DEN -3.63Sun 4:25 PM
GB at 
DETDET -3 / DET -4.6Sun 4:25 PM
LA at 
LVLA -3.5 / LA -2.05Sun 8:20 PM
KC at 
SEASEA -3 / KC -1.85Mon 8:15 PM
DAL at 
PHIDAL -4.5 / DAL -1.92Thu 8:15 PM
NE at 
CHICHI -3 / CHI -3.35
A Steelers win moves their playoff chances from 55% to 62%; a loss drops them to 43%. Play out the rest of their season →
A Saints win moves their playoff chances from 11% to 16%; a loss drops them to 8%. Play out the rest of their season →
Ben Skowronek WROUTCalf
Drew Allar QBOUTCoach's Decision
Eli Heidenreich RBOUTCoach's Decision
Will Howard QBOUTCoach's Decision
Brandin Echols CBOUTHamstring
Kevin Jobity Jr. DTOUTCoach's Decision
Sean Murphy-Bunting CBOUTCoach's Decision
Terell Smith CBOUTCoach's Decision
Michael Pittman Jr. WRIRFoot
Roman Wilson WRIRFinger
DeShon Elliott SIRKnee
Derrick Harmon DTIRFoot
Gennings Dunker GIRKnee
Sebastian Joseph-Day DTIRTriceps
Rico Dowdle RBQKnee
Zach Wilson QBOUTCoach's Decision
John Ridgeway III DTOUTCoach's Decision
Mike Reid CBOUTCoach's Decision
Jordyn Tyson WRIRHamstring
Travis Etienne Jr. RBIRHamstring
David Long Jr. CBIR
Dillon Radunz GIRKnee - ACL
Kelvin Banks Jr. OTIRAnkle
Cesar Ruiz GQKnee
Nathan Shepherd DTQAchilles
