Alvin Kamara

New Orleans Saints·#41

Pos RBHt 5'10"Wt 215 lbExp 8 yrCollege Tennessee

RB rankings →

Model Score

71.6 MODEL

2018

77.8

2019

72.5

2020

81.7

2021

76.7

2022

76.1

2023

79.1

2024

76.3

2025

71.6

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 11 games

47146th

Rush Yds

158th

Rush TD

3323rd

Rec

18637th

Rec Yds

163rd

Total TD

9.536th

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

-0.22070th

EPA / rush

-7470th

Rush yds over exp

4.55

Efficiency

2.57s

Time to line

STM Take

The career arc is now unmistakable. From tier 4 (#15) in 2023 to tier 6 (#22) in 2024 to tier 8 (#62) in 2025, the decline is monotonic and matches what age and 1,800+ career touches predict. The 2025 game log peaks at Wk 10's 14.5 PPR with most weeks single-digit; the synthesis cuts off at Wk 12, suggesting injury. At 31 he is no longer the offensive centerpiece New Orleans is paying him to be.

Kamara came out of Tennessee as New Orleans's 3rd-round pick (67th overall) in 2017 after a junior season that earned him 1st-team All-SEC honors. He was the 2017 Offensive Rookie of the Year on the back of 1,554 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns, then made five consecutive Pro Bowls (2017-2021) and tied an NFL record with six rushing touchdowns in a single game (vs Minnesota, December 2020). He has been the Saints' backfield identity for nine seasons and re-signed in 2024 on a deal that runs through 2026, despite a steady production decline since the 2017-2020 prime.

Strengths

2017 Offensive Rookie of the Year, five consecutive Pro Bowls (2017-2021), and the six-rushing-TD single-game NFL record tie establish a Hall-of-Very-Good career foundation that few backs of his era will match.
Career receiving production (498+ catches across 9 seasons) is the all-time leader for any RB through their first nine seasons, which gives him standalone passing-down value even at age 31.

Concerns

The STTM arc from #15 (tier 4) in 2023 to #62 (tier 8) in 2025 is a textbook decline curve. The synthesis ending at Wk 12 2025 implies the season ended early due to injury.
At 31 with 1,800+ career touches and the synthesis showing single-digit floor weeks (3.5, 0.7, 5.9, 6.5), the production is now backup-tier even when he is on the field.

What to watch: Whether New Orleans gives him a defined passing-down role for 2026 or whether the Saints absorb the cap hit to release him outright.