Bradley Chubb

Buffalo Bills

Pos EDGE

Updated October 8, 2026

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Model Score

86.7 MODEL

2018

90.7

2019

88.3

2020

86.7

2021

79.6

2022

80.8

2023

85.4

2025

78.2

2026

86.7

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

Two Pro Bowls plus the 2017 Bronko Nagurski Trophy plus the 5th overall draft slot plus the 2023 tier 2 (#14) Pro Bowl confirms the structural elite ceiling exists. The 2024 ACL absence plus the 2025 tier 6 (#44) post-injury return puts Chubb in the recovery-context band. The 2026 question is whether Chubb returns to tier 3 territory or whether the multi-year ACL history closes the structural elite chapter.

Chubb came out of NC State as the Denver Broncos' 1st-round pick (5th overall) in 2018 after winning the 2017 Bronko Nagurski Trophy. He made two Pro Bowls (2020, 2023) and was traded to the Miami Dolphins at the 2022 trade deadline. He tore his ACL in the 2024 season opener and missed all of 2024. His STTM career runs tier 2 (#13) in 2020, tier 8 (#126) in 2021 ACL year, tier 8 (#72) in 2022, tier 2 (#14) in 2023 Pro Bowl, and tier 6 (#44) in 2025 post-ACL return.

Strengths

2017 Bronko Nagurski Trophy plus 5th overall pick plus two Pro Bowls (2020, 2023) plus the 2023 tier 2 (#14) finish establishes the elite ceiling.
Post-ACL 2025 tier 6 (#44) return confirms the recovery is on track, with the prior tier 2 ceiling potentially reachable in year-two recovery.

Concerns

Multi-year ACL injury history (2021 plus 2024) puts continued durability question on every 2026 projection.
Miami's broader defensive identity instability plus the Tua Tagovailoa offensive context puts continued Chubb production partly outside his control.

What to watch: Whether Chubb returns to tier 3 (top 25) in 2026 post-ACL year-two recovery, the threshold for confirming the elite ceiling is still reachable.