Keon Coleman
Buffalo BillsKeon Coleman has 20 catches, 287 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns in 7 games for the Buffalo Bills this season through Week 8, 9.5 PPR points a game (updated November 4, 2026).
Model Score by season
Down 0.8 from last season.
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
STM Take
A contested-catch receiver whose role has not grown yet.
The case for
- 1,059 receiving yards at FSU in 2023 plus elite contested-catch traits (he was the highest-rated contested-catch WR in the 2024 class) establish a defined skill set.
- Wk 10 2025's 13.6 PPR plus the Wk 8 and Wk 13 6+ PPR floor weeks shows he is part of the rotation. Age 23 leaves multiple Year 3-4 development opportunities.
The worry
- Two straight tier 7/8 finishes (#51, #72) for the Stefon Diggs replacement role is a real disappointment. Buffalo expected tier 4 territory by Year 2.
- Six of his last eight 2025 weeks scored under 9 PPR (4.1, 6, 3.7, 3.6, 4.6) confirms the floor pattern. Khalil Shakir's emergence further compresses the target ceiling.
What to watch: Whether his 2026 target share clears 6 per game across the first six weeks, the threshold every 2nd-round WR has historically needed to hit by Year 3 to avoid bust status.
Full take and bio
Two straight bottom-tier finishes (#51 in 2024, #72 in 2025) for a 2nd-round pick drafted to be the Stefon Diggs replacement is a real concern. The Wk 10 2025 13.6 PPR is the spike-week proof that the contested-catch ability translates, but six of his eight logged weeks scored under 9 PPR. The 2026 question is whether the role expands or whether Buffalo brings in another option to compete for the alpha.
Coleman came out of Florida State (after transferring from Michigan State) as Buffalo's 2nd-round pick (33rd overall) in 2024 after a 1,059-yard junior season at FSU. At 6'3" and 213 pounds with elite contested-catch traits, he was drafted as the long-term replacement for Stefon Diggs after Buffalo traded Diggs to Houston in March 2024. His rookie 2024 produced a tier 7 #51 finish (29 catches for 556 yards), and 2025 was the expected Year 2 jump that did not arrive: tier 8 (#72) on a similar production line.
Comps
The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.
Michael Wilson ’2463%
Brandon LaFell ’1162%Plays like: Brian Blades, Irving Fryar, Jermaine Lewis. Built like: Lestar Jean, Jarrett Boykin, Cody White. Coming out: Jarrett Boykin, Cody White, Brandon LaFell.
Of his 20 closest coming out: 0 stars, 3 starters, 10 backups, 7 didn't stick.
Keon Coleman Props This Weekvs BAL
| Market | Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 2.5 | +135 Bovada | -180 Bovada |
| Receiving yards | 27.5 | -115 Bovada | -115 Bovada |
Best price across 9 books as of Mon Nov 2. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room
Play Keon's numbers on Underdog · partner link
Keon Coleman Injury StatusNot listed
Keon Coleman is not on the injury report as of Nov 4. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.
This season · 7 games
9.5 fantasy points a game, 67 PPR on the season. Every game on the Game Log, every season on Career. Advanced numbers are EPA and Next Gen Stats.
Contract2026 cap
Every year of the deal, the dead money and what a cut or trade saves on the Contract tab.
Fantasy outlookWeek 9
Our rest-of-season board has Keon Coleman at WR45 (the public consensus says WR46); the model has 94 PPR points left for him this season; this week he hosts BAL.
Price a trade for him on the fantasy trade calculator, or see the whole board on the Fantasy hub.
Draft & College
Round 2, pick 33 to the Buffalo Bills in 2024, out of Florida State (ACC). He went about where consensus had him.
In college, 2022-2023, 24 games: 108 rec, 1,456 yds, 18 TD, 13.5 yds/rec.
Recruited
Class of 2021 · Receiver · High school: Opelousas Catholic School, Opelousas, LA
His full list of offers is not on our record yet; offers for the 2021 class are still being added.