Keon Coleman

Buffalo Bills·#0

Pos WRHt 6'4"Wt 215 lbExp 1 yrCollege Florida State

WR rankings →

Model Score

65.1 MODEL

2024

71.7

2025

65.1

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 12 games

3859th

Rec

40470th

Rec Yds

438th

Rec TD

6260th

Targets

33.768th

Yds/Gm

8.556th

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

0.93879th

EPA / target

2.4 yd88th

Avg separation

5.5 yd

Avg cushion

-0.391st

YAC over exp

54.3%

Catch %

STM Take

Two straight bottom-tier finishes (#51 in 2024, #72 in 2025) for a 2nd-round pick drafted to be the Stefon Diggs replacement is a real concern. The Wk 10 2025 13.6 PPR is the spike-week proof that the contested-catch ability translates, but six of his eight logged weeks scored under 9 PPR. The 2026 question is whether the role expands or whether Buffalo brings in another option to compete for the alpha.

Coleman came out of Florida State (after transferring from Michigan State) as Buffalo's 2nd-round pick (33rd overall) in 2024 after a 1,059-yard junior season at FSU. At 6'3" and 213 pounds with elite contested-catch traits, he was drafted as the long-term replacement for Stefon Diggs after Buffalo traded Diggs to Houston in March 2024. His rookie 2024 produced a tier 7 #51 finish (29 catches for 556 yards), and 2025 was the expected Year 2 jump that did not arrive: tier 8 (#72) on a similar production line.

Strengths

1,059 receiving yards at FSU in 2023 plus elite contested-catch traits (he was the highest-rated contested-catch WR in the 2024 class) establish a defined skill set.
Wk 10 2025's 13.6 PPR plus the Wk 8 and Wk 13 6+ PPR floor weeks shows he is part of the rotation. Age 23 leaves multiple Year 3-4 development opportunities.

Concerns

Two straight tier 7/8 finishes (#51, #72) for the Stefon Diggs replacement role is a real disappointment. Buffalo expected tier 4 territory by Year 2.
Six of his last eight 2025 weeks scored under 9 PPR (4.1, 6, 3.7, 3.6, 4.6) confirms the floor pattern. Khalil Shakir's emergence further compresses the target ceiling.

What to watch: Whether his 2026 target share clears 6 per game across the first six weeks, the threshold every 2nd-round WR has historically needed to hit by Year 3 to avoid bust status.