T.J. Hockenson

Minnesota Vikings·#87

Pos TEHt 6'5"Wt 248 lbExp 6 yrCollege Iowa

TE rankings →

Model Score

74.7 MODEL

2019

67.7

2020

69.8

2021

70.3

2022

70.7

2023

79.5

2024

73.6

2025

74.7

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 15 games

5117th

Rec

43826th

Rec Yds

324th

Rec TD

6622nd

Targets

29.229th

Yds/Gm

7.530th

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

0.56340th

EPA / target

3.7 yd16th

Avg separation

6.0 yd

Avg cushion

-0.243rd

YAC over exp

80.0%

Catch %

STM Take

From tier 2 #5 in 2023 to tier 7 #26 in 2025 across the two post-ACL seasons is the typical TE recovery arc; the explosive route tree has not yet returned. Wks 13 and 15 2025 produced 11.9 and 10.6 PPR, the ceiling games show the burst is partially back. At 28 he is in his prime years and the Vikings' commitment to him as the long-term TE1 is locked, but the 2026 trajectory depends on whether the knee returns to full function.

Hockenson came out of Iowa as Detroit's #8 overall pick in 2019 after winning the John Mackey Award as a sophomore. He made the Pro Bowl as a rookie and posted three top-20 STTM finishes with Detroit (#18 in 2019, #18 in 2020, #17 in 2021). Minnesota traded for him at the 2022 deadline and he reached tier 2 #5 in 2023 (95 catches, 960 yards) as Kirk Cousins's primary receiving target. A December 2023 torn ACL ended that season and the 2024 (#31) and 2025 (#26) finishes reflect ongoing recovery from the knee.

Strengths

Pro Bowl rookie, three Detroit top-20 finishes, plus the 2023 Minnesota tier 2 (#5) season on 95 catches for 960 yards confirms top-5 TE ceiling when healthy.
Wks 13 and 15 2025 produced 11.9 and 10.6 PPR. The Kevin O'Connell offense schemes him target volume that no other Vikings TE absorbs.

Concerns

Two straight bottom-tier finishes (#31 in 2024, #26 in 2025) post-ACL is the typical recovery curve; the 2023 tier 2 ceiling has not yet returned.
JJ McCarthy's career arc remains uncertain. Hockenson's tier 2 ceiling correlated strongly with Kirk Cousins's veteran familiarity, which McCarthy must replicate.

What to watch: Whether his 2026 target share clears 7 per game with JJ McCarthy as the starter, the threshold he needs for any return to tier 2 territory.