Trey Hendrickson

Baltimore RavensOVERPAID

Pos EDGE

Updated October 8, 2026

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Model Score

93.0 MODEL

2019

71.5

2020

85.4

2021

89.0

2022

82.2

2023

89.8

2024

99.0

2025

87.2

2026

93.0

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

Four Pro Bowls plus the 2024 NFL sack title (17.5) plus the tier 1 (#2) 2024 peak to tier 8 (#60) 2025 collapse creates one of the largest single-year STTM regressions for an All-Pro edge defender in recent memory. The Florida Atlantic Group of Five 3rd-round origin plus the elite Bengals chapter makes the 2025 collapse particularly striking. The 2026 question is whether Hendrickson returns to tier 1-2 territory or whether contract dispute or structural injury context closed the elite chapter.

Hendrickson came out of Florida Atlantic as the New Orleans Saints' 3rd-round pick (103rd overall) in 2017 and made four straight Pro Bowls (2021-2024). He led the NFL with 17.5 sacks in 2024. His STTM career runs tier 1 (#4) in 2021, tier 3 (#19) in 2022, tier 2 (#9) in 2023, tier 1 (#2) peak in 2024 sack title, and tier 8 (#60) collapse in 2025.

Strengths

Four straight Pro Bowls (2021-2024) plus the 2024 NFL sack title (17.5) plus the tier 1 (#2) 2024 peak establishes one of the most outlier-positive draft-slot-vs-outcome arcs at the position.
Florida Atlantic Group of Five 3rd-round origin makes the Pro Bowl-pedigree career one of the most remarkable journeyman-to-elite arcs of his generation.

Concerns

58-spot regression from tier 1 (#2) in 2024 to tier 8 (#60) in 2025 is the largest single-year STTM collapse of any active All-Pro edge defender, flagging contract dispute, scheme shift, or structural injury context.
Bengals' broader defensive identity transition plus the contract structure puts continued Hendrickson production at significant 2026 risk.

What to watch: Whether Hendrickson returns to tier 2 (top 15) in 2026, the threshold for confirming the 2025 collapse was situational rather than the structural end of the elite chapter.