Trey Hendrickson
Baltimore RavensOVERPAIDModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 7 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Covers the college seasons in our data, which does not always reach back to a player's first year.
Comps
STM Take
Four Pro Bowls plus the 2024 NFL sack title (17.5) plus the tier 1 (#2) 2024 peak to tier 8 (#60) 2025 collapse creates one of the largest single-year STTM regressions for an All-Pro edge defender in recent memory. The Florida Atlantic Group of Five 3rd-round origin plus the elite Bengals chapter makes the 2025 collapse particularly striking. The 2026 question is whether Hendrickson returns to tier 1-2 territory or whether contract dispute or structural injury context closed the elite chapter.
Hendrickson came out of Florida Atlantic as the New Orleans Saints' 3rd-round pick (103rd overall) in 2017 and made four straight Pro Bowls (2021-2024). He led the NFL with 17.5 sacks in 2024. His STTM career runs tier 1 (#4) in 2021, tier 3 (#19) in 2022, tier 2 (#9) in 2023, tier 1 (#2) peak in 2024 sack title, and tier 8 (#60) collapse in 2025.
Strengths
- Four straight Pro Bowls (2021-2024) plus the 2024 NFL sack title (17.5) plus the tier 1 (#2) 2024 peak establishes one of the most outlier-positive draft-slot-vs-outcome arcs at the position.
- Florida Atlantic Group of Five 3rd-round origin makes the Pro Bowl-pedigree career one of the most remarkable journeyman-to-elite arcs of his generation.
Concerns
- 58-spot regression from tier 1 (#2) in 2024 to tier 8 (#60) in 2025 is the largest single-year STTM collapse of any active All-Pro edge defender, flagging contract dispute, scheme shift, or structural injury context.
- Bengals' broader defensive identity transition plus the contract structure puts continued Hendrickson production at significant 2026 risk.
What to watch: Whether Hendrickson returns to tier 2 (top 15) in 2026, the threshold for confirming the 2025 collapse was situational rather than the structural end of the elite chapter.