Tristan Wirfs
Tampa Bay BuccaneersModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 12 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
Comps
STM Take
Four consecutive tier 1 finishes (#1 in 2021, #3 in 2022, #17 in 2023 with a brief injury, #2 in 2024) establish a generational career arc, then the 2025 collapse to tier 5 (#35) is the most dramatic single-season decline of any active elite OL. Three 1st-team All-Pro selections plus Super Bowl LV at age 21 plus the successful LT-to-RT switch is Hall-of-Fame trajectory. The 2025 production must be injury-driven; the 27-year-old age is in the prime years and no other factor explains the crash.
Wirfs came out of Iowa as Tampa Bay's 1st-round pick (13th overall) in 2020 after winning Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year. He made the 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Pro Bowls plus 1st-team All-Pro selections in 2021, 2023, and 2024, establishing himself as one of the two best tackles in football alongside Lane Johnson. He won Super Bowl LV as a rookie. The 2024 left-to-right tackle position switch confirmed his versatility. His 2025 tier 5 (#35) finish broke a four-year tier 1 streak and is almost certainly injury-driven.
Strengths
- Three 1st-team All-Pro selections (2021, 2023, 2024) plus four straight Pro Bowls plus Super Bowl LV ring at age 21 establishes Hall-of-Fame trajectory. The 2024 left-to-right tackle position switch was seamless.
- Four consecutive tier 1 STTM finishes pre-2025 (#1, #3, #17, #2) is one of the most dominant four-year OT runs in modern NFL history.
Concerns
- 2025 collapse from tier 1 (#2) to tier 5 (#35) is the most dramatic single-season OL decline on the board this year. Almost certainly injury-driven (knee or back issues widely reported).
- The 5-year, $140.6M extension signed in summer 2024 means dead money if the 2025 injury issues are not fully behind him by 2026.
What to watch: Whether Wirfs returns to tier 1 (#5 or better) production in 2026 once healthy or whether the 2025 sample indicates a structural decline at 27.