Buffalo Bills playoff chances, Week 10

99%chance to make the playoffs7-1, 1st in the AFC East, the AFC's No. 1 seed today

93%win the AFC East42%No. 1 seed16%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Bills (7-1) have a 99% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 93% chance to win the AFC East and a 42% chance at the No. 1 seed. The Bills made the playoffs in 2,990 of 3,000 simulated seasons. They are 1st in the AFC East and would be the AFC's No. 1 seed if the season ended today.

What do the Bills need in Week 10?

at Jets, Sunday, 1:00 PM ETThe Bills win it 80% of the time

No. 1 seed with a win48%

No. 1 seed with a loss24%

The Bills are 99% to make the playoffs and 93% to win the AFC East, so the race now is the No. 1 seed and the bye. Beat the Jets and their chance at the No. 1 seed is 48%. Lose and it is 24%.

Who should Bills fans root for in Week 10?

Titans over JaguarsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their No. 1 seed chance

50%vs42%

Lions over PatriotsSunday, 9:30 AM ET · moves their division chance

96%vs89%

The Bills’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Bills playoff odds by final record

9-8 gets the Bills in 53% of the time: 2 more wins in the last 9 games. At 10-7 it is 93%.

16-1100%3% of seasons

15-2100%13% of seasons

14-3100%25% of seasons

13-4100%28% of seasons

12-5100%20% of seasons

11-6100%9% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Bills finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Bills playoff seed odds

The Bills' most likely seed is No. 1 (42%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

42%No. 1

25%No. 2

16%No. 3

11%No. 4

3%No. 5

3%No. 6

1%No. 7

<1%Miss

Bills remaining schedule

9 games left. At each game’s win chance the Bills finish about 13-4.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Bills win
10	at Jets	Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET	80%
11	vs Dolphins	Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET	84%
12	vs Chiefs	Thu, Nov 26, 8:20 PM ET	63%
13	at Patriots	Sun, Dec 6, 4:25 PM ET	54%
14	at Packers	Sun, Dec 13, 8:20 PM ET	56%
15	vs Bears	Sat, Dec 19, 8:20 PM ET	63%

Show the last 3 games

16	at Broncos	Fri, Dec 25, 4:30 PM ET	56%
17	at Dolphins	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	76%
18	vs Jets	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	83%

Where would the Bills pick if they miss the playoffs?

The Bills missed the playoffs in only 90 of 20,000 simulated seasons, too few to project a range. In those seasons the pick landed around No. 17.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Bills as GM

The AFC East race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Bills	7-1	99%	93%
Patriots	5-4	71%	7%
Jets	2-7	<1%	0%
Dolphins	1-7	0%	0%

AFC East playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Bills’ games yourself

Bills playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Bills' playoff chances right now?

99%. The Bills are 7-1, 1st in the AFC East, the AFC's No. 1 seed today. They win the AFC East in 93% of simulated seasons, take the No. 1 seed in 42% and win the Super Bowl in 16%.

What record do the Bills need to make the playoffs?

9-8 gets the Bills in 53% of the time: 2 more wins in the last 9 games. At 10-7 it is 93%.

Can the Bills still win the AFC East?

Yes. The Bills lead the AFC East at 7-1 and win it in 93% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

Buffalo Bills playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.