Denver Broncos playoff chances, Week 10

95%chance to make the playoffs7-2, 1st in the AFC West, the AFC's No. 2 seed today

54%win the AFC West14%No. 1 seed4%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Broncos (7-2) have a 95% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 54% chance to win the AFC West and a 14% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 1st in the AFC West and would be the AFC's No. 2 seed if the season ended today.

What do the Broncos need in Week 10?

The Broncos are off in Week 10. Their chances move only on other teams' results.

Who should Broncos fans root for in Week 10?

Falcons over ChiefsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their division chance

64%vs49%

Jets over BillsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their No. 1 seed chance

18%vs13%

Titans over JaguarsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their No. 1 seed chance

17%vs13%

Seahawks over RaidersSunday, 4:05 PM ET · moves their playoff chance

96%vs94%

Lions over PatriotsSunday, 9:30 AM ET · moves their playoff chance

96%vs94%

The Broncos’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Broncos playoff odds by final record

10-7 gets the Broncos in 85% of the time: 3 more wins in the last 8 games. At 11-6 it is 100%.

14-3100%9% of seasons

13-4100%22% of seasons

12-5100%29% of seasons

11-6100%24% of seasons

10-785%11% of seasons

9-826%4% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Broncos finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Broncos playoff seed odds

The Broncos' most likely seed is No. 5 (22%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

14%No. 1

14%No. 2

14%No. 3

12%No. 4

22%No. 5

11%No. 6

7%No. 7

5%Miss

Broncos remaining schedule

8 games left. At each game’s win chance the Broncos finish about 12-5.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Broncos win
11	vs Raiders	Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET	74%
12	at Steelers	Fri, Nov 27, 3:00 PM ET	44%
13	vs Dolphins	Sun, Dec 6, 4:05 PM ET	76%
14	at Jets	Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET	65%
15	at Raiders	Sun, Dec 20, 4:25 PM ET	63%
16	vs Bills	Fri, Dec 25, 4:30 PM ET	44%

Show the last 2 games

17	at Patriots	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	42%
18	vs Chargers	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	75%

Where would the Broncos pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 17typical first-round pick in the seasons the Broncos miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Broncos miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 17, and between No. 15 and No. 18 in 8 of every 10.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Broncos as GM

The AFC West race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Broncos	7-2	95%	54%
Chiefs	6-2	94%	45%
Raiders	4-5	7%	<1%
Chargers	0-8	0%	0%

AFC West playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Broncos’ games yourself

Broncos playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Broncos' playoff chances right now?

95%. The Broncos are 7-2, 1st in the AFC West, the AFC's No. 2 seed today. They win the AFC West in 54% of simulated seasons, take the No. 1 seed in 14% and win the Super Bowl in 4%.

What record do the Broncos need to make the playoffs?

10-7 gets the Broncos in 85% of the time: 3 more wins in the last 8 games. At 11-6 it is 100%.

Can the Broncos still win the AFC West?

Yes. The Broncos lead the AFC West at 7-2 and win it in 54% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

Denver Broncos playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.