Kansas City Chiefs playoff chances, Week 10

94%chance to make the playoffs6-2, 2nd in the AFC West, the AFC's No. 5 seed today

45%win the AFC West9%No. 1 seed5%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Chiefs (6-2) have a 94% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 45% chance to win the AFC West and a 9% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 2nd in the AFC West and would be the AFC's No. 5 seed if the season ended today.

What do the Chiefs need in Week 10?

at Falcons, Sunday, 1:00 PM ETThe Chiefs win it 62% of the time

Division with a win50%

Division with a loss35%

The Chiefs are 94% to make the playoffs, so the race now is the AFC West. Beat the Falcons and their chance to win the division is 50%. Lose and it is 35%.

Who should Chiefs fans root for in Week 10?

Titans over JaguarsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their No. 1 seed chance

11%vs8%

Jets over BillsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their No. 1 seed chance

11%vs8%

Lions over PatriotsSunday, 9:30 AM ET · moves their playoff chance

95%vs94%

Seahawks over RaidersSunday, 4:05 PM ET · moves their playoff chance

95%vs94%

The Chiefs’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Chiefs playoff odds by final record

9-8 gets the Chiefs in 66% of the time: 3 more wins in the last 9 games. At 10-7 it is 96%.

14-3100%5% of seasons

13-4100%14% of seasons

12-5100%25% of seasons

11-6100%27% of seasons

10-796%18% of seasons

9-866%8% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Chiefs finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Chiefs playoff seed odds

The Chiefs' most likely seed is No. 5 (25%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

9%No. 1

10%No. 2

14%No. 3

12%No. 4

25%No. 5

15%No. 6

9%No. 7

6%Miss

Chiefs remaining schedule

9 games left. At each game’s win chance the Chiefs finish about 11-6.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Chiefs win
10	at Falcons	Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET	62%
11	vs Cardinals	Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET	80%
12	at Bills	Thu, Nov 26, 8:20 PM ET	37%
13	at Rams	Thu, Dec 3, 8:15 PM ET	43%
14	at Bengals	Sun, Dec 13, 4:25 PM ET	48%
15	vs Patriots	Mon, Dec 21, 8:15 PM ET	59%

Show the last 3 games

16	vs 49ers	Sun, Dec 27, 4:25 PM ET	51%
17	at Chargers	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	70%
18	vs Raiders	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	77%

Where would the Chiefs pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 16typical first-round pick in the seasons the Chiefs miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Chiefs miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 16, and between No. 13 and No. 18 in 8 of every 10. It is a top-10 pick in 3% of those seasons.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Chiefs as GM

The AFC West race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Broncos	7-2	95%	54%
Chiefs	6-2	94%	45%
Raiders	4-5	7%	<1%
Chargers	0-8	0%	0%

AFC West playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Chiefs’ games yourself

Chiefs playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Chiefs' playoff chances right now?

94%. The Chiefs are 6-2, 2nd in the AFC West, the AFC's No. 5 seed today. They win the AFC West in 45% of simulated seasons, take the No. 1 seed in 9% and win the Super Bowl in 5%.

What record do the Chiefs need to make the playoffs?

9-8 gets the Chiefs in 66% of the time: 3 more wins in the last 9 games. At 10-7 it is 96%.

Can the Chiefs still win the AFC West?

Yes. The Broncos lead the AFC West at 7-2, and the Chiefs (6-2) win the division in 45% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

Kansas City Chiefs playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.