Chicago Bears playoff chances, Week 10

85%chance to make the playoffs7-2, 1st in the NFC North, the NFC's No. 2 seed today

30%win the NFC North14%No. 1 seed6%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Bears (7-2) have an 85% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 30% chance to win the NFC North and a 14% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 1st in the NFC North and would be the NFC's No. 2 seed if the season ended today.

What do the Bears need in Week 10?

The Bears are off in Week 10. Their chances move only on other teams' results.

Who should Bears fans root for in Week 10?

Cowboys over 49ersSunday, 4:25 PM ET · moves their No. 1 seed chance

19%vs12%

Patriots over LionsSunday, 9:30 AM ET · moves their division chance

32%vs27%

Packers over VikingsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their division chance

31%vs26%

Cardinals over RamsSunday, 4:05 PM ET · moves their playoff chance

87%vs84%

Raiders over SeahawksSunday, 4:05 PM ET · moves their playoff chance

86%vs84%

Titans over JaguarsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their playoff chance

86%vs84%

The Bears’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Bears playoff odds by final record

10-7 gets the Bears in 62% of the time: 3 more wins in the last 8 games. At 11-6 it is 96%.

14-3100%5% of seasons

13-4100%15% of seasons

12-5100%26% of seasons

11-696%27% of seasons

10-762%18% of seasons

9-815%7% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Bears finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Bears playoff seed odds

The Bears' most likely seed is No. 5 (22%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

14%No. 1

16%No. 2

<1%No. 3

0%No. 4

22%No. 5

18%No. 6

15%No. 7

15%Miss

Bears remaining schedule

8 games left. At each game’s win chance the Bears finish about 11-6.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Bears win
11	vs Saints	Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET	74%
12	at Lions	Thu, Nov 26, 1:00 PM ET	46%
13	vs Jaguars	Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET	41%
14	at Dolphins	Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET	70%
15	at Bills	Sat, Dec 19, 8:20 PM ET	37%
16	vs Packers	Fri, Dec 25, 1:00 PM ET	60%

Show the last 2 games

17	vs Lions	Sun, Jan 3, 4:25 PM ET	58%
18	at Vikings	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	49%

Where would the Bears pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 18typical first-round pick in the seasons the Bears miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Bears miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 18, and between No. 16 and No. 18 in 8 of every 10. That pick belongs to the Titans after a trade.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Bears as GM

The NFC North race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Bears	7-2	85%	30%
Lions	6-2	82%	34%
Vikings	6-2	78%	24%
Packers	6-3	64%	12%

NFC North playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Bears’ games yourself

Bears playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Bears' playoff chances right now?

85%. The Bears are 7-2, 1st in the NFC North, the NFC's No. 2 seed today. They win the NFC North in 30% of simulated seasons, take the No. 1 seed in 14% and win the Super Bowl in 6%.

What record do the Bears need to make the playoffs?

10-7 gets the Bears in 62% of the time: 3 more wins in the last 8 games. At 11-6 it is 96%.

Can the Bears still win the NFC North?

Yes. The Bears lead the NFC North at 7-2 and win it in 30% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

Chicago Bears playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.