New England Patriots playoff chances, Week 10

71%chance to make the playoffs5-4, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC's No. 7 seed today

7%win the AFC East<1%No. 1 seed2%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Patriots (5-4) have a 71% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 7% chance to win the AFC East and less than a 1% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 2nd in the AFC East and would be the AFC's No. 7 seed if the season ended today.

What do the Patriots need in Week 10?

at Lions, Sunday, 9:30 AM ETThe Patriots win it 43% of the time

Playoffs with a win82%

Playoffs with a loss61%

Beat the Lions and the Patriots' playoff chance is 82%. Lose and it is 61%.

Who should Patriots fans root for in Week 10?

Jets over BillsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their division chance

14%vs5%

The Patriots’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Patriots playoff odds by final record

9-8 gets the Patriots in 63% of the time: 4 more wins in the last 8 games. At 10-7 it is 96%.

12-5100%6% of seasons

11-6100%18% of seasons

10-796%27% of seasons

9-863%26% of seasons

8-914%15% of seasons

7-101%5% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Patriots finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Patriots playoff seed odds

The Patriots' most likely seed is No. 7 (24%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

<1%No. 1

1%No. 2

3%No. 3

3%No. 4

17%No. 5

22%No. 6

24%No. 7

29%Miss

Patriots remaining schedule

8 games left. At each game’s win chance the Patriots finish about 10-7.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Patriots win
10	at Lions	Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET	43%
12	at Chargers	Sun, Nov 29, 8:20 PM ET	67%
13	vs Bills	Sun, Dec 6, 4:25 PM ET	46%
14	vs Vikings	Thu, Dec 10, 8:15 PM ET	58%
15	at Chiefs	Mon, Dec 21, 8:15 PM ET	41%
16	at Jets	Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET	66%

Show the last 2 games

17	vs Broncos	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	58%
18	vs Dolphins	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	77%

Where would the Patriots pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 16typical first-round pick in the seasons the Patriots miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Patriots miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 16, and between No. 12 and No. 18 in 8 of every 10. It is a top-10 pick in 4% of those seasons.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Patriots as GM

The AFC East race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Bills	7-1	99%	93%
Patriots	5-4	71%	7%
Jets	2-7	<1%	0%
Dolphins	1-7	0%	0%

AFC East playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Patriots’ games yourself

Patriots playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Patriots' playoff chances right now?

71%. The Patriots are 5-4, 2nd in the AFC East, the AFC's No. 7 seed today. They win the AFC East in 7% of simulated seasons, take the No. 1 seed in <1% and win the Super Bowl in 2%.

What record do the Patriots need to make the playoffs?

9-8 gets the Patriots in 63% of the time: 4 more wins in the last 8 games. At 10-7 it is 96%.

Can the Patriots still win the AFC East?

It would take help. The Bills lead the AFC East at 7-1, and the Patriots (5-4) win the division in 7% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

New England Patriots playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.