NFC North playoff picture, Week 10

34%Lions to win the NFC North6-2, 2nd in the division today

30%Bears 24%Vikings 12%Packers

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Lions (6-2) win the NFC North in 34% of 3,000 simulated seasons heading into Week 10; the Bears (7-2) lead it today. The Bears, Lions, Vikings and Packers make the playoffs more often than not.

NFC North standings and playoff odds

Team	Record	Division	Playoffs	Win division	No. 1 seed
Bears	7-2	0-2	85%	30%	14%
Lions	6-2	2-0	82%	34%	14%
Vikings	6-2	2-1	78%	24%	10%
Packers	6-3	1-2	64%	12%	4%

Chances from 3,000 simulated seasons, official NFL tiebreakers applied.

What does each NFC North team need in Week 10?

BearsOff this week

Lionsvs Patriots, Sunday, 9:30 AM ET · win it 57%

87%vs75%Playoffs, win vs loss

Vikingsat Packers, Sunday, 1:00 PM ET · win it 34%

92%vs72%Playoffs, win vs loss

Packersvs Vikings, Sunday, 1:00 PM ET · win it 66%

74%vs44%Playoffs, win vs loss

Each team’s chance with a win, then with a loss, on the race it is still in: the playoffs, then the division, then the No. 1 seed. 20,000 simulated seasons.

What record gets each NFC North team in?

Bears10-7 gets them in 62% of the time: 3 more wins in the last 8 games. At 11-6 it is 96%.

Lions10-7 gets them in 71% of the time: 4 more wins in the last 9 games. At 11-6 it is 97%.

Vikings10-7 gets them in 74% of the time: 4 more wins in the last 9 games. At 11-6 it is 98%.

Packers10-7 gets them in 61% of the time: 4 more wins in the last 8 games. At 11-6 it is 96%.

NFC North division games left

Vikings at PackersWeek 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET

66%Packers win

Bears at LionsWeek 12 · Thu, Nov 26, 1:00 PM ET

54%Lions win

Lions at VikingsWeek 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 8:20 PM ET

53%Vikings win

Packers at BearsWeek 16 · Fri, Dec 25, 1:00 PM ET

60%Bears win

Lions at BearsWeek 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 4:25 PM ET

58%Bears win

Lions at PackersWeek 18 · Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET

53%Packers win

Show 1 more games

Bears at VikingsWeek 18 · Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET

51%Vikings win

Pick the NFC North games yourself

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NFC North playoff picture: quick answers

Who is going to win the NFC North?

The Lions are the favorite: they win the NFC North in 34% of 3,000 simulated seasons. Behind them: the Bears at 30%, the Vikings at 24% and the Packers at 12%.

Which NFC North teams will make the playoffs?

Chance to make the playoffs, division title or wild card: the Bears (7-2) 85%, the Lions (6-2) 82%, the Vikings (6-2) 78% and the Packers (6-3) 64%.

How many NFC North teams can make the playoffs?

Up to all four. The NFC North winner gets one of the NFC's top four seeds, and the three wild cards go to the NFC teams with the best records that did not win a division, so one division can send four teams.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

NFC North playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.