Minnesota Vikings playoff chances, Week 10

78%chance to make the playoffs6-2, 3rd in the NFC North, the NFC's No. 6 seed today

24%win the NFC North10%No. 1 seed3%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Vikings (6-2) have a 78% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 24% chance to win the NFC North and a 10% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 3rd in the NFC North and would be the NFC's No. 6 seed if the season ended today.

What do the Vikings need in Week 10?

at Packers, Sunday, 1:00 PM ETThe Vikings win it 34% of the time

Playoffs with a win92%

Playoffs with a loss72%

Beat the Packers and the Vikings' playoff chance is 92%. Lose and it is 72%.

Who should Vikings fans root for in Week 10?

Patriots over LionsSunday, 9:30 AM ET · moves their division chance

28%vs22%

Cowboys over 49ersSunday, 4:25 PM ET · moves their No. 1 seed chance

13%vs9%

Raiders over SeahawksSunday, 4:05 PM ET · moves their playoff chance

80%vs78%

Cardinals over RamsSunday, 4:05 PM ET · moves their playoff chance

81%vs78%

The Vikings’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Vikings playoff odds by final record

10-7 gets the Vikings in 74% of the time: 4 more wins in the last 9 games. At 11-6 it is 98%.

13-4100%10% of seasons

12-5100%21% of seasons

11-698%27% of seasons

10-774%22% of seasons

9-821%12% of seasons

8-91%4% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Vikings finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Vikings playoff seed odds

The Vikings' most likely seed is No. 5 (21%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

10%No. 1

13%No. 2

<1%No. 3

0%No. 4

21%No. 5

19%No. 6

14%No. 7

22%Miss

Vikings remaining schedule

9 games left. At each game’s win chance the Vikings finish about 11-6.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Vikings win
10	at Packers	Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET	34%
11	at 49ers	Sun, Nov 22, 8:20 PM ET	34%
12	vs Falcons	Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET	69%
13	vs Panthers	Sun, Dec 6, 4:25 PM ET	68%
14	at Patriots	Thu, Dec 10, 8:15 PM ET	42%
15	vs Lions	Sun, Dec 20, 8:20 PM ET	53%

Show the last 3 games

16	vs Commanders	Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET	70%
17	at Jets	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	65%
18	vs Bears	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	51%

Where would the Vikings pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 17typical first-round pick in the seasons the Vikings miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Vikings miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 17, and between No. 15 and No. 18 in 8 of every 10.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Vikings as GM

The NFC North race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Bears	7-2	85%	30%
Lions	6-2	82%	34%
Vikings	6-2	78%	24%
Packers	6-3	64%	12%

NFC North playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Vikings’ games yourself

Vikings playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Vikings' playoff chances right now?

78%. The Vikings are 6-2, 3rd in the NFC North, the NFC's No. 6 seed today. They win the NFC North in 24% of simulated seasons, take the No. 1 seed in 10% and win the Super Bowl in 3%.

What record do the Vikings need to make the playoffs?

10-7 gets the Vikings in 74% of the time: 4 more wins in the last 9 games. At 11-6 it is 98%.

Can the Vikings still win the NFC North?

Yes. The Bears lead the NFC North at 7-2, and the Vikings (6-2) win the division in 24% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

Minnesota Vikings playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.