New Orleans Saints playoff chances, Week 10

18%chance to make the playoffs3-5, 2nd in the NFC South, outside the NFC field today

17%win the NFC South0%No. 1 seed<1%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Saints (3-5) have an 18% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 17% chance to win the NFC South and a 0% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 2nd in the NFC South and would be outside the NFC field if the season ended today.

What do the Saints need in Week 10?

vs Panthers, Sunday, 1:00 PM ETThe Saints win it 52% of the time

Playoffs with a win26%

Playoffs with a loss8%

Beat the Panthers and the Saints' playoff chance is 26%. Lose and it is 8%.

Who should Saints fans root for in Week 10?

Chiefs over FalconsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their division chance

18%vs15%

The Saints’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Saints playoff odds by final record

9-8 gets the Saints in 83% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 9 games. At 10-7 it is 99%.

9-883%8% of seasons

8-938%18% of seasons

7-105%26% of seasons

6-110%25% of seasons

5-120%15% of seasons

4-130%5% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Saints finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Saints playoff seed odds

The Saints' most likely seed is No. 4 (12%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

0%No. 1

<1%No. 2

5%No. 3

12%No. 4

0%No. 5

<1%No. 6

<1%No. 7

82%Miss

Saints remaining schedule

9 games left. At each game’s win chance the Saints finish about 7-10.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Saints win
10	vs Panthers	Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET	52%
11	at Bears	Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET	26%
12	at Bengals	Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET	29%
13	vs Packers	Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET	40%
14	at Panthers	Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET	41%
15	at Buccaneers	Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET	32%

Show the last 3 games

16	vs Cardinals	Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET	64%
17	at Falcons	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	42%
18	vs Buccaneers	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	43%

Where would the Saints pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 9typical first-round pick in the seasons the Saints miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Saints miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 9, and between No. 5 and No. 14 in 8 of every 10. It is a top-5 pick in 16% of those seasons.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Saints as GM

The NFC South race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Panthers	3-5	24%	24%
Saints	3-5	18%	17%
Buccaneers	3-6	47%	46%
Falcons	3-6	13%	13%

NFC South playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Saints’ games yourself

Saints playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Saints' playoff chances right now?

18%. The Saints are 3-5, 2nd in the NFC South, outside the NFC field today. They win the NFC South in 17% of simulated seasons and win the Super Bowl in <1%.

What record do the Saints need to make the playoffs?

9-8 gets the Saints in 83% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 9 games. At 10-7 it is 99%.

Can the Saints still win the NFC South?

It would take help. The Panthers lead the NFC South at 3-5, and the Saints (3-5) win the division in 17% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

New Orleans Saints playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.