Detroit Lions playoff chances, Week 10

82%chance to make the playoffs6-2, 2nd in the NFC North, the NFC's No. 5 seed today

34%win the NFC North14%No. 1 seed5%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Lions (6-2) have an 82% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 34% chance to win the NFC North and a 14% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 2nd in the NFC North and would be the NFC's No. 5 seed if the season ended today.

What do the Lions need in Week 10?

vs Patriots, Sunday, 9:30 AM ETThe Lions win it 57% of the time

Playoffs with a win87%

Playoffs with a loss75%

Beat the Patriots and the Lions' playoff chance is 87%. Lose and it is 75%.

Who should Lions fans root for in Week 10?

Cowboys over 49ersSunday, 4:25 PM ET · moves their No. 1 seed chance

20%vs13%

Packers over VikingsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their division chance

36%vs31%

Cardinals over RamsSunday, 4:05 PM ET · moves their playoff chance

84%vs81%

The Lions’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Lions playoff odds by final record

10-7 gets the Lions in 71% of the time: 4 more wins in the last 9 games. At 11-6 it is 97%.

14-3100%4% of seasons

13-4100%13% of seasons

12-5100%23% of seasons

11-697%26% of seasons

10-771%20% of seasons

9-817%10% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Lions finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Lions playoff seed odds

The Lions' most likely seed is No. 2 (19%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

14%No. 1

19%No. 2

<1%No. 3

<1%No. 4

19%No. 5

16%No. 6

13%No. 7

18%Miss

Lions remaining schedule

9 games left. At each game’s win chance the Lions finish about 11-6.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Lions win
10	vs Patriots	Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET	57%
11	vs Buccaneers	Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET	62%
12	vs Bears	Thu, Nov 26, 1:00 PM ET	54%
13	at Falcons	Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET	61%
14	vs Titans	Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET	79%
15	at Vikings	Sun, Dec 20, 8:20 PM ET	47%

Show the last 3 games

16	vs Giants	Mon, Dec 28, 8:15 PM ET	65%
17	at Bears	Sun, Jan 3, 4:25 PM ET	42%
18	at Packers	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	47%

Where would the Lions pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 17typical first-round pick in the seasons the Lions miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Lions miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 17, and between No. 14 and No. 18 in 8 of every 10.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Lions as GM

The NFC North race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Bears	7-2	85%	30%
Lions	6-2	82%	34%
Vikings	6-2	78%	24%
Packers	6-3	64%	12%

NFC North playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Lions’ games yourself

Lions playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Lions' playoff chances right now?

82%. The Lions are 6-2, 2nd in the NFC North, the NFC's No. 5 seed today. They win the NFC North in 34% of simulated seasons, take the No. 1 seed in 14% and win the Super Bowl in 5%.

What record do the Lions need to make the playoffs?

10-7 gets the Lions in 71% of the time: 4 more wins in the last 9 games. At 11-6 it is 97%.

Can the Lions still win the NFC North?

Yes. The Bears lead the NFC North at 7-2, and the Lions (6-2) win the division in 34% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

Detroit Lions playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.