Dallas Cowboys playoff chances, Week 10

25%chance to make the playoffs4-5, 2nd in the NFC East, outside the NFC field today

25%win the NFC East0%No. 1 seed<1%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Cowboys (4-5) have a 25% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 25% chance to win the NFC East and a 0% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 2nd in the NFC East and would be outside the NFC field if the season ended today.

What do the Cowboys need in Week 10?

vs 49ers, Sunday, 4:25 PM ETThe Cowboys win it 34% of the time

Playoffs with a win36%

Playoffs with a loss19%

Beat the 49ers and the Cowboys' playoff chance is 36%. Lose and it is 19%.

Who should Cowboys fans root for in Week 10?

No other game in Week 10 moves the Cowboys by a full point.

Cowboys playoff odds by final record

9-8 gets the Cowboys in 53% of the time: 5 more wins in the last 8 games. At 11-6 it is 99%.

10-790%8% of seasons

9-853%19% of seasons

8-917%29% of seasons

7-102%25% of seasons

6-110%13% of seasons

5-120%4% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Cowboys finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Cowboys playoff seed odds

The Cowboys' most likely seed is No. 3 (13%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

0%No. 1

<1%No. 2

13%No. 3

11%No. 4

0%No. 5

<1%No. 6

<1%No. 7

75%Miss

Cowboys remaining schedule

8 games left. At each game’s win chance the Cowboys finish about 8-9.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Cowboys win
10	vs 49ers	Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET	34%
11	vs Titans	Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET	73%
12	vs Eagles	Thu, Nov 26, 4:30 PM ET	66%
13	at Seahawks	Mon, Dec 7, 8:15 PM ET	30%
15	at Rams	Sun, Dec 20, 4:25 PM ET	32%
16	vs Jaguars	Sun, Dec 27, 8:20 PM ET	32%

Show the last 2 games

17	vs Giants	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	57%
18	at Commanders	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	54%

Where would the Cowboys pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 11typical first-round pick in the seasons the Cowboys miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Cowboys miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 11, and between No. 7 and No. 15 in 8 of every 10. It is a top-5 pick in 6% of those seasons. That pick is part of a swap: the Jets get the better of the Cowboys' and Packers' first-round picks, and the Cowboys get the other.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Cowboys as GM

The NFC East race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Giants	5-3-1	65%	64%
Cowboys	4-5	25%	25%
Commanders	3-5-1	11%	11%
Eagles	2-7	<1%	<1%

NFC East playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Cowboys’ games yourself

Cowboys playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Cowboys' playoff chances right now?

25%. The Cowboys are 4-5, 2nd in the NFC East, outside the NFC field today. They win the NFC East in 25% of simulated seasons and win the Super Bowl in <1%.

What record do the Cowboys need to make the playoffs?

9-8 gets the Cowboys in 53% of the time: 5 more wins in the last 8 games. At 11-6 it is 99%.

Can the Cowboys still win the NFC East?

Yes. The Giants lead the NFC East at 5-3-1, and the Cowboys (4-5) win the division in 25% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

Dallas Cowboys playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.