Washington Commanders playoff chances, Week 10

11%chance to make the playoffs3-5-1, 3rd in the NFC East, outside the NFC field today

11%win the NFC East0%No. 1 seed<1%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Commanders (3-5-1) have an 11% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, an 11% chance to win the NFC East and a 0% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 3rd in the NFC East and would be outside the NFC field if the season ended today.

What do the Commanders need in Week 10?

The Commanders are off in Week 10. Their chances move only on other teams' results.

Who should Commanders fans root for in Week 10?

49ers over CowboysSunday, 4:25 PM ET · moves their playoff chance

12%vs9%

The Commanders’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Commanders playoff odds by final record

9-7-1 gets the Commanders in 76% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 8 games. At 10-6-1 it is 98%.

9-7-176%4% of seasons

8-8-135%14% of seasons

7-9-17%25% of seasons

6-10-10%28% of seasons

5-11-10%19% of seasons

4-12-10%7% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Commanders finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Commanders playoff seed odds

The Commanders' most likely seed is No. 3 (6%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

0%No. 1

<1%No. 2

6%No. 3

4%No. 4

0%No. 5

<1%No. 6

<1%No. 7

89%Miss

Commanders remaining schedule

8 games left. At each game’s win chance the Commanders finish about 6-10-1.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Commanders win
11	vs Bengals	Mon, Nov 23, 8:15 PM ET	40%
12	at Cardinals	Sun, Nov 29, 4:25 PM ET	53%
13	at Titans	Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET	53%
14	vs Texans	Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET	39%
15	vs Falcons	Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET	54%
16	at Vikings	Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET	30%

Show the last 2 games

17	at Jaguars	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	16%
18	vs Cowboys	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	46%

Where would the Commanders pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 10typical first-round pick in the seasons the Commanders miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Commanders miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 10, and between No. 5 and No. 15 in 8 of every 10. It is a top-5 pick in 11% of those seasons.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Commanders as GM

The NFC East race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Giants	5-3-1	65%	64%
Cowboys	4-5	25%	25%
Commanders	3-5-1	11%	11%
Eagles	2-7	<1%	<1%

NFC East playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Commanders’ games yourself

Commanders playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Commanders' playoff chances right now?

11%. The Commanders are 3-5-1, 3rd in the NFC East, outside the NFC field today. They win the NFC East in 11% of simulated seasons and win the Super Bowl in <1%.

What record do the Commanders need to make the playoffs?

9-7-1 gets the Commanders in 76% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 8 games. At 10-6-1 it is 98%.

Can the Commanders still win the NFC East?

It would take help. The Giants lead the NFC East at 5-3-1, and the Commanders (3-5-1) win the division in 11% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

Washington Commanders playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.