San Francisco 49ers playoff chances, Week 10

98%chance to make the playoffs7-1, 1st in the NFC West, the NFC's No. 1 seed today

90%win the NFC West55%No. 1 seed16%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The 49ers (7-1) have a 98% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 90% chance to win the NFC West and a 55% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 1st in the NFC West and would be the NFC's No. 1 seed if the season ended today.

What do the 49ers need in Week 10?

at Cowboys, Sunday, 4:25 PM ETThe 49ers win it 66% of the time

No. 1 seed with a win61%

No. 1 seed with a loss38%

The 49ers are 98% to make the playoffs and 90% to win the NFC West, so the race now is the No. 1 seed and the bye. Beat the Cowboys and their chance at the No. 1 seed is 61%. Lose and it is 38%.

Who should 49ers fans root for in Week 10?

Patriots over LionsSunday, 9:30 AM ET · moves their No. 1 seed chance

57%vs50%

Raiders over SeahawksSunday, 4:05 PM ET · moves their division chance

92%vs88%

Cardinals over RamsSunday, 4:05 PM ET · moves their division chance

92%vs89%

Vikings over PackersSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their playoff chance

98%vs97%

The 49ers’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

49ers playoff odds by final record

10-7 gets the 49ers in 70% of the time: 3 more wins in the last 9 games. At 11-6 it is 99%.

15-2100%10% of seasons

14-3100%22% of seasons

13-4100%28% of seasons

12-5100%22% of seasons

11-699%12% of seasons

10-770%4% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the 49ers finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

49ers playoff seed odds

The 49ers' most likely seed is No. 1 (55%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

55%No. 1

33%No. 2

2%No. 3

<1%No. 4

3%No. 5

2%No. 6

3%No. 7

2%Miss

49ers remaining schedule

9 games left. At each game’s win chance the 49ers finish about 13-4.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	49ers win
10	at Cowboys	Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET	66%
11	vs Vikings	Sun, Nov 22, 8:20 PM ET	66%
12	vs Seahawks	Sun, Nov 29, 4:25 PM ET	57%
13	at Giants	Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET	61%
14	vs Rams	Sun, Dec 13, 4:25 PM ET	60%
15	at Chargers	Thu, Dec 17, 8:15 PM ET	74%

Show the last 3 games

16	at Chiefs	Sun, Dec 27, 4:25 PM ET	49%
17	vs Eagles	Sun, Jan 3, 8:20 PM ET	78%
18	at Cardinals	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	76%

Where would the 49ers pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 17typical first-round pick in the seasons the 49ers miss the playoffs

In the seasons the 49ers miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 17, and between No. 15 and No. 18 in 8 of every 10.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the 49ers as GM

The NFC West race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
49ers	7-1	98%	90%
Seahawks	5-4	47%	6%
Rams	5-4	43%	3%
Cardinals	3-6	<1%	<1%

NFC West playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the 49ers’ games yourself

49ers playoff chances: quick answers

What are the 49ers' playoff chances right now?

98%. The 49ers are 7-1, 1st in the NFC West, the NFC's No. 1 seed today. They win the NFC West in 90% of simulated seasons, take the No. 1 seed in 55% and win the Super Bowl in 16%.

What record do the 49ers need to make the playoffs?

10-7 gets the 49ers in 70% of the time: 3 more wins in the last 9 games. At 11-6 it is 99%.

Can the 49ers still win the NFC West?

Yes. The 49ers lead the NFC West at 7-1 and win it in 90% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET.

San Francisco 49ers playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET.