The longer bar is the better unit, and it takes its team's colour. A long coloured bar against a short grey one is where a side has the edge.
49ers with the ball
49ers offenseSeahawks defense
2nd
Passing
2nd
6th
Run game
2nd
2nd
Pass rush
4th
1st
Third down
3rd
3rd
Big plays
1st
10th
Turnovers
1st
1st
Red zone
26th
Seahawks with the ball
Seahawks offense49ers defense
14th
Passing
14thi
31st
Run game
29th
27th
Pass rush
27th
31st
Third down
28th
5th
Big plays
2nd
25th
Turnovers
24th
15th
Red zone
4th
Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 4 as they stood at kickoff, close-game snaps. "Faced" is the average rank of the units across from them so far.
The tale of the tape
This game is decided near the goal line. The 49ers are 1st at finishing red-zone trips with touchdowns, and they get a Seahawks red-zone defense that ranks 26th, though 22nd once you account for the offenses it has faced. Since 2015, teams with an edge this big won 57% of the time but covered only 54%, because the line already knows. San Francisco is built to grind: 3rd-most snaps under center, 3rd-least in no-huddle, and Christian McCaffrey has a rushing touchdown in 8 of his last 10 outdoor games. Getting there is the hard part. Seattle is 2nd against the run, facing a 49ers run game that ranks 6th, and 1st at picking off the ball, against an offense 10th at avoiding interceptions. If the run stalls and Brock Purdy has to throw, that is where the game flips.
Seattle's best weapon is the big play, 5th in the league, against a 49ers defense that allows the 2nd-fewest, so the Seahawks need long drives with a run game ranked 31st and a third-down offense ranked 31st. That puts it on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who draws 36% of the targets and has 75+ receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 division games. For the bet, the history and the angles agree on the total and split on the side. The 49ers have gone over 10 of 13 on the road in division games, and past games like this one back Over 47.5 at about twice luck's count. The 49ers have also covered 10 of 13 in that spot, while the angles back Seahawks -3 at 2.4x luck.
Team totals
49ers scored 32 against a team total of 21.75: over. the spread and total, split; ours 24.7, 3.0 over.
Seahawks scored 29 against a team total of 24.75: over. the spread and total, split; ours 24.5, 0.2 under.
Team trends
Each team's own record in a spot like this one, against its record everywhere else. A reason to lean, not a bet.
49ers have covered 10 of 13 on the road in a division gamecovered
29 of 59 everywhere else, 2022-2026, Shanahan and Purdy · points to 49ers +3
10 of 13in this spot
49ers have gone over 10 of 13 on the road in a division gamehit, 61 points
30 of 57 everywhere else, 2022-2026, Shanahan and Purdy · points to Over 46.5
10 of 13in this spot
49ers have gone over 7 of 10 as an underdoghit, 61 points
33 of 60 everywhere else, 2022-2026, Shanahan and Purdy · points to Over 46.5
7 of 10in this spot
1 more team trends
Seahawks have covered 3 of the last 4 meetings
Last time, 2025 week 20: 49ers 6, Seahawks 41, Seahawks covered.
3-1against the spread
Team angles
Every past game that looked like this one, counted by the side it covered. More of them than luck would give point at Over 46.5 and Seahawks -3.
Over 46.5stronghit, 61 points
1,966 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 814.
2.4xluck's count
Seahawks -3somemissed
1,569 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 618.
2.5xluck's count
Player trends
Each player's own record in a spot like this one, his best stat first.
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRhit, 102 rec yds
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 9 of his last 10 games in division games with 75+ receiving yards. 15 of 36 everywhere else, 2024-2026.
9 of 10last 10
Christian McCaffreyRBhit, 1 rush TD
Christian McCaffrey has 8 of his last 10 games outdoors with a rushing touchdown. 6 of 12 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
8 of 10last 10
Mike EvansWRhit, 1 rec TD
Mike Evans has 7 of his last 10 games outdoors as an underdog with a receiving touchdown. 19 of 48 everywhere else, 2022-2024.
7 of 10last 10
5 more player trends
Brock PurdyQBhit, 2 pass TD
Brock Purdy has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with 2+ passing touchdowns. 16 of 29 everywhere else, 2024-2026.
8 of 10last 10
George KittleTEmissed, 24 rec yds
George Kittle has 7 of his last 10 games outdoors with 50+ receiving yards. 6 of 12 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
7 of 10last 10
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRhit, 1 rec TD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 7 of his last 10 games at home as a favorite with a receiving touchdown. 10 of 37 everywhere else, 2024-2026.
7 of 10last 10
Christian McCaffreyRBhit, 68 rush yds
Christian McCaffrey has 9 of his last 10 games on the road with 50+ rushing yards. 19 of 30 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
9 of 10last 10
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRmissed, 5 catches
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 6+ catches. 12 of 22 everywhere else, 2025-2026.
8 of 10last 10
Player angles
No player line on this game was archived with a read.
Model plays
Graded: Small plays went 2-0; Watching went 2-4.
Deebo Samuel Sr. under 3.5 catches (-130.0)Small play, 1uwon, 2 catches
His history (prop board): his spot in division games outdoors is over in two of ten, seventeen of twenty-four elsewhere; The script (game read): the Niners run the clock, suppressing receiver volume; His history (season audit): spot receptions unders are confirmed at three hundred fifty-four wins and two hundred fifty-five losses, every season up. Proof A: PR-013 family, spot receptions under Stamped Fri 8:39 AM ET.
Mike Evans under 49.5 receiving yards (-115.0 at DraftKings)Watching, not a betlost, 113 receiving yards
The market: our projection 35.9 receiving yards, first posted at 49.5 (49.5 now); the under by 13% past the price. Proof C: early-week under Stamped Thu 8:36 AM ET.
SF team total Over 21.5 (+100 at Bovada)Watching, not a betwon +0u
The market: our 49ers team total is 24.7, 3.2 points over the posted 21.5. Proof C: team total 2+ off the posted number Stamped Sat 1:01 PM ET.
SF +3 (105.0)Small play, 2uwon +2.1u
The market (points model): our line is essentially pick-em at plus zero point zero six, meaning three points of value on the dog; Team history (team trend): the Niners have covered ten of thirteen on the road in a division game; A rule (bet sheet): the proven angle for a team our model fades by three plus at home with an elite QB in a division game is fifty wins and twenty-eight losses. Proof: no registered rule behind it: the bet score and the read only Stamped Fri 8:39 AM ET.
12 more plays
Cooper Kupp over 24.5 receiving yards (-120.0)Watching, not a betlost, 15 receiving yards
Over in 25 of 32 games, 2024-2026. Proof: no registered rule behind it: the bet score and the read only Stamped Fri 8:39 AM ET.
Emanuel Wilson under 60.5 rushing yards (-115.0)Watching, not a betlost, 61 rushing yards
Under in 32 of 37 games, 2024-2026. Proof: no registered rule behind it: the bet score and the read only Stamped Fri 8:39 AM ET.
George Holani under 19.5 rushing yards (-120.0)Watching, not a betwon, 7 rushing yards
Under in 7 of 10 games, 2024-2026. Proof: no registered rule behind it: the bet score and the read only Stamped Fri 8:39 AM ET.
Brock Purdy over 23.5 rushing yardsWatching, not a betlost, 6 rushing yards
Brock Purdy has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with over 1.5 passing touchdowns. Proof: no registered rule behind it: the bet score and the read only Stamped Sun 12:58 PM ET.
Under 45.5withdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
SEA -3withdrawn
Pulled Oct 8 when it stopped qualifying; it would have lost.
Over 47.5withdrawn
Pulled Oct 8 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Tory Horton over 9.5 receiving yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 10 when it stopped qualifying.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 97.5 receiving yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Christian McCaffrey over 49.5 rushing yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Brock Purdy under 227.5 passing yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
George Kittle under 55.5 receiving yardswithdrawn
Pulled Oct 11 when it stopped qualifying; it would have won.
Where it turned: the red zone. Expect the 49ers to finish drives with touchdowns, not field goals.Sunday: 49ers scored 3 touchdowns.
Seahawks with the ball
