BroncosatCardinals

Longer bar, better unit.

Ranks run 1st (best) to 32nd, 2026 through week 6, close-game snaps.

Fewer people, betting bigger.

Bets is the share of tickets; money is the share of dollars. When the money runs well ahead of the bets, fewer people are betting bigger on that side, the move bettors call sharp money.

Spread

Broncos-4.5+4.5Cardinals

Bets63%37%

Money42%58%

63% of the bets are on the Broncos, but 58% of the money is on the Cardinals.

Since 2018: when most of the bets sat on one side and most of the money on the other, the money side covered 52.5% (178-161-14, 353 games). No better than a coin flip.

Total

Over43.543.5Under

Bets42%58%

Money5%95%

The under: 58% of the bets, 95% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.

Since 2018: when the money ran 20 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side hit 56% (202-159-4, 365 games). Better than a coin flip, but inside the luck line: a random search finds that much by chance.

Moneyline

Broncos-238+195Cardinals

Bets85%15%

Money66%34%

The Cardinals: 15% of the bets, 34% of the money. Fewer people, betting bigger.

Since 2018: when the money ran 15 or more points ahead of the bets on a side, the money side won 57% straight up, +3.4 units at the posted prices (392-296, 688 games). About even once you pay the prices.

Bets and money splits via DraftKings, as of Fri 12:04 PM ET. One book's customers, not the whole market.

Broncos team total 23.5 Bovada, over -125, under -105; the spread and total split it 24.0

Cardinals team total 19.5 Bovada, over -115, under -115; the spread and total split it 19.5

Cardinals +4.5some

655 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 296.

2.2xluck's count

Under 43.5could be luck

2,146 past angles back this side; luck alone would give about 1,603.

1.3xluck's count

Searched this week: 1,216 spread situations and 87 on the total, every attribute on the schedule alone, in pairs and in triples, against every game since 1999. The luck line sits at z 4.04 on the spread and 3.4 on the total.

Cardinals +4.5: the strongest angles

their receivers' height, by targets 74.5 in or more; prev_overtime 1 or less 55-29

last game's spread in their favor (minus = underdog) -7.5 pts or less; the opponent's overs hit this season 22% or less 50-26

the margin two games ago -19 pts or less; the opponent's pass defense ranks 1 or better (1 best, 8 worst) 74-42

Broncos -4.5: the strongest angles

the opponent's defense: tall receivers vs short ones 0.95 x or less; points the opponent allowed a game over the last three 30.67 pts or more 124-86

the opponent's receivers' height over our corners 3.52 in or more; last game's margin minus the opponent's 5 pts or less 228-164

days of rest 10 days or more; what the opponent's defense allows to 6'3"+ receivers vs league 1.13 x or more 58-38

Over 43.5: the strongest angles

how much they beat the spread two games ago -16.5 pts or less; points the opponent allowed last game 14 pts or less 69-35

how far last game went over the total -15.5 pts or less; the referee's cover rate for this side 42% or less 45-23

points they allowed last game 24 pts or less; points they allowed a game over the last three 30.67 pts or more 46-25

Under 43.5: the strongest angles

what the opponent's defense allows to 6'3"+ receivers vs league 1 x or less; prev_overtime 1 or less 76-33

what their defense allows to 6'3"+ receivers vs league 1.13 x or more; the opponent's overs hit this season 40% or less 80-38

what their defense allows to 6'3"+ receivers vs league 1.1 x or more; their injury cost minus the opponent's -13 or less 82-40