Alec Pierce

Indianapolis Colts·#14

Pos WRHt 6'3"Wt 213 lbExp 3 yrCollege Cincinnati

WR rankings →

Model Score

78.3 MODEL

2024

69.4

2025

78.3

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 15 games

4744th

Rec

1,00317th

Rec Yds

617th

Rec TD

8442nd

Targets

66.914th

Yds/Gm

12.226th

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

1.8662nd

EPA / target

2.1 yd106th

Avg separation

6.1 yd

Avg cushion

0.929th

YAC over exp

55.3%

Catch %

STM Take

Pierce's three-year STTM climb (#88 → #42 → #14) coincides with Daniel Jones's tier-2 jump in his first Colts year. The 2025 game log shows the classic vertical-WR pattern: 29.2 (Wk 18), 24.6 (Wk 16) ceilings with 2.6 (Wk 15) and 3.6 (Wk 12) floors. Career 18.7 YPC profile is among the highest in the field. The Indy ecosystem clicked for him in 2025.

Pierce was born in Glen Ellyn, Illinois, attended Glenbard West (his father played tight end at Northwestern), and was a second-team All-AAC pick at Cincinnati. Indianapolis took him 53rd overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Career line is 157 catches for 2,934 yards and 17 TDs across four seasons. He climbed from STTM #88 tier 8 as a rookie to #42 to #14 tier 2 in 2025.

Strengths

28-rank improvement from 2024 to 2025 plus the 74-rank improvement from 2023; the steady climb is real.
Career 18.7 YPC on 157 receptions is among the top-three vertical-receiver efficiency profiles in the league.

Concerns

Daniel Jones's #8 tier 2 QB finish is one year against four prior tier-8 seasons; the QB sustainability is the entire case.
Recent game log shows two sub-4 PPR weeks; the boom-bust pattern lives with deep-threat profiles.

What to watch: Whether Daniel Jones's 2026 line confirms 2025 was real; Pierce's tier-2 ceiling rides entirely on QB-level passing volume.