Atlanta Falcons playoff chances, Week 10

13%chance to make the playoffs3-6, 4th in the NFC South, outside the NFC field today

13%win the NFC South0%No. 1 seed<1%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Falcons (3-6) have a 13% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 13% chance to win the NFC South and a 0% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 4th in the NFC South and would be outside the NFC field if the season ended today.

What do the Falcons need in Week 10?

vs Chiefs, Sunday, 1:00 PM ETThe Falcons win it 38% of the time

Playoffs with a win19%

Playoffs with a loss10%

Beat the Chiefs and the Falcons' playoff chance is 19%. Lose and it is 10%.

Who should Falcons fans root for in Week 10?

Saints over PanthersSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their division chance

14%vs11%

The Falcons’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Falcons playoff odds by final record

9-8 gets the Falcons in 76% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 8 games. At 10-7 it is 98%.

9-876%6% of seasons

8-936%16% of seasons

7-107%25% of seasons

6-110%27% of seasons

5-120%17% of seasons

4-130%6% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Falcons finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Falcons playoff seed odds

The Falcons' most likely seed is No. 4 (10%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

0%No. 1

<1%No. 2

3%No. 3

10%No. 4

0%No. 5

<1%No. 6

<1%No. 7

87%Miss

Falcons remaining schedule

8 games left. At each game’s win chance the Falcons finish about 6-11.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Falcons win
10	vs Chiefs	Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET	38%
12	at Vikings	Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET	31%
13	vs Lions	Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET	39%
14	at Browns	Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET	46%
15	at Commanders	Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET	46%
16	vs Buccaneers	Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET	45%

Show the last 2 games

17	vs Saints	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	58%
18	at Panthers	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	43%

Where would the Falcons pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 10typical first-round pick in the seasons the Falcons miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Falcons miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 10, and between No. 5 and No. 14 in 8 of every 10. It is a top-5 pick in 12% of those seasons.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Falcons as GM

The NFC South race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Panthers	3-5	24%	24%
Saints	3-5	18%	17%
Buccaneers	3-6	47%	46%
Falcons	3-6	13%	13%

NFC South playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Falcons’ games yourself

Falcons playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Falcons' playoff chances right now?

13%. The Falcons are 3-6, 4th in the NFC South, outside the NFC field today. They win the NFC South in 13% of simulated seasons and win the Super Bowl in <1%.

What record do the Falcons need to make the playoffs?

9-8 gets the Falcons in 76% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 8 games. At 10-7 it is 98%.

Can the Falcons still win the NFC South?

It would take help. The Panthers lead the NFC South at 3-5, and the Falcons (3-6) win the division in 13% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET.

Atlanta Falcons playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET.