Tampa Bay Buccaneers playoff chances, Week 10

47%chance to make the playoffs3-6, 3rd in the NFC South, outside the NFC field today

46%win the NFC South0%No. 1 seed1%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Buccaneers (3-6) have a 47% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 46% chance to win the NFC South and a 0% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 3rd in the NFC South and would be outside the NFC field if the season ended today.

What do the Buccaneers need in Week 10?

The Buccaneers are off in Week 10. Their chances move only on other teams' results.

Who should Buccaneers fans root for in Week 10?

Chiefs over FalconsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their division chance

48%vs44%

The Buccaneers’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Buccaneers playoff odds by final record

8-9 gets the Buccaneers in 65% of the time: 5 more wins in the last 8 games. At 9-8 it is 93%.

10-7100%6% of seasons

9-893%18% of seasons

8-965%27% of seasons

7-1021%26% of seasons

6-112%16% of seasons

5-120%6% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Buccaneers finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Buccaneers playoff seed odds

The Buccaneers' most likely seed is No. 4 (33%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

0%No. 1

<1%No. 2

13%No. 3

33%No. 4

0%No. 5

<1%No. 6

<1%No. 7

53%Miss

Buccaneers remaining schedule

8 games left. At each game’s win chance the Buccaneers finish about 8-9.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Buccaneers win
11	at Lions	Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET	38%
12	vs Panthers	Mon, Nov 30, 8:15 PM ET	65%
13	vs Chargers	Sun, Dec 6, 1:00 PM ET	73%
14	at Ravens	Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET	54%
15	vs Saints	Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET	68%
16	at Falcons	Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET	55%

Show the last 2 games

17	vs Rams	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	46%
18	at Saints	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	57%

Where would the Buccaneers pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 10typical first-round pick in the seasons the Buccaneers miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Buccaneers miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 10, and between No. 6 and No. 14 in 8 of every 10. It is a top-5 pick in 9% of those seasons.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Buccaneers as GM

The NFC South race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Panthers	3-5	24%	24%
Saints	3-5	18%	17%
Buccaneers	3-6	47%	46%
Falcons	3-6	13%	13%

NFC South playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Buccaneers’ games yourself

Buccaneers playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Buccaneers' playoff chances right now?

47%. The Buccaneers are 3-6, 3rd in the NFC South, outside the NFC field today. They win the NFC South in 46% of simulated seasons and win the Super Bowl in 1%.

What record do the Buccaneers need to make the playoffs?

8-9 gets the Buccaneers in 65% of the time: 5 more wins in the last 8 games. At 9-8 it is 93%.

Can the Buccaneers still win the NFC South?

Yes. The Panthers lead the NFC South at 3-5, and the Buccaneers (3-6) win the division in 46% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.