Carolina Panthers playoff chances, Week 10

24%chance to make the playoffs3-5, 1st in the NFC South, the NFC's No. 4 seed today

24%win the NFC South<1%No. 1 seed<1%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Panthers (3-5) have a 24% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, a 24% chance to win the NFC South and less than a 1% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 1st in the NFC South and would be the NFC's No. 4 seed if the season ended today.

What do the Panthers need in Week 10?

at Saints, Sunday, 1:00 PM ETThe Panthers win it 48% of the time

Playoffs with a win36%

Playoffs with a loss13%

Beat the Saints and the Panthers' playoff chance is 36%. Lose and it is 13%.

Who should Panthers fans root for in Week 10?

Chiefs over FalconsSunday, 1:00 PM ET · moves their playoff chance

25%vs22%

The Panthers’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Panthers playoff odds by final record

9-8 gets the Panthers in 82% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 9 games. At 10-7 it is 99%.

9-882%11% of seasons

8-942%20% of seasons

7-108%26% of seasons

6-110%22% of seasons

5-120%12% of seasons

4-130%4% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Panthers finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Panthers playoff seed odds

The Panthers' most likely seed is No. 4 (16%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

<1%No. 1

<1%No. 2

8%No. 3

16%No. 4

<1%No. 5

<1%No. 6

<1%No. 7

76%Miss

Panthers remaining schedule

9 games left. At each game’s win chance the Panthers finish about 7-10.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Panthers win
10	at Saints	Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET	48%
11	vs Ravens	Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ET	56%
12	at Buccaneers	Mon, Nov 30, 8:15 PM ET	35%
13	at Vikings	Sun, Dec 6, 4:25 PM ET	32%
14	vs Saints	Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET	59%
15	vs Bengals	Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET	42%

Show the last 3 games

16	at Steelers	Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET	33%
17	vs Seahawks	Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET	34%
18	vs Falcons	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	57%

Where would the Panthers pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 10typical first-round pick in the seasons the Panthers miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Panthers miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 10, and between No. 5 and No. 15 in 8 of every 10. It is a top-5 pick in 11% of those seasons.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Panthers as GM

The NFC South race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Panthers	3-5	24%	24%
Saints	3-5	18%	17%
Buccaneers	3-6	47%	46%
Falcons	3-6	13%	13%

NFC South playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Panthers’ games yourself

Panthers playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Panthers' playoff chances right now?

24%. The Panthers are 3-5, 1st in the NFC South, the NFC's No. 4 seed today. They win the NFC South in 24% of simulated seasons, take the No. 1 seed in <1% and win the Super Bowl in <1%.

What record do the Panthers need to make the playoffs?

9-8 gets the Panthers in 82% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 9 games. At 10-7 it is 99%.

Can the Panthers still win the NFC South?

Yes. The Panthers lead the NFC South at 3-5 and win it in 24% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET.

Carolina Panthers playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET.