NFC South playoff picture, Week 10

46%Buccaneers to win the NFC South3-6, 3rd in the division today

24%Panthers 17%Saints 13%Falcons

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Buccaneers (3-6) win the NFC South in 46% of 3,000 simulated seasons heading into Week 10; the Panthers (3-5) lead it today. No team in the division makes the playoffs more often than not.

NFC South standings and playoff odds

Team	Record	Division	Playoffs	Win division	No. 1 seed
Panthers	3-5	1-1	24%	24%	<1%
Saints	3-5	0-1	18%	17%	0%
Buccaneers	3-6	2-0	47%	46%	0%
Falcons	3-6	1-2	13%	13%	0%

Chances from 3,000 simulated seasons, official NFL tiebreakers applied.

What does each NFC South team need in Week 10?

Panthersat Saints, Sunday, 1:00 PM ET · win it 48%

36%vs13%Playoffs, win vs loss

Saintsvs Panthers, Sunday, 1:00 PM ET · win it 52%

26%vs8%Playoffs, win vs loss

BuccaneersOff this week

Falconsvs Chiefs, Sunday, 1:00 PM ET · win it 38%

19%vs10%Playoffs, win vs loss

Each team’s chance with a win, then with a loss, on the race it is still in: the playoffs, then the division, then the No. 1 seed. 20,000 simulated seasons.

What record gets each NFC South team in?

Panthers9-8 gets them in 82% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 9 games. At 10-7 it is 99%.

Saints9-8 gets them in 83% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 9 games. At 10-7 it is 99%.

Buccaneers8-9 gets them in 65% of the time: 5 more wins in the last 8 games. At 9-8 it is 93%.

Falcons9-8 gets them in 76% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 8 games. At 10-7 it is 98%.

NFC South division games left

Panthers at SaintsWeek 10 · Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET

52%Saints win

Panthers at BuccaneersWeek 12 · Mon, Nov 30, 8:15 PM ET

65%Buccaneers win

Saints at PanthersWeek 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 1:00 PM ET

59%Panthers win

Saints at BuccaneersWeek 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 1:00 PM ET

68%Buccaneers win

Buccaneers at FalconsWeek 16 · Sun, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET

55%Buccaneers win

Saints at FalconsWeek 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET

58%Falcons win

Show 2 more games

Falcons at PanthersWeek 18 · Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET

57%Panthers win

Buccaneers at SaintsWeek 18 · Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET

57%Buccaneers win

Pick the NFC South games yourself

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NFC South playoff picture: quick answers

Who is going to win the NFC South?

The Buccaneers are the favorite: they win the NFC South in 46% of 3,000 simulated seasons. Behind them: the Panthers at 24%, the Saints at 17% and the Falcons at 13%.

Which NFC South teams will make the playoffs?

Chance to make the playoffs, division title or wild card: the Buccaneers (3-6) 47%, the Panthers (3-5) 24%, the Saints (3-5) 18% and the Falcons (3-6) 13%.

How many NFC South teams can make the playoffs?

Up to all four. The NFC South winner gets one of the NFC's top four seeds, and the three wild cards go to the NFC teams with the best records that did not win a division, so one division can send four teams.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET.

NFC South playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET.