Las Vegas Raiders playoff chances, Week 10

7%chance to make the playoffs4-5, 3rd in the AFC West, outside the AFC field today

<1%win the AFC West<1%No. 1 seed<1%win the Super Bowl

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Raiders (4-5) have a 7% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 10, less than a 1% chance to win the AFC West and less than a 1% chance at the No. 1 seed. They are 3rd in the AFC West and would be outside the AFC field if the season ended today.

What do the Raiders need in Week 10?

vs Seahawks, Sunday, 4:05 PM ETThe Raiders win it 38% of the time

Playoffs with a win12%

Playoffs with a loss4%

Beat the Seahawks and the Raiders' playoff chance is 12%. Lose and it is 4%.

Who should Raiders fans root for in Week 10?

Lions over PatriotsSunday, 9:30 AM ET · moves their playoff chance

8%vs6%

Chargers over RavensMonday, 8:15 PM ET · moves their playoff chance

8%vs7%

The Raiders’ chance if that team wins, then if it loses. Biggest swing first; games that move them by less than a point are left out. 20,000 simulated seasons.

Raiders playoff odds by final record

10-7 gets the Raiders in 75% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 8 games. At 11-6 it is 100%.

10-775%4% of seasons

9-820%14% of seasons

8-91%25% of seasons

7-100%29% of seasons

6-110%19% of seasons

5-120%7% of seasons

Playoff chance at each final record, and how often the Raiders finish there: their six most likely records in 20,000 simulated seasons.

Raiders playoff seed odds

The Raiders' most likely seed is No. 7 (5%). Seeds 1 to 4 go to division winners, and No. 1 gets the only bye. Seeds 5 to 7 are the wild cards.

<1%No. 1

0%No. 2

<1%No. 3

<1%No. 4

<1%No. 5

2%No. 6

5%No. 7

93%Miss

Raiders remaining schedule

8 games left. At each game’s win chance the Raiders finish about 7-10.

Wk	Opponent	Kickoff	Raiders win
10	vs Seahawks	Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET	38%
11	at Broncos	Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET	26%
12	at Browns	Sun, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ET	41%
14	vs Chargers	Sun, Dec 13, 4:05 PM ET	58%
15	vs Broncos	Sun, Dec 20, 4:25 PM ET	37%
16	vs Titans	Sun, Dec 27, 4:05 PM ET	61%

Show the last 2 games

17	at Cardinals	Sun, Jan 3, 4:05 PM ET	49%
18	at Chiefs	Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET	23%

Where would the Raiders pick if they miss the playoffs?

No. 11typical first-round pick in the seasons the Raiders miss the playoffs

In the seasons the Raiders miss the playoffs, their 2027 first-round pick typically lands at No. 11, and between No. 6 and No. 16 in 8 of every 10. It is a top-5 pick in 7% of those seasons.

The full 2027 draft order Mock draft simulator Run the Raiders as GM

The AFC West race

Team	Record	Playoffs	Win division
Broncos	7-2	95%	54%
Chiefs	6-2	94%	45%
Raiders	4-5	7%	<1%
Chargers	0-8	0%	0%

AFC West playoff picture Every team in the Playoff Machine

Pick the Raiders’ games yourself

Raiders playoff chances: quick answers

What are the Raiders' playoff chances right now?

7%. The Raiders are 4-5, 3rd in the AFC West, outside the AFC field today. They win the AFC West in <1% of simulated seasons, take the No. 1 seed in <1% and win the Super Bowl in <1%.

What record do the Raiders need to make the playoffs?

10-7 gets the Raiders in 75% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 8 games. At 11-6 it is 100%.

Can the Raiders still win the AFC West?

It would take help. The Broncos lead the AFC West at 7-2, and the Raiders (4-5) win the division in <1% of 3,000 simulated seasons.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.

Las Vegas Raiders playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 7:18 AM ET.