AFC West playoff picture, Week 10

54%Broncos to win the AFC West7-2, 1st in the division today

Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET · results through Thursday of Week 10 · rebuilt after every final

The Broncos (7-2) win the AFC West in 54% of 3,000 simulated seasons heading into Week 10. The Broncos and Chiefs make the playoffs more often than not.

AFC West standings and playoff odds

Team	Record	Division	Playoffs	Win division	No. 1 seed
Broncos	7-2	2-1	95%	54%	14%
Chiefs	6-2	3-1	94%	45%	9%
Raiders	4-5	1-1	7%	<1%	<1%
Chargers	0-8	0-3	0%	0%	0%

Chances from 3,000 simulated seasons, official NFL tiebreakers applied.

What does each AFC West team need in Week 10?

BroncosOff this week

Chiefsat Falcons, Sunday, 1:00 PM ET · win it 62%

50%vs35%Division, win vs loss

Raidersvs Seahawks, Sunday, 4:05 PM ET · win it 38%

12%vs4%Playoffs, win vs loss

Chargersat Ravens, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET · win it 34%

Each team’s chance with a win, then with a loss, on the race it is still in: the playoffs, then the division, then the No. 1 seed. 20,000 simulated seasons.

What record gets each AFC West team in?

Broncos10-7 gets them in 85% of the time: 3 more wins in the last 8 games. At 11-6 it is 100%.

Chiefs9-8 gets them in 66% of the time: 3 more wins in the last 9 games. At 10-7 it is 96%.

Raiders10-7 gets them in 75% of the time: 6 more wins in the last 8 games. At 11-6 it is 100%.

ChargersNo record still in reach gets them in more often than not.

AFC West division games left

Raiders at BroncosWeek 11 · Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ET

74%Broncos win

Chargers at RaidersWeek 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 4:05 PM ET

58%Raiders win

Broncos at RaidersWeek 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 4:25 PM ET

63%Broncos win

Chiefs at ChargersWeek 17 · Sun, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET

70%Chiefs win

Chargers at BroncosWeek 18 · Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET

75%Broncos win

Raiders at ChiefsWeek 18 · Sun, Jan 10, 1:00 PM ET

77%Chiefs win

Pick the AFC West games yourself

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AFC West playoff picture: quick answers

Who is going to win the AFC West?

The Broncos are the favorite: they win the AFC West in 54% of 3,000 simulated seasons. Behind them: the Chiefs at 45%, the Raiders at <1% and the Chargers at 0%.

Which AFC West teams will make the playoffs?

Chance to make the playoffs, division title or wild card: the Broncos (7-2) 95%, the Chiefs (6-2) 94%, the Raiders (4-5) 7% and the Chargers (0-8) 0%.

How many AFC West teams can make the playoffs?

Up to all four. The AFC West winner gets one of the AFC's top four seeds, and the three wild cards go to the AFC teams with the best records that did not win a division, so one division can send four teams.

How are these playoff odds calculated?

Every remaining game is played out 3,000 times (20,000 for this week's what-if numbers). Each game's win chance comes from the betting line first, then the spread, then our power ratings, and every tie is broken with the NFL's official tiebreakers. It is the same engine as the Playoff Machine, so the numbers here match what the Machine shows before you make a pick.

How often is this page updated?

After every NFL game goes final, and each morning when the betting lines move. These numbers last changed Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET.

AFC West playoff odds from 3,000 simulated seasons of the NFL Playoff Machine, results through Thursday of Week 10. Updated Friday, Nov 13 at 1:14 AM ET.