Josh Conerly Jr.
Washington CommandersModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 17 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
STM Take
Rookie tier 8 (#60) at LT is below the median curve for late-first OT picks but on the expected band given the rookie LT difficulty plus Washington's offensive structure. The Oregon pedigree plus the 2024 All-Pac-12 honors gives him real technical foundation that the rookie finish doesn't yet reflect. The 2026 question is whether the year-two jump pushes him into tier 5 or better, which is the standard threshold for top-30 OT picks on Pro Bowl trajectories.
Conerly came out of Oregon as the Washington Commanders' 1st-round pick (29th overall) in 2025 after starting 26 games for the Ducks and earning 2024 First-Team All-Pac-12 honors. The Commanders picked him to protect Jayden Daniels's blind side, slotting him in as the starting LT from week one. His rookie 2025 finish at tier 8 (#60) reflects the standard rookie LT learning curve plus Washington's broader offensive transition.
Strengths
- 29th overall pick with the Oregon LT pedigree plus 2024 First-Team All-Pac-12 honors gives him real technical foundation that should compound in year two.
- Protecting Jayden Daniels's blind side at age 23 puts him on the long-term build path the Commanders need to commit to.
Concerns
- Rookie tier 8 (#60) is below the year-one median for late-first OT picks on the Pro Bowl trajectory.
- Washington's offensive line broader transition (multi-year rebuild context) compresses the developmental signal in year one.
What to watch: Whether Conerly crosses into tier 5 (top 40) in 2026, the standard year-two threshold for late-first OT picks on Pro Bowl trajectories.