Spencer Brown
Buffalo BillsModel Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 14 games
Draft & College
He went about where consensus had him.
STM Take
Five straight years as starting RT for a top contender plus the 2024 tier 3 (#17) breakout makes Brown one of the more interesting development arcs at the position. The 2024 tier 3 (#17) finish proved a top-20 RT ceiling exists, but the 2025 tier 8 (#58) collapse is a 41-spot regression that demands explanation. The 2026 question is whether the 2024 peak or the 2025 floor is the true Brown baseline.
Brown came out of Northern Iowa as the Buffalo Bills' 3rd-round pick (93rd overall) in 2021. He has held the starting RT job for five straight seasons protecting Josh Allen's right edge opposite Dion Dawkins. His STTM career runs tier 8 (#61) rookie season, tier 8 (#73) in 2022, tier 6 (#46) in 2023, tier 3 (#17) breakout in 2024, then tier 8 (#58) collapse in 2025.
Strengths
- 2024 tier 3 (#17) breakout protecting Josh Allen's right edge confirms a top-20 RT ceiling exists, which separates him from pure mid-round outcomes.
- Five straight years as starting RT after going 93rd overall puts him meaningfully above his draft-slot expectation.
Concerns
- Tier 3 (#17) in 2024 to tier 8 (#58) in 2025 is a 41-spot regression in one year that flags either injury, role change, or a structural collapse that needs root-cause analysis.
- Buffalo's cap structure around the Josh Allen contract limits the extension runway if the 2024 peak doesn't reassert.
What to watch: Whether Brown returns to tier 5 or better in 2026 with the Bills' offensive line healthy, or whether the 2025 tier 8 finish triggers a draft replacement at RT.