Sterling Shepard

Tampa Bay Buccaneers·#17

Pos WRHt 5'10"Wt 201 lbExp 9 yrCollege Oklahoma

WR rankings →

Model Score

65.1 MODEL

2016

66.1

2017

71.1

2018

70.5

2019

69.8

2020

69.1

2021

67.2

2022

65.9

2024

63.3

2025

65.1

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

Season Stats · 13 games

3957th

Rec

37176th

Rec Yds

185th

Rec TD

5472nd

Targets

28.576th

Yds/Gm

6.575th

Fantasy PPG

Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats

0.476109th

EPA / target

3.5 yd15th

Avg separation

5.5 yd

Avg cushion

0.172nd

YAC over exp

75.0%

Catch %

STM Take

Multiple tier 8 finishes since 2021 (#68, #146, #98, #82) confirm the post-Achilles career arc: a veteran slot WR whose role depends entirely on injuries hitting the room above him. The 2025 game log is genuinely thin (Wks 13-14 produced 1.5 and 1.5 PPR, Wk 8 was 1.8) with one Wk 11 10.1 PPR week as the only fantasy-relevant moment. At 32 he is a roster-spot piece for veteran leadership, not for production.

Shepard came out of Oklahoma as the New York Giants' 2nd-round pick (40th overall) in 2016 after a senior season that earned him 1st-team All-Big 12 honors. His son-of-an-NFL-receiver pedigree (father Derrick Shepard played 4 NFL seasons) plus a 1,288-yard final Oklahoma season established a high baseline. His Giants career peaked in 2019 (tier 6 #41, 41 catches for 410 yards) and 2018 (719 yards). Multiple Achilles tears across 2020-2023 derailed multiple seasons. Tampa Bay signed him as veteran depth in 2024 and retained him for 2025.

Strengths

2019 tier 6 (#41) finish with the Giants plus a career 4,000+ receiving yards across 9 seasons confirms the per-snap value when health cooperated.
Tampa Bay's WR room (Evans, Godwin, Egbuka) values the veteran route runner who knows when to break off a route. Pass-protection grades are above average for the position.

Concerns

Two torn Achilles (2020 and 2022) plus multiple lesser injuries have compressed his career production. Career receiving yards per season post-2020 trend below 250.
Four straight tier 8 finishes with multiple sub-2 PPR floor weeks. At 32 there is no upward trajectory available.

What to watch: Whether Tampa Bay retains him through 2026 final cuts as veteran depth or moves on for a younger UDFA at the minimum.