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Tetairoa McMillan

WR·Carolina Panthers·#4·6'5"·220 lb·Rookie·Arizona
UNDERPAIDTier 1Round 1, pick 8 in 2025
Updated October 22, 2026
82.6
Model Score
Down from 84.0 last year
Trade value ·a mid 1st

Model Score by season

Down 1.4 from last season.

809082.620252026

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

A big-bodied young receiver already carrying his offense.

The case for

  • 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year on 70 catches for 1,014 yards at 6'4" 212; the size-plus-production profile is rare.
  • Recent game log includes a 33 PPR Week 11 and 19.3 PPR Week 16; the ceiling weeks already exist.

The worry

  • Bryce Young's tier-8 QB rank capped the air-yards volume; McMillan's year-two case rides on the QB tier improving.
  • Recent game log shows a 1.5 PPR Week 17 and a 4.5 PPR Week 15; the floor games come when Young sits.

What to watch: Whether Bryce Young's year-four jump translates into a tier-2 WR finish for McMillan in 2026.

Full take and bio

McMillan's rookie line at STTM #21 tier 3 closed with the 2025 OROY award and a 1,000-yard season at age 22. The career arc starts with a Heisman-tier college resume and a top-10 draft slot. The Bryce Young tier-8 QB ceiling caps the team-level upside, but McMillan himself authored one of the cleanest rookie-WR seasons in recent memory.

McMillan was born in Waimanalo, Hawaii, played at Servite in Anaheim, and was a 2024 consensus All-American at Arizona where he won Polynesian College Football Player of the Year. Carolina took him eighth overall in the 2025 NFL Draft. He produced 70 receptions for 1,014 yards and 7 TDs as a rookie en route to NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.

Comps

The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.

Plays like: Steve Smith, Rob Moore, Rod Smith. Built like: Isaiah Neyor, Ernest Wilford, Michael Pittman. Coming out: Drake London, Michael Floyd, Allen Robinson.

Of his 20 closest coming out: 4 stars, 11 starters, 3 backups, 2 didn't stick.

Tetairoa McMillan Props This Weekvs TB Sun Oct 25

MarketLineOverUnder
Receptions5.5+110 FanDuel-139 DraftKings
Receiving yards70.5-110 DraftKings-114 DraftKings
Anytime TD+145 BetMGM

Best price across 9 books as of Wed Oct 21. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room

Play Tetairoa's numbers on Underdog · partner link

Tetairoa McMillan Injury StatusNot listed

Tetairoa McMillan is not on the injury report as of Oct 22. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

This season · 5 games

Rec3210th
Rec Yds4719th
Rec TD216th
Targets4814th
Yds/Gm94.25th
Fantasy PPG18.29th
EPA / target1.15317th
Avg separation2.7 yd23rd
Avg cushion5.2 yd
YAC over exp-0.339th
Catch %61.3%

18.2 fantasy points a game, 91 PPR on the season. Every game on the Game Log, every season on Career. Advanced numbers are EPA and Next Gen Stats.

Draft & College

Round 1, pick 8 to the Carolina Panthers in 2025, out of Arizona (Big 12). He went about where consensus had him.

Taken#8
Consensus board10th
Our college model#2 WR

In college, 2022-2024, 32 games: 185 rec, 2,901 yds, 20 TD, 15.7 yds/rec. Coming out: 4.5s 40 yd.

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