Game lines · College · 2026

College week 13.

14 games with a line, 0 played. Our number is the one we logged before kickoff, never after, and until kickoff it is free with an email. Leans, never plays: the sealed 2023-2025 read came back inside the luck band.

Week 13 leans: no lean settled yet. Counted where we differed by 2 or more and the row was clean; suspect rows (no Elo, or the big-spread defect) are shown and never counted.

Game	Market	Total	Our number	Lean	Final
TCU @ Texas TechThu, Nov 26 20:00	-16.5	55.5	—	—	Thu, Nov 26 20:00
Florida @ Florida StateFri, Nov 27 15:30	-4.5	52.5	—	—	Fri, Nov 27 15:30
Mississippi State @ Ole MissFri, Nov 27 12:00	-14.5	57.5	—	—	Fri, Nov 27 12:00
Texas @ Texas A&MFri, Nov 27 19:30	-2.5	53.5	—	—	Fri, Nov 27 19:30
Auburn @ AlabamaSat, Nov 28 00:00	-10	52.5	—	—	Sat, Nov 28 00:00
Arizona State @ ArizonaSat, Nov 28 00:00	-4.5	52.5	—	—	Sat, Nov 28 00:00
South Carolina @ ClemsonSat, Nov 28 00:00	-3	53.5	—	—	Sat, Nov 28 00:00
NC State @ North CarolinaSat, Nov 28 00:00	-1.5	55.5	—	—	Sat, Nov 28 00:00
Illinois @ NorthwesternSat, Nov 28 00:00	-3.5	52.5	—	—	Sat, Nov 28 00:00
Michigan @ Ohio StateSat, Nov 28 12:00	-13.5	46.5	—	—	Sat, Nov 28 12:00
Washington @ OregonSat, Nov 28 00:00	-15.5	54.5	—	—	Sat, Nov 28 00:00
USC @ UCLASat, Nov 28 00:00	-10.5	55.5	—	—	Sat, Nov 28 00:00
Tennessee @ VanderbiltSat, Nov 28 00:00	-3	57.5	—	—	Sat, Nov 28 00:00
Virginia @ Virginia TechSat, Nov 28 00:00	-1.5	53.5	—	—	Sat, Nov 28 00:00

Opens College Matchup Preview This week's college board

College trends

Every FBS game log since 2022, joined to the opening line.

Published before kickoff and graded once the games are in.

Player trendstrue of the player and true of this game.

Wayne Knight has 10 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ rushing yards.

10 of 10, 100% in this spot

9 of 16, 56% everywhere else

RB · UCLAUSC at UCLA2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs Marshall (-3.5)	59	yes
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Weber State (-27)	89	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Georgia Southern (-15)	151	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs Louisiana (-18.5)	111	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Old Dominion (-3)	74	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs App State (-21)	94	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Washington State (-15.5)	126	yes
Fri, Dec 5 25	vs Troy (-24.5)	212	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs San Diego State (-13.5)	97	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Purdue (-13.5)	177	yes

Keshaun Singleton has 7 of his last 7 games as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.

7 of 7, 100% in this spot

10 of 16, 62% everywhere else

WR · AuburnAuburn at Alabama2024-2026

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Nov 9 24	vs Navy (+4.5)	58	yes
Thu, Aug 28 25	vs Boise State (+5.5)	93	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	at Florida (+18.5)	75	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	at Miami (+17.5)	54	yes
Fri, Oct 10 25	at North Texas (+2.5)	54	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Florida (+2.5)	99	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Tennessee (+6.2)	61	yes

Hollywood Smothers has 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

5 of 11, 46% everywhere else

RB · TexasTexas at Texas A&M2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Dec 28 24	at East Carolina (-7.5)	139	yes
Thu, Aug 28 25	vs East Carolina (-13.5)	66	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Virginia (-2.8)	140	yes
Thu, Sep 11 25	at Wake Forest (-7.5)	163	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Virginia Tech (-10)	67	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Campbell (-42.5)	123	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs North Carolina (-7)	32	no
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Texas State (-29.5)	70	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Ohio State (-2.2)	74	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs UTSA (-29.8)	54	yes

Bo Jackson has 9 of his last 9 games at home with 50+ rushing yards.

9 of 9, 100% in this spot

7 of 9, 78% everywhere else

RB · Ohio StateMichigan at Ohio State2025-2026

The 9 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Grambling (-53.5)	108	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Ohio (-28.5)	109	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Minnesota (-23.5)	63	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs Penn State (-17.5)	105	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs UCLA (-33)	112	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Rutgers (-28.5)	109	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Ball State (-50.8)	83	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Kent State (-52.2)	73	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Illinois (-25.5)	53	yes

Jadan Baugh has 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

10 of 17, 59% everywhere else

RB · FloridaFlorida at Florida State2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Fri, Dec 20 24	at Tulane (-10)	70	yes
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Long Island University (-46.8)	139	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs South Florida (-18.5)	93	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Mississippi State (-9.5)	140	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	at Kentucky (-4.5)	64	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Florida Atlantic (-26.5)	160	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Campbell (-51.5)	136	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	at Auburn (-2.5)	158	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Ole Miss (-4)	142	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Missouri (-5.5)	13	no

Caleb Komolafe has 8 of his last 10 games in conference play with a rushing touchdown.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

3 of 10, 30% everywhere else

RB · NorthwesternIllinois at Northwestern2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Oregon (+25.5)	1	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs UCLA (-6)	1	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	at Penn State (+20.5)	1	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Purdue (-3.5)	0	no
Sat, Oct 25 25	at Nebraska (+7)	2	yes
Fri, Nov 7 25	at USC (+14.5)	1	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	at Michigan (+10)	1	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at Minnesota (-4)	1	yes
Fri, Sep 25 26	at Indiana (+20.2)	0	no
Fri, Oct 2 26	vs Penn State (+2.8)	1	yes

Bryant Wesco Jr. has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

4 of 11, 36% everywhere else

WR · ClemsonSouth Carolina at Clemson2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Nov 2 24	vs Louisville (-11)	53	yes
Sat, Nov 23 24	vs The Citadel (-49)	75	yes
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs South Carolina (-2.5)	80	yes
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs LSU (-5.5)	66	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Troy (-30.2)	118	yes
Sat, Sep 20 25	vs Syracuse (-17.5)	83	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs SMU (-3.5)	0	no
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Georgia Southern (-20)	35	no
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs North Carolina (-3)	77	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Miami (+14.8)	152	yes

Trinidad Chambliss has 8 of his last 9 games in conference play with 250+ passing yards.

8 of 9, 89% in this spot

6 of 9, 67% everywhere else

QB · Ole MissMississippi State at Ole Miss2025-2026

The 9 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Arkansas (-3.5)	372	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs LSU (-2.5)	314	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at Georgia (+7.5)	263	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	at Oklahoma (+5.5)	309	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs South Carolina (-13)	159	no
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs Florida (-10.5)	285	yes
Fri, Nov 28 25	at Mississippi State (-7.5)	363	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs LSU (+2.8)	349	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Florida (+4)	298	yes

CJ Bailey has 8 of his last 10 games in conference play with 2+ passing touchdowns.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

5 of 11, 46% everywhere else

QB · NC StateNC State at North Carolina2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Thu, Sep 11 25	at Wake Forest (-7.5)	3	yes
Sat, Sep 20 25	at Duke (+3)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Virginia Tech (-10)	2	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	at Pittsburgh (+5)	3	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs Georgia Tech (+4.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	at Miami (+16.5)	1	no
Fri, Nov 21 25	vs Florida State (+6.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs North Carolina (-7)	2	yes
Sat, Aug 29 26	at Virginia (+4)	0	no
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Louisville (+4.2)	2	yes

Katin Houser has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with 250+ passing yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

8 of 15, 53% everywhere else

QB · IllinoisIllinois at Northwestern2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 19 24	at Army (+17.5)	297	yes
Thu, Nov 14 24	at Tulsa (-16.5)	317	yes
Sat, Nov 23 24	at North Texas (+2.5)	296	yes
Thu, Aug 28 25	at NC State (+13.5)	394	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	at Coastal Carolina (-7)	297	yes
Thu, Oct 9 25	at Tulane (+7)	170	no
Sat, Nov 1 25	at Temple (-5.5)	256	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at UTSA (-2)	228	no
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Florida Atlantic (-7)	258	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Ohio State (+25.5)	263	yes

Noah Fifita has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

11 of 20, 55% everywhere else

QB · ArizonaArizona State at Arizona2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Oklahoma State (-21.5)	5	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at Houston (-2)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	at Colorado (-3.5)	4	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Kansas (-5.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Baylor (-6.5)	1	no
Fri, Nov 28 25	at Arizona State (-2)	1	no
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Northern Arizona (-32.5)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Northern Illinois (-34.5)	4	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Washington State (-11.8)	5	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Cincinnati (-6.8)	2	yes

Jeremiah Smith has 8 of his last 10 games in conference play with 6+ catches.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

9 of 15, 60% everywhere else

WR · Ohio StateMichigan at Ohio State2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 27 25	at Washington (-9.5)	8	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Minnesota (-23.5)	7	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	at Illinois (-15)	6	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at Wisconsin (-24.5)	9	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs Penn State (-17.5)	6	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	at Purdue (-29.5)	10	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs UCLA (-33)	4	no
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Michigan (-9.5)	3	no
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Illinois (-25.5)	12	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Iowa (-14.2)	11	yes

Team trendsagainst the spread and the total, last three seasons plus this one, in the spot this game put them in. The faded bar is the same team everywhere else; every card also beats the league in that spot.

Virginia Tech has gone over 20 of 27 as a favorite

20 of 27, 74% in this spot

5 of 14, 36% everywhere else

Virginia TechVirginia at Virginia Tech, Sat, Nov 282023-2026

The 27 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Fri, Oct 2 26	vs Pittsburgh	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Boston College	no
Sat, Sep 19 26	at Maryland	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Old Dominion	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs VMI	yes
Fri, Oct 24 25	vs California	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Wake Forest	yes
Sat, Sep 20 25	vs Wofford	no
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Old Dominion	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Vanderbilt	yes
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs Virginia	yes
Sat, Nov 23 24	at Duke	yes
Sat, Nov 2 24	at Syracuse	yes
Sat, Oct 26 24	vs Georgia Tech	no
Thu, Oct 17 24	vs Boston College	yes
Sat, Oct 5 24	at Stanford	no
Sat, Sep 21 24	vs Rutgers	yes
Sat, Sep 14 24	at Old Dominion	yes
Sat, Sep 7 24	vs Marshall	no
Sat, Aug 31 24	at Vanderbilt	yes
Sat, Nov 25 23	at Virginia	yes
Sat, Nov 18 23	vs NC State	yes
Sat, Nov 11 23	at Boston College	yes
Thu, Oct 26 23	vs Syracuse	yes
Sat, Oct 14 23	vs Wake Forest	no
Sat, Sep 9 23	vs Purdue	no
Sat, Sep 2 23	vs Old Dominion	yes

Mississippi State has gone over 17 of 24 coming off a loss

17 of 24, 71% in this spot

6 of 16, 38% everywhere else

Mississippi StateMississippi State at Ole Miss, Fri, Nov 272023-2026

The 24 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs UL Monroe	yes
Fri, Nov 28 25	vs Ole Miss	no
Sat, Nov 15 25	at Missouri	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	at Arkansas	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	vs Texas	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at Florida	no
Sat, Oct 4 25	at Texas A&M	no
Sat, Aug 30 25	at Southern Miss	no
Fri, Nov 29 24	at Ole Miss	no
Sat, Nov 23 24	vs Missouri	yes
Sat, Nov 2 24	vs Massachusetts	yes
Sat, Oct 26 24	vs Arkansas	yes
Sat, Oct 19 24	vs Texas A&M	yes
Sat, Oct 12 24	at Georgia	yes
Sat, Sep 28 24	at Texas	no
Sat, Sep 21 24	vs Florida	yes
Sat, Sep 14 24	vs Toledo	yes
Sat, Aug 31 24	vs Eastern Kentucky	yes
Sat, Nov 18 23	vs Southern Miss	yes
Sat, Nov 11 23	at Texas A&M	yes
Sat, Nov 4 23	vs Kentucky	no
Sat, Oct 7 23	vs Western Michigan	yes
Sat, Sep 30 23	vs Alabama	yes
Sat, Sep 23 23	at South Carolina	yes

Arizona State has covered 13 of 17 coming off a loss

13 of 17, 76% in this spot

10 of 22, 46% everywhere else

Arizona StateArizona State at Arizona, Sat, Nov 282023-2026

The 17 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Sat, Sep 19 26	at Kansas	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Morgan State	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	at Iowa State	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Texas Tech	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Texas State	yes
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Northern Arizona	no
Sat, Nov 2 24	at Oklahoma State	yes
Sat, Oct 5 24	vs Kansas	yes
Sat, Aug 31 24	vs Wyoming	yes
Sat, Nov 25 23	vs Arizona	no
Sat, Nov 11 23	at UCLA	yes
Sat, Oct 28 23	vs Washington State	yes
Sat, Oct 21 23	at Washington	yes
Sat, Sep 30 23	at California	yes
Sat, Sep 23 23	vs USC	yes
Sat, Sep 16 23	vs Fresno State	no
Thu, Aug 31 23	vs Southern Utah	no

Northwestern has covered 11 of 14 at home

11 of 14, 79% in this spot

11 of 24, 46% everywhere else

NorthwesternIllinois at Northwestern, Sat, Nov 282023-2026

The 14 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Fri, Oct 2 26	vs Penn State	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Colorado	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs South Dakota State	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Purdue	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs UL Monroe	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs UCLA	no
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Oregon	yes
Fri, Sep 5 25	vs Western Illinois	yes
Sat, Nov 18 23	vs Purdue	yes
Sat, Oct 28 23	vs Maryland	yes
Sat, Oct 7 23	vs Howard	no
Sat, Sep 30 23	vs Penn State	no
Sat, Sep 23 23	vs Minnesota	yes
Sat, Sep 9 23	vs UTEP	yes

Vanderbilt has gone over 16 of 22 at home

16 of 22, 73% in this spot

9 of 18, 50% everywhere else

VanderbiltTennessee at Vanderbilt, Sat, Nov 282023-2026

The 22 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs NC State	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Delaware	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Austin Peay	no
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Kentucky	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Auburn	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	vs Missouri	no
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs LSU	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Utah State	yes
Sat, Sep 20 25	vs Georgia State	yes
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Charleston Southern	no
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs Tennessee	yes
Sat, Nov 9 24	vs South Carolina	no
Sat, Oct 19 24	vs Ball State	no
Sat, Oct 5 24	vs Alabama	yes
Sat, Sep 7 24	vs Alcorn State	yes
Sat, Aug 31 24	vs Virginia Tech	yes
Sat, Nov 4 23	vs Auburn	no
Sat, Oct 14 23	vs Georgia	yes
Sat, Sep 30 23	vs Missouri	yes
Sat, Sep 23 23	vs Kentucky	yes
Sat, Sep 2 23	vs Alabama A&M	yes
Sat, Aug 26 23	vs Hawai'i	yes

Alabama has covered 18 of 24 at home

18 of 24, 75% in this spot

9 of 17, 53% everywhere else

AlabamaAuburn at Alabama, Sat, Nov 282023-2026

The 24 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs South Carolina	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Florida State	no
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs East Carolina	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Eastern Illinois	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs Oklahoma	no
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs LSU	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Tennessee	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Vanderbilt	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Wisconsin	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs UL Monroe	yes
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs Auburn	yes
Sat, Nov 16 24	vs Mercer	yes
Sat, Oct 26 24	vs Missouri	yes
Sat, Oct 12 24	vs South Carolina	no
Sat, Sep 28 24	vs Georgia	yes
Sat, Sep 7 24	vs South Florida	no
Sat, Aug 31 24	vs Western Kentucky	yes
Sat, Nov 18 23	vs Chattanooga	yes
Sat, Nov 4 23	vs LSU	yes
Sat, Oct 21 23	vs Tennessee	yes
Sat, Oct 14 23	vs Arkansas	no
Sat, Sep 23 23	vs Ole Miss	yes
Sat, Sep 9 23	vs Texas	no
Sat, Sep 2 23	vs Middle Tennessee	yes

Alabama has covered 10 of 13 in conference play when our model likes them

10 of 13, 77% in this spot

17 of 28, 61% everywhere else

AlabamaAuburn at Alabama, Sat, Nov 282023-2026

The 13 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs Oklahoma	no
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs LSU	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	at South Carolina	no
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs Auburn	yes
Sat, Nov 9 24	at LSU	yes
Sat, Oct 5 24	at Vanderbilt	no
Sat, Sep 28 24	vs Georgia	yes
Sat, Dec 2 23	vs Georgia	yes
Sat, Nov 11 23	at Kentucky	yes
Sat, Nov 4 23	vs LSU	yes
Sat, Oct 7 23	at Texas A&M	yes
Sat, Sep 30 23	at Mississippi State	yes
Sat, Sep 23 23	vs Ole Miss	yes