Game lines · College · 2026

College week 4.

71 games with a line, 71 played. Our number is the one we logged before kickoff, never after. Leans, never plays: the sealed 2023-2025 read came back inside the luck band.

Week 4 leans: 13-21, -10.1u flat at -110. Counted where we differed by 2 or more and the row was clean; suspect rows (no Elo, or the big-spread defect) are shown and never counted.

Game	Market	Total	Our number	Lean	Final
Liberty @ Coastal CarolinaThu, Sep 24 19:30	-2.5	50.5	—	—	34-17
Clemson @ CaliforniaFri, Sep 25 22:30	-2.5	52.2	—	—	24-10
Northwestern @ IndianaFri, Sep 25 20:00	-20.2	49.8	—	—	23-29
Howard @ RutgersFri, Sep 25 19:00	-42.2	57.5	—	—	7-58
Army @ TempleFri, Sep 25 16:00	-4	48.5	—	—	21-17
Navy @ UABFri, Sep 25 19:00	-6.5	50.2	—	—	20-24
UNLV @ AkronSat, Sep 26 12:00	-13.5	52.8	Akron +17.3	WIN UNLV -13.5	38-10
South Carolina @ AlabamaSat, Sep 26 19:00	-12.5	53.5	Alabama -11.1	LOSS South Carolina +12.5not counted	18-49
Tulsa @ ArkansasSat, Sep 26 20:00	-7	51.5	Arkansas -11.2	WIN Arkansas -7	6-34
Kennesaw State @ Arkansas StateSat, Sep 26 19:00	-6.5	53.2	Arkansas State -5.4	WIN Kennesaw State +6.5not counted	14-17
Vanderbilt @ AuburnSat, Sep 26 16:15	-10	54.5	Auburn +2.2	WIN Vanderbilt +10not counted	15-21
Colorado @ BaylorSat, Sep 26 12:00	-8.5	54.2	Baylor -10.3	WIN Baylor -8.5not counted	13-23
Virginia Tech @ Boston CollegeSat, Sep 26 12:00	-14.5	45.5	Boston College +3.1	WIN Boston College +14.5not counted	21-14
South Florida @ Bowling GreenSat, Sep 26 17:00	-17.8	48.8	Bowling Green +19.6	LOSS South Florida -17.8	14-6
Robert Morris @ BuffaloSat, Sep 26 15:30	-27.8	46.2	—	—	28-31
Louisiana @ CharlotteSat, Sep 26 18:30	-9.2	49.5	Charlotte +7.3	LOSS Charlotte +9.2	34-7
Kansas State @ CincinnatiSat, Sep 26 19:00	-6	55.2	Cincinnati +1.1	WIN Cincinnati +6	26-31
William & Mary @ DukeSat, Sep 26 15:30	-43	61.5	—	—	7-62
North Carolina Central @ East CarolinaSat, Sep 26 16:00	-37.5	58.5	—	—	9-42
Lindenwood @ Eastern MichiganSat, Sep 26 13:00	-24.2	53.8	—	—	3-29
Ole Miss @ FloridaSat, Sep 26 15:30	-4	58.5	Florida +3	LOSS Ole Miss +4	28-52
Long Island University @ Florida InternationalSat, Sep 26 18:00	-37.5	54.2	—	—	3-20
Central Arkansas @ Florida StateSat, Sep 26 15:00	-46	62.5	—	—	7-34
Rice @ Fresno StateSat, Sep 26 22:00	-12.2	43.5	Fresno State -23.4	WIN Fresno State -12.2not counted	24-38
Oklahoma @ GeorgiaSat, Sep 26 15:30	-11.2	43.8	Georgia -11.6	LOSS Oklahoma +11.2not counted	13-41
Houston @ Georgia SouthernSat, Sep 26 16:00	-17.2	56.5	Georgia Southern +6.9	WIN Georgia Southern +17.2not counted	42-28
Northern Illinois @ Georgia StateSat, Sep 26 14:00	-8.8	56.5	Georgia State -5.6	LOSS Northern Illinois +8.8	14-35
Utah @ Iowa StateSat, Sep 26 15:30	-7.5	46.8	Iowa State +11.6	WIN Utah -7.5	31-17
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville StateSat, Sep 26 19:00	-7	51.0	Jacksonville State -8.6	WIN Jacksonville State -7not counted	13-23
Ball State @ Kent StateSat, Sep 26 12:00	-2.5	51.5	Kent State +3.4	LOSS Ball State +2.5	13-26
South Alabama @ KentuckySat, Sep 26 12:45	-20.5	54.2	Kentucky -10.5	LOSS South Alabama +20.5not counted	21-45
Texas A&M @ LSUSat, Sep 26 19:30	-8.5	52.2	LSU -2.2	LOSS Texas A&M +8.5	6-35
Wake Forest @ LouisvilleSat, Sep 26 12:00	-11.2	57.5	Louisville -12.4	WIN Wake Forest +11.2not counted	30-27
Gardner-Webb @ MarshallSat, Sep 26 15:30	-25	56.2	—	—	35-36
UCLA @ MarylandSat, Sep 26 13:30	-2.5	55.8	Maryland -1.5	LOSS Maryland +2.5	54-3
Central Michigan @ MiamiSat, Sep 26 18:30	-41.2	52.2	Miami -30.2	LOSS Central Michigan +41.2not counted	3-52
UConn @ Miami (OH)Sat, Sep 26 15:30	-2.5	52.2	Miami (OH) +5.5	LOSS UConn +2.5	21-24
Iowa @ MichiganSat, Sep 26 15:30	-4.8	39.8	Michigan +0.2	WIN Iowa +4.8	20-19
Nebraska @ Michigan StateSat, Sep 26 17:00	-6	48.5	Michigan State +4	LOSS Michigan State +6not counted	31-13
Missouri @ Mississippi StateSat, Sep 26 19:45	-3.5	58.5	Mississippi State -1.8	LOSS Missouri +3.5	24-31
App State @ NC StateSat, Sep 26 19:30	-12.8	56.5	NC State -9.9	WIN App State +12.8	31-41
Air Force @ NevadaSat, Sep 26 22:30	-5.2	50.5	Nevada -1.9	WIN Nevada +5.2	36-33
New Mexico @ New Mexico StateSat, Sep 26 15:30	-11.5	47.5	New Mexico State +7.7	LOSS New Mexico State +11.5	42-18
Houston Christian @ North TexasSat, Sep 26 19:30	-38.2	60.5	—	—	14-63
Stonehill @ OhioSat, Sep 26 15:30	-32.5	53.5	—	—	7-35
Illinois @ Ohio StateSat, Sep 26 12:00	-25.5	53.5	Ohio State -20	WIN Illinois +25.5	19-42
James Madison @ Old DominionSat, Sep 26 18:00	-7	44.2	Old Dominion +16.6	WIN James Madison -7not counted	46-20
Wisconsin @ Penn StateSat, Sep 26 17:00	-9.8	43.8	Penn State -15	LOSS Penn State -9.8	24-20
Bucknell @ PittsburghSat, Sep 26 12:00	-54.5	63.8	—	—	0-59
Notre Dame @ PurdueSat, Sep 26 14:00	-27.5	57.2	Purdue +30.4	WIN Notre Dame -27.5	49-10
Missouri State @ SMUSat, Sep 26 21:00	-30.5	60.5	SMU -32.1	WIN Missouri State +30.5	24-34
Massachusetts @ Sacramento StateSat, Sep 26 21:00	-6	49.5	Sacramento State -8.4	LOSS Sacramento State +6not counted	35-6
Georgia Tech @ StanfordSat, Sep 26 22:30	-3	48.8	Stanford +7	LOSS Georgia Tech -3	27-34
Texas @ TennesseeSat, Sep 26 12:00	-5.5	54.5	Tennessee +1.3	WIN Tennessee +5.5	20-17
Incarnate Word @ Texas StateSat, Sep 26 18:00	-30.5	66.5	—	—	10-63
Sam Houston @ Texas TechSat, Sep 26 12:00	-34.5	55.8	Texas Tech -34.6	LOSS Sam Houston +34.5not counted	14-49
San Diego State @ ToledoSat, Sep 26 12:00	-2.8	50.5	Toledo -11.6	WIN Toledo -2.8	16-41
Southern Miss @ TulaneSat, Sep 26 19:00	-17.8	52.5	Tulane -21.1	LOSS Tulane -17.8	21-24
TCU @ UCFSat, Sep 26 15:30	-3.5	48.2	UCF +2.6	WIN UCF +3.5not counted	13-21
Florida Atlantic @ UL MonroeSat, Sep 26 20:00	-11.5	58.2	UL Monroe +6.2	LOSS UL Monroe +11.5	45-17
Oregon @ USCSat, Sep 26 19:30	-3.5	60.5	USC -3.2	LOSS USC +3.5	41-27
Oregon State @ UTEPSat, Sep 26 21:00	-11.5	56.5	UTEP +4.5	LOSS UTEP +11.5	33-7
Colorado State @ UTSASat, Sep 26 12:00	-14.2	56.5	UTSA -12.9	WIN Colorado State +14.2not counted	45-59
Troy @ Utah StateSat, Sep 26 19:30	-3	47.5	Utah State +1.8	LOSS Troy +3	10-21
Delaware @ VirginiaSat, Sep 26 18:00	-19.8	52.5	Virginia -11.6	LOSS Delaware +19.8	3-42
Minnesota @ WashingtonSat, Sep 26 23:00	-12.2	44.8	Washington -11.9	LOSS Washington -12.2not counted	27-24
Arizona @ Washington StateSat, Sep 26 19:30	-11.8	47.5	Washington State +1.3	WIN Washington State +11.8	34-24
Oklahoma State @ West VirginiaSat, Sep 26 19:00	-1.5	60.5	West Virginia -9.1	LOSS West Virginia -1.5	41-24
Mercyhurst @ Western KentuckySat, Sep 26 19:00	-40	58.8	—	—	7-52
Boise State @ Western MichiganSat, Sep 26 15:30	-8.5	50.5	Western Michigan +0.2	LOSS Western Michigan +8.5	32-7
Hawai'i @ WyomingSat, Sep 26 15:00	-2.2	44.5	Wyoming +3.7	LOSS Hawai'i -2.2	10-27

Opens College Matchup Preview This week's college board

College trends

Every FBS game log since 2022, joined to the opening line.

How they graded. 25 of 28 hit (89%) against a claimed 88%, 1 did not play. These were computed after the week, from games before it, so they are a replay and not a receipt. The trends we publish before kickoff are the ones that count.

Player trends25 of 28 hittrue of the player and true of this game.

Jadan Baugh has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 75+ rushing yards.hit (142)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

3 of 14, 21% everywhere else

RB · FloridaOle Miss at Florida2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Nov 23 24	vs Ole Miss (+13)	46	no
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Long Island University (-46.8)	139	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs South Florida (-18.5)	93	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Texas (+4.5)	107	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Mississippi State (-9.5)	140	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Tennessee (+3.5)	96	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs Florida State (+1.5)	257	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Florida Atlantic (-26.5)	160	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Campbell (-51.5)	136	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Ole Miss (-4)	142	yes

Trinidad Chambliss has 9 of his last 9 games against a ranked team with 250+ passing yards.hit (298)

9 of 9, 100% in this spot

5 of 9, 56% everywhere else

QB · Ole MissOle Miss at Florida2025-2026

The 9 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs LSU (-2.5)	314	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at Georgia (+7.5)	263	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	at Oklahoma (+5.5)	309	yes
Sat, Dec 20 25	vs Tulane (-16.5)	282	yes
Thu, Jan 1 25	at Georgia (+6)	385	yes
Thu, Jan 8 25	at Miami (+3)	253	yes
Sun, Sep 6 26	at Louisville (-6.5)	336	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs LSU (+2.8)	349	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Florida (+4)	298	yes

Cameron Dickey has 9 of his last 10 games at home with a rushing touchdown.hit (2)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

4 of 11, 36% everywhere else

RB · Texas TechSam Houston at Texas Tech2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff (-54.5)	1	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Kent State (-48)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Oregon State (-24)	1	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs Kansas (-13.5)	2	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	vs Oklahoma State (-37.5)	1	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs BYU (-13.5)	1	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs UCF (-24.5)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Abilene Christian (-45)	0	no
Fri, Sep 18 26	vs Houston (-8)	1	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Sam Houston (-34.5)	2	yes

Jayden Maiava has 6 of his last 6 games against a ranked team with 2+ passing touchdowns.hit (2)

6 of 6, 100% in this spot

11 of 18, 61% everywhere else

QB · USCOregon at USC2024-2026

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs Notre Dame (+7)	4	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	at Illinois (-6.5)	2	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs Michigan (-3)	2	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at Notre Dame (+10.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at Oregon (+11)	3	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Oregon (+3.5)	2	yes

Kevin Jennings has 9 of his last 10 games at home as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.hit (4)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

9 of 24, 38% everywhere else

QB · SMUMissouri State at SMU2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Nov 16 24	vs Boston College (-19)	3	yes
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs California (-12.5)	2	yes
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs East Texas A&M (-50.8)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Baylor (-2.8)	3	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Syracuse (-17.5)	4	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs Stanford (-19.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Louisville (-4)	3	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs UC Davis (-32.5)	5	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Missouri State (-30.5)	4	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Boston College (-21.5)	1	no

Raleek Brown has 6 of his last 6 games on the road with 50+ rushing yards.hit (68)

6 of 6, 100% in this spot

7 of 11, 64% everywhere else

RB · TexasTexas at Tennessee2025-2026

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 6 25	at Mississippi State (-5.8)	110	yes
Sat, Sep 20 25	at Baylor (+3)	80	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	at Utah (+9.5)	57	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	at Iowa State (+7.5)	64	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at Colorado (-7)	232	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Tennessee (-5.5)	68	yes

Hollywood Smothers has 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.did not play

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

5 of 11, 46% everywhere else

RB · TexasTexas at Tennessee2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Dec 28 24	at East Carolina (-7.5)	139	yes
Thu, Aug 28 25	vs East Carolina (-13.5)	66	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Virginia (-2.8)	140	yes
Thu, Sep 11 25	at Wake Forest (-7.5)	163	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Virginia Tech (-10)	67	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Campbell (-42.5)	123	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs North Carolina (-7)	32	no
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Texas State (-29.5)	70	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Ohio State (-2.2)	74	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs UTSA (-29.8)	54	yes

Jai'Den Thomas has 9 of his last 10 games on the road as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.hit (113)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

14 of 32, 44% everywhere else

RB · UNLVUNLV at Akron2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 19 24	at Oregon State (-6.5)	58	yes
Sat, Nov 9 24	at Hawai'i (-12.5)	109	yes
Fri, Nov 22 24	at San José State (-7.5)	135	yes
Sat, Sep 20 25	at Miami (OH) (-1.5)	77	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	at Wyoming (-4.5)	96	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	at Colorado State (-5.5)	131	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Nevada (-7.5)	103	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	at Hawai'i (-2.8)	143	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	at North Texas (-2.8)	34	no
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Akron (-13.5)	113	yes

Cam Cook has 9 of his last 10 games in conference play with 100+ rushing yards.hit (193)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

4 of 8, 50% everywhere else

RB · West VirginiaOklahoma State at West Virginia2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Liberty (+6.2)	195	yes
Thu, Oct 9 25	at Sam Houston (-7)	218	yes
Wed, Oct 15 25	vs Delaware (+3)	112	yes
Wed, Oct 29 25	at Middle Tennessee (-4.5)	54	no
Sat, Nov 8 25	at UTEP (-1.5)	127	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs Kennesaw State (+3.5)	132	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at Florida International (+2.5)	137	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs Western Kentucky (+1.5)	137	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Oklahoma State (-1.5)	193	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Iowa State (+3)	142	yes

Wayne Knight has 9 of his last 10 games in conference play with 50+ rushing yards.hit (100)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

8 of 16, 50% everywhere else

RB · UCLAUCLA at Maryland2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Georgia Southern (-15)	151	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	at Georgia State (-19.5)	53	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs Louisiana (-18.5)	111	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Old Dominion (-3)	74	yes
Tue, Oct 28 25	at Texas State (-7.5)	48	no
Sat, Nov 8 25	at Marshall (-13.5)	87	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs App State (-21)	94	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Coastal Carolina (-24)	71	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Purdue (-13.5)	177	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Maryland (-2.5)	100	yes

Bo Jackson has 9 of his last 9 games at home with 50+ rushing yards.hit (53)

9 of 9, 100% in this spot

7 of 9, 78% everywhere else

RB · Ohio StateIllinois at Ohio State2025-2026

The 9 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Grambling (-53.5)	108	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Ohio (-28.5)	109	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Minnesota (-23.5)	63	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs Penn State (-17.5)	105	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs UCLA (-33)	112	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Rutgers (-28.5)	109	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Ball State (-50.8)	83	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Kent State (-52.2)	73	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Illinois (-25.5)	53	yes

Chris Marshall has 7 of his last 8 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.hit (195)

7 of 8, 88% in this spot

4 of 10, 40% everywhere else

WR · ArkansasTulsa at Arkansas2025-2026

The 8 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Fri, Sep 5 25	vs Eastern Washington (-33.2)	132	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs App State (-16.5)	52	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs New Mexico (-14.5)	80	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs UNLV (-13)	96	yes
Fri, Dec 5 25	vs UNLV (-6)	10	no
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs North Alabama (-40.5)	79	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Georgia (+24.5)	104	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Tulsa (-7)	195	yes

17 more college trends

Devon Dampier has 7 of his last 7 games on the road with 2+ passing touchdowns.hit (2)

7 of 7, 100% in this spot

7 of 9, 78% everywhere else

QB · UtahUtah at Iowa State2025-2026

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Aug 30 25	at UCLA (-6.5)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	at Wyoming (-24.5)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	at West Virginia (-13.5)	4	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at BYU (-4)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	at Baylor (-9.5)	2	yes
Fri, Nov 28 25	at Kansas (-10)	3	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Iowa State (-7.5)	2	yes

Darian Mensah has 7 of his last 8 games at home with 250+ passing yards.hit (338)

7 of 8, 88% in this spot

5 of 11, 46% everywhere else

QB · MiamiCentral Michigan at Miami2025-2026

The 8 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Thu, Aug 28 25	vs Elon (-36.5)	378	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Illinois (+2.5)	327	yes
Sat, Sep 20 25	vs NC State (-3)	257	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Georgia Tech (-3.5)	342	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs Virginia (-5.5)	213	no
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs Wake Forest (-2.5)	268	yes
Thu, Sep 10 26	vs Florida A&M (-59.5)	252	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Central Michigan (-41.2)	338	yes

Caleb Komolafe has 8 of his last 10 games in conference play with a rushing touchdown.missed (0)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

3 of 10, 30% everywhere else

RB · NorthwesternNorthwestern at Indiana2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Oregon (+25.5)	1	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs UCLA (-6)	1	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	at Penn State (+20.5)	1	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Purdue (-3.5)	0	no
Sat, Oct 25 25	at Nebraska (+7)	2	yes
Fri, Nov 7 25	at USC (+14.5)	1	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	at Michigan (+10)	1	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at Minnesota (-4)	1	yes
Fri, Sep 25 26	at Indiana (+20.2)	0	no
Fri, Oct 2 26	vs Penn State (+2.8)	1	yes

Turbo Richard has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.hit (68)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

4 of 12, 33% everywhere else

RB · IndianaNorthwestern at Indiana2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 28 24	vs Western Kentucky (-7.5)	5	no
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Fordham (-34.8)	48	no
Sat, Sep 13 25	at Stanford (-14)	55	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs California (-6)	170	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Syracuse (-3)	102	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs North Texas (-40)	58	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Howard (-57.5)	108	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Western Kentucky (-44.8)	149	yes
Fri, Sep 25 26	vs Northwestern (-20.2)	68	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Rutgers (-24.2)	204	yes

KJ Duff has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.hit (131)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

7 of 11, 64% everywhere else

WR · RutgersHoward at Rutgers2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Miami (OH) (-15.5)	71	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Norfolk State (-44.5)	119	yes
Fri, Sep 19 25	vs Iowa (+2.5)	92	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Oregon (+17.5)	41	no
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Maryland (-1.5)	69	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs Penn State (+14)	127	yes
Thu, Sep 3 26	vs Massachusetts (-29.2)	196	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs USC (+21)	86	yes
Fri, Sep 25 26	vs Howard (-42.2)	131	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Indiana (+24.2)	78	yes

Joe Jackson has 8 of his last 10 games in conference play with 50+ rushing yards.hit (59)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

3 of 8, 38% everywhere else

RB · Kansas StateKansas State at Cincinnati2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Aug 23 25	at Iowa State (-3)	51	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs UCF (-6)	6	no
Sat, Oct 4 25	at Baylor (+4.5)	61	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs TCU (+3)	110	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	at Kansas (+3.5)	69	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs Texas Tech (+7.5)	25	no
Sat, Nov 15 25	at Oklahoma State (-19.5)	69	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at Utah (+17.5)	293	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs Colorado (-16.5)	142	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Cincinnati (-6)	59	yes

CJ Carr has 6 of his last 7 games on the road with 2+ passing touchdowns.hit (3)

6 of 7, 86% in this spot

5 of 10, 50% everywhere else

QB · Notre DameNotre Dame at Purdue2025-2026

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Aug 31 25	at Miami (-2.5)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	at Arkansas (-5.5)	4	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	at Boston College (-31)	0	no
Sat, Nov 15 25	at Pittsburgh (-12.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Stanford (-32.5)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Purdue (-27.5)	3	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at North Carolina (-21)	4	yes

Owen McCown has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 2+ passing touchdowns.hit (3)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

7 of 17, 41% everywhere else

QB · UTSAColorado State at UTSA2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Mon, Dec 23 24	vs Coastal Carolina (-12.5)	1	no
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Texas State (-4.5)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Incarnate Word (-21)	4	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs Rice (-9.5)	3	yes
Thu, Oct 30 25	vs Tulane (+6)	4	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs East Carolina (+2)	5	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs Army (-8.5)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs UT Rio Grande Valley (-28.5)	3	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Colorado State (-14.2)	3	yes
Thu, Oct 8 26	vs South Florida (-5.5)	0	no

Isaac Brown has 9 of his last 10 games in conference play with 50+ rushing yards.missed (33)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

8 of 11, 73% everywhere else

RB · LouisvilleWake Forest at Louisville2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Virginia (-6.5)	131	yes
Fri, Oct 17 25	at Miami (+10.5)	98	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	vs Boston College (-25.5)	288	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	at Virginia Tech (-10.5)	209	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs California (-18.5)	136	yes
Fri, Nov 14 25	vs Clemson (-1.5)	135	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs SMU (-3)	67	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Wake Forest (-11.2)	33	no
Sat, Oct 3 26	at NC State (-4.2)	125	yes
Fri, Oct 9 26	vs Florida State (-4.2)	235	yes

Easton Messer has 7 of his last 8 games on the road with 6+ catches.missed (4)

7 of 8, 88% in this spot

6 of 9, 67% everywhere else

WR · Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe2025-2026

The 8 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Aug 30 25	at Maryland (+13.5)	13	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	at Florida International (+2)	6	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	at Rice (+4.5)	10	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at South Florida (+20.5)	7	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	at Navy (+14.5)	8	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	at Tulane (+16.5)	9	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	at Florida (+26.5)	7	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at UL Monroe (-11.5)	4	no

Anthony Evans III has 6 of his last 7 games as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.hit (114)

6 of 7, 86% in this spot

6 of 10, 60% everywhere else

WR · Mississippi StateMissouri at Mississippi State2025-2026

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Aug 30 25	at Southern Miss (-14.5)	26	no
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Alcorn State (-42.8)	66	yes
Sat, Sep 20 25	vs Northern Illinois (-24)	80	yes
Fri, Jan 2 25	at Wake Forest (-3)	80	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs UL Monroe (-28.5)	118	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	at Minnesota (-0.2)	121	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Missouri (-3.5)	114	yes

Cayden Lee has 6 of his last 7 games in conference play against a ranked team with 50+ receiving yards.hit (156)

6 of 7, 86% in this spot

16 of 29, 55% everywhere else

WR · MissouriMissouri at Mississippi State2024-2026

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 12 24	at LSU (-4)	147	yes
Sat, Nov 9 24	vs Georgia (+2)	81	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs LSU (-2.5)	70	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at Georgia (+7.5)	7	no
Sat, Oct 25 25	at Oklahoma (+5.5)	60	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Mississippi State (+3.5)	156	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Florida (+5.5)	110	yes

Katin Houser has 8 of his last 10 games on the road with 250+ passing yards.hit (263)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

8 of 15, 53% everywhere else

QB · IllinoisIllinois at Ohio State2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 19 24	at Army (+17.5)	297	yes
Thu, Nov 14 24	at Tulsa (-16.5)	317	yes
Sat, Nov 23 24	at North Texas (+2.5)	296	yes
Thu, Aug 28 25	at NC State (+13.5)	394	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	at Coastal Carolina (-7)	297	yes
Thu, Oct 9 25	at Tulane (+7)	170	no
Sat, Nov 1 25	at Temple (-5.5)	256	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at UTSA (-2)	228	no
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Florida Atlantic (-7)	258	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Ohio State (+25.5)	263	yes

Caden Veltkamp has 5 of his last 6 games as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.hit (2)

5 of 6, 83% in this spot

6 of 11, 55% everywhere else

QB · Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe2025-2026

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Florida A&M (-21.2)	5	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs UAB (-4.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Tulsa (-4.5)	3	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Florida International (-5.2)	0	no
Sat, Sep 26 26	at UL Monroe (-11.5)	2	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Texas Southern (-45.8)	4	yes

Noah Fifita has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.hit (5)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

11 of 20, 55% everywhere else

QB · ArizonaArizona at Washington State2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Oklahoma State (-21.5)	5	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at Houston (-2)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	at Colorado (-3.5)	4	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Kansas (-5.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Baylor (-6.5)	1	no
Fri, Nov 28 25	at Arizona State (-2)	1	no
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Northern Arizona (-32.5)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Northern Illinois (-34.5)	4	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Washington State (-11.8)	5	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Cincinnati (-6.8)	2	yes

Jeremiah Smith has 8 of his last 10 games in conference play with 6+ catches.hit (12)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

9 of 15, 60% everywhere else

WR · Ohio StateIllinois at Ohio State2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 27 25	at Washington (-9.5)	8	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Minnesota (-23.5)	7	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	at Illinois (-15)	6	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at Wisconsin (-24.5)	9	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs Penn State (-17.5)	6	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	at Purdue (-29.5)	10	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs UCLA (-33)	4	no
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Michigan (-9.5)	3	no
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Illinois (-25.5)	12	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Iowa (-14.2)	11	yes

Tre Richardson has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.hit (85)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

5 of 8, 62% everywhere else

WR · LouisvilleWake Forest at Louisville2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Charleston Southern (-38)	74	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Utah State (-23.5)	74	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs LSU (-1.5)	0	no
Sat, Oct 25 25	vs Missouri (-3)	62	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Auburn (-6)	124	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Kentucky (-7)	159	yes
Fri, Sep 11 26	vs Villanova (-39)	98	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs SMU (-3)	62	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Wake Forest (-11.2)	85	yes
Fri, Oct 9 26	vs Florida State (-4.2)	0	no

Team trends23 of 39 hitagainst the spread and the total, last three seasons plus this one, in the spot this game put them in. The faded bar is the same team everywhere else; every card also beats the league in that spot.

Ball State has covered 9 of 10 as an underdog when our model likes themmissed

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

13 of 28, 46% everywhere else

Ball StateBall State at Kent State, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Indiana has gone over 8 of 9 in prime timehit

8 of 9, 89% in this spot

19 of 32, 59% everywhere else

IndianaNorthwestern at Indiana, Fri, Sep 252023-2026

Washington State has covered 7 of 8 at home when our model likes themhit

7 of 8, 88% in this spot

15 of 31, 48% everywhere else

Washington StateArizona at Washington State, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Rutgers has gone over 7 of 8 as a favorite of 14 or morehit

7 of 8, 88% in this spot

17 of 32, 53% everywhere else

RutgersHoward at Rutgers, Fri, Sep 252023-2026

Tulane has covered 13 of 15 when our model likes themmissed

13 of 15, 87% in this spot

8 of 26, 31% everywhere else

TulaneSouthern Miss at Tulane, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Tulane has covered 12 of 14 as a favorite when our model likes themmissed

12 of 14, 86% in this spot

9 of 27, 33% everywhere else

TulaneSouthern Miss at Tulane, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Texas A&M has gone over 11 of 13 on the roadmissed

11 of 13, 85% in this spot

12 of 25, 48% everywhere else

Texas A&MTexas A&M at LSU, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Ball State has covered 10 of 12 when our model likes themmissed

10 of 12, 83% in this spot

12 of 26, 46% everywhere else

Ball StateBall State at Kent State, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Jacksonville State has covered 9 of 11 at home when our model likes themhit

9 of 11, 82% in this spot

15 of 31, 48% everywhere else

Jacksonville StateMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Miami has covered 9 of 11 with more rest than the opponenthit

9 of 11, 82% in this spot

13 of 28, 46% everywhere else

MiamiCentral Michigan at Miami, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Oregon has covered 8 of 10 against a ranked teamhit

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

16 of 28, 57% everywhere else

OregonOregon at USC, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Miami (OH) has covered 19 of 24 as a favoritehit

19 of 24, 79% in this spot

7 of 18, 39% everywhere else

Miami (OH)UConn at Miami (OH), Sat, Sep 262023-2026

28 more team trends

Rutgers has gone over 19 of 24 at homehit

19 of 24, 79% in this spot

5 of 16, 31% everywhere else

RutgersHoward at Rutgers, Fri, Sep 252023-2026

Utah State has covered 14 of 18 at homehit

14 of 18, 78% in this spot

8 of 19, 42% everywhere else

Utah StateTroy at Utah State, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Penn State has covered 7 of 9 as a favorite when our model likes themmissed

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

14 of 31, 45% everywhere else

Penn StateWisconsin at Penn State, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

UConn has covered 7 of 9 as an underdog when our model likes themmissed

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

15 of 28, 54% everywhere else

UConnUConn at Miami (OH), Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Kentucky has covered 7 of 9 as a favorite of 14 or morehit

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

13 of 30, 43% everywhere else

KentuckySouth Alabama at Kentucky, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Boston College has covered 7 of 9 as an underdog of 14 or morehit

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

12 of 30, 40% everywhere else

Boston CollegeVirginia Tech at Boston College, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Indiana has covered 7 of 9 in prime timemissed

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

17 of 32, 53% everywhere else

IndianaNorthwestern at Indiana, Fri, Sep 252023-2026

Northwestern has gone over 7 of 9 against a ranked teamhit

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

14 of 29, 48% everywhere else

NorthwesternNorthwestern at Indiana, Fri, Sep 252023-2026

Oklahoma has covered 10 of 13 coming off a lossmissed

10 of 13, 77% in this spot

11 of 24, 46% everywhere else

OklahomaOklahoma at Georgia, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Alabama has covered 10 of 13 in prime timehit

10 of 13, 77% in this spot

15 of 26, 58% everywhere else

AlabamaSouth Carolina at Alabama, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Army has covered 10 of 13 on the roadpush

10 of 13, 77% in this spot

9 of 24, 38% everywhere else

ArmyArmy at Temple, Fri, Sep 252023-2026

Jacksonville State has covered 16 of 21 at homehit

16 of 21, 76% in this spot

8 of 21, 38% everywhere else

Jacksonville StateMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Virginia Tech has gone over 19 of 25 as a favoritemissed

19 of 25, 76% in this spot

5 of 14, 36% everywhere else

Virginia TechVirginia Tech at Boston College, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Florida Atlantic has gone over 9 of 12 in prime timehit

9 of 12, 75% in this spot

13 of 27, 48% everywhere else

Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Arkansas has gone over 12 of 16 as a favoritemissed

12 of 16, 75% in this spot

11 of 23, 48% everywhere else

ArkansasTulsa at Arkansas, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Mississippi State has covered 9 of 12 as a favoritehit

9 of 12, 75% in this spot

13 of 27, 48% everywhere else

Mississippi StateMissouri at Mississippi State, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Troy has covered 15 of 20 on the roadmissed

15 of 20, 75% in this spot

9 of 20, 45% everywhere else

TroyTroy at Utah State, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Washington State has covered 6 of 8 in prime time when our model likes themhit

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

16 of 31, 52% everywhere else

Washington StateArizona at Washington State, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Bowling Green has gone over 6 of 8 as an underdog of 14 or moremissed

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

12 of 30, 40% everywhere else

Bowling GreenSouth Florida at Bowling Green, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Bowling Green has covered 6 of 8 as an underdog of 14 or morehit

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

13 of 31, 42% everywhere else

Bowling GreenSouth Florida at Bowling Green, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Toledo has gone over 15 of 20 at homehit

15 of 20, 75% in this spot

8 of 20, 40% everywhere else

ToledoSan Diego State at Toledo, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

UNLV has covered 6 of 8 on the road when our model likes themhit

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

19 of 34, 56% everywhere else

UNLVUNLV at Akron, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Alabama has covered 17 of 23 at homehit

17 of 23, 74% in this spot

8 of 16, 50% everywhere else

AlabamaSouth Carolina at Alabama, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Maryland has gone over 17 of 23 at homehit

17 of 23, 74% in this spot

6 of 16, 38% everywhere else

MarylandUCLA at Maryland, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Ohio State has covered 17 of 23 at homemissed

17 of 23, 74% in this spot

8 of 15, 53% everywhere else

Ohio StateIllinois at Ohio State, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

UTSA has gone over 14 of 19 at homehit

14 of 19, 74% in this spot

7 of 17, 41% everywhere else

UTSAColorado State at UTSA, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Oklahoma has covered 8 of 11 against a ranked teammissed

8 of 11, 73% in this spot

13 of 27, 48% everywhere else

OklahomaOklahoma at Georgia, Sat, Sep 262023-2026

Missouri has covered 10 of 14 on the roadmissed

10 of 14, 71% in this spot

13 of 24, 54% everywhere else

MissouriMissouri at Mississippi State, Sat, Sep 262023-2026