Game lines · College · 2026

College week 5.

59 games with a line, 59 played. Our number is the one we logged before kickoff, never after. Leans, never plays: the sealed 2023-2025 read came back inside the luck band.

Week 5 leans: 19-13, +4.7u flat at -110. Counted where we differed by 2 or more and the row was clean; suspect rows (no Elo, or the big-spread defect) are shown and never counted.

Game	Market	Total	Our number	Lean	Final
Western Kentucky @ New Mexico StateThu, Oct 1 20:00	-1.5	55.8	New Mexico State -0.2	LOSS Western Kentucky +1.5	13-34
North Texas @ TulsaThu, Oct 1 21:00	-2	56.8	Tulsa +14.8	LOSS North Texas -2not counted	45-44
Liberty @ DelawareFri, Oct 2 19:00	-7	51.5	Delaware +13.3	WIN Liberty -7	30-14
Penn State @ NorthwesternFri, Oct 2 20:00	-2.8	46.8	Northwestern +8.1	LOSS Penn State -2.8	13-34
Pittsburgh @ Virginia TechFri, Oct 2 19:00	-1.5	53.2	Virginia Tech +1.1	WIN Pittsburgh +1.5	35-33
Navy @ Air ForceSat, Oct 3 12:00	-2.8	45.2	Air Force -0.8	LOSS Navy +2.8not counted	9-14
Cincinnati @ ArizonaSat, Oct 3 23:00	-6.8	56.0	Arizona -6.2	LOSS Cincinnati +6.8not counted	7-34
Baylor @ Arizona StateSat, Oct 3 22:30	-3.5	49.0	Arizona State -3.5	—	55-19
Toledo @ Ball StateSat, Oct 3 14:00	-20.8	52.2	Ball State +19.2	WIN Ball State +20.8not counted	39-24
Utah State @ Boise StateSat, Oct 3 19:30	-19.5	51.0	Boise State -15.8	WIN Utah State +19.5	18-37
Western Michigan @ BuffaloSat, Oct 3 13:00	-13.2	46.2	Buffalo +2.5	WIN Buffalo +13.2not counted	20-17
Akron @ Central MichiganSat, Oct 3 15:30	-6.8	47.2	Central Michigan -16.8	WIN Central Michigan -6.8not counted	17-41
Memphis @ CharlotteSat, Oct 3 11:00	-19.5	52.2	Charlotte +16.7	LOSS Charlotte +19.5	59-8
Miami @ ClemsonSat, Oct 3 19:30	-14.8	48.5	Clemson +17.3	WIN Miami -14.8not counted	41-13
Georgia Southern @ Coastal CarolinaSat, Oct 3 19:00	-2.2	53.5	Coastal Carolina +0.9	LOSS Coastal Carolina +2.2not counted	31-24
Texas Tech @ ColoradoSat, Oct 3 19:30	-13.5	50.0	Colorado +20.4	WIN Texas Tech -13.5	29-7
Oregon State @ Colorado StateSat, Oct 3 18:00	-7	61.5	Colorado State -0.8	LOSS Colorado State +7	56-26
Texas Southern @ Florida AtlanticSat, Oct 3 18:00	-45.8	62.0	—	—	10-66
Virginia @ Florida StateSat, Oct 3 15:30	-1.2	51.5	Florida State +2.5	LOSS Virginia -1.2not counted	7-38
Vanderbilt @ GeorgiaSat, Oct 3 12:45	-25.5	50.2	Georgia -16.3	WIN Vanderbilt +25.5	14-38
Old Dominion @ Georgia StateSat, Oct 3 15:30	-2	51.5	Georgia State -4.7	WIN Georgia State -2	10-42
San José State @ Hawai'iSat, Oct 3 23:59	-2.8	51.2	Hawai'i -0.6	WIN San José State +2.8	20-16
UCF @ HoustonSat, Oct 3 12:00	-10.5	50.8	Houston -6.7	WIN UCF +10.5	17-27
Purdue @ IllinoisSat, Oct 3 16:15	-9.8	62.5	Illinois -15.2	LOSS Illinois -9.8	24-17
Ohio State @ IowaSat, Oct 3 15:30	-14.2	46.0	Iowa +5.4	LOSS Iowa +14.2	31-14
West Virginia @ Iowa StateSat, Oct 3 12:00	-3	53.2	Iowa State -14.7	PUSH Iowa State -3not counted	42-45
Marshall @ James MadisonSat, Oct 3 15:45	-16.2	55.8	James Madison -18.3	LOSS Marshall +16.2not counted	17-45
Middle Tennessee @ KansasSat, Oct 3 12:00	-21	51.0	Kansas -12.4	LOSS Middle Tennessee +21	0-55
Ohio @ Kent StateSat, Oct 3 15:30	-3.5	50.8	Kent State +9	LOSS Ohio -3.5	13-10
McNeese @ LSUSat, Oct 3 19:45	-53.2	62.0	—	—	14-63
Arkansas State @ LouisianaSat, Oct 3 20:00	-5.2	49.0	Louisiana -7.5	LOSS Louisiana -5.2not counted	20-23
Army @ Louisiana TechSat, Oct 3 19:30	-0.2	46.8	Louisiana Tech +3.1	LOSS Army +0.2not counted	29-31
Eastern Michigan @ MassachusettsSat, Oct 3 15:30	-5.8	49.2	Massachusetts -1.2	WIN Eastern Michigan +5.8	38-14
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)Sat, Oct 3 15:30	-11.2	42.2	Miami (OH) -8.2	WIN Bowling Green +11.2	24-20
Michigan @ MinnesotaSat, Oct 3 12:00	-6.2	42.2	Minnesota +5	WIN Minnesota +6.2not counted	14-20
Alabama @ Mississippi StateSat, Oct 3 12:00	-5.5	62.0	Mississippi State +6.6	WIN Alabama -5.5not counted	56-23
Florida @ MissouriSat, Oct 3 15:30	-5.5	57.8	Missouri +1.6	WIN Missouri +5.5	17-45
Louisville @ NC StateSat, Oct 3 15:30	-4.2	57.0	NC State +2.8	WIN NC State +4.2not counted	28-31
Maryland @ NebraskaSat, Oct 3 16:00	-15	52.5	Nebraska -21.2	WIN Nebraska -15	23-48
UTEP @ New MexicoSat, Oct 3 16:00	-23.2	47.8	New Mexico -22	LOSS UTEP +23.2not counted	7-61
Notre Dame @ North CarolinaSat, Oct 3 12:00	-21	46.5	North Carolina +25.4	LOSS Notre Dame -21	37-26
Wyoming @ North Dakota StateSat, Oct 3 15:30	-17.2	44.5	North Dakota State -11.2	LOSS Wyoming +17.2	0-28
UTSA @ RiceSat, Oct 3 19:00	-12	56.2	Rice +10.3	WIN Rice +12	16-14
Indiana @ RutgersSat, Oct 3 20:00	-24.2	56.8	Rutgers +27.3	WIN Indiana -24.2not counted	47-15
Boston College @ SMUSat, Oct 3 12:00	-21.5	55.2	SMU -16.6	WIN Boston College +21.5	16-25
Texas State @ San Diego StateSat, Oct 3 22:30	-9.8	57.5	San Diego State +2.9	WIN San Diego State +9.8	29-31
UL Monroe @ South AlabamaSat, Oct 3 19:00	-13.2	57.0	South Alabama -16.8	WIN South Alabama -13.2	35-52
Kentucky @ South CarolinaSat, Oct 3 16:15	-2.5	53.0	South Carolina -2.2	—	35-34
Temple @ South FloridaSat, Oct 3 19:30	-5.5	49.5	South Florida -16.9	LOSS South Florida -5.5not counted	17-13
BYU @ TCUSat, Oct 3 19:00	-5.8	48.2	TCU +3.6	LOSS TCU +5.8	17-10
Auburn @ TennesseeSat, Oct 3 15:30	-6.2	54.2	Tennessee -8.1	WIN Tennessee -6.2not counted	14-24
Arkansas @ Texas A&MSat, Oct 3 19:00	-13.8	50.8	Texas A&M -9.9	LOSS Arkansas +13.8	7-34
Samford @ UABSat, Oct 3 15:30	-30.5	54.2	—	—	14-33
Syracuse @ UConnSat, Oct 3 12:00	-6.5	51.0	UConn -11.5	WIN UConn +6.5not counted	42-41
California @ UNLVSat, Oct 3 15:30	-1.8	52.2	UNLV -10.8	WIN UNLV -1.8	31-39
Washington @ USCSat, Oct 3 19:30	-8.2	58.2	USC -6.8	WIN Washington +8.2	21-25
Stanford @ Wake ForestSat, Oct 3 12:00	-14.5	54.2	Wake Forest -9.8	LOSS Stanford +14.5	3-57
Fresno State @ Washington StateSat, Oct 3 21:30	-2.2	45.0	Washington State +2.4	WIN Fresno State +2.2	26-6
Michigan State @ WisconsinSat, Oct 3 12:30	-8.8	43.2	Wisconsin -9.5	WIN Wisconsin -8.8not counted	3-31

Opens College Matchup Preview This week's college board

College trends

Every FBS game log since 2022, joined to the opening line.

How they graded. 18 of 26 hit (69%) against a claimed 85%. These were computed after the week, from games before it, so they are a replay and not a receipt. The trends we publish before kickoff are the ones that count.

Player trends18 of 26 hittrue of the player and true of this game.

Keshaun Singleton has 7 of his last 7 games as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.hit (61)

7 of 7, 100% in this spot

10 of 16, 62% everywhere else

WR · AuburnAuburn at Tennessee2024-2026

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Nov 9 24	vs Navy (+4.5)	58	yes
Thu, Aug 28 25	vs Boise State (+5.5)	93	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	at Florida (+18.5)	75	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	at Miami (+17.5)	54	yes
Fri, Oct 10 25	at North Texas (+2.5)	54	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Florida (+2.5)	99	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Tennessee (+6.2)	61	yes

Kevin Jennings has 9 of his last 10 games at home as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.missed (1)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

9 of 24, 38% everywhere else

QB · SMUBoston College at SMU2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Nov 16 24	vs Boston College (-19)	3	yes
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs California (-12.5)	2	yes
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs East Texas A&M (-50.8)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Baylor (-2.8)	3	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Syracuse (-17.5)	4	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs Stanford (-19.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Louisville (-4)	3	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs UC Davis (-32.5)	5	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Missouri State (-30.5)	4	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Boston College (-21.5)	1	no

Cam Cook has 6 of his last 6 games as an underdog in conference play with 100+ rushing yards.hit (142)

6 of 6, 100% in this spot

7 of 12, 58% everywhere else

RB · West VirginiaWest Virginia at Iowa State2025-2026

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Liberty (+6.2)	195	yes
Wed, Oct 15 25	vs Delaware (+3)	112	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs Kennesaw State (+3.5)	132	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at Florida International (+2.5)	137	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs Western Kentucky (+1.5)	137	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Iowa State (+3)	142	yes

Katin Houser has 9 of his last 10 games at home as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.hit (2)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

6 of 13, 46% everywhere else

QB · IllinoisPurdue at Illinois2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Fri, Nov 29 24	vs Navy (-2.8)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Campbell (-30.2)	2	yes
Thu, Sep 25 25	vs Army (-3.5)	2	yes
Thu, Oct 16 25	vs Tulsa (-16.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Charlotte (-28)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs Memphis (-3)	1	no
Thu, Sep 3 26	vs UAB (-26)	3	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Duke (-6.2)	3	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Southern Illinois (-34.8)	2	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Purdue (-9.8)	2	yes

LJ Martin has 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.missed (16)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

8 of 15, 53% everywhere else

RB · BYUBYU at TCU2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 27 25	at Colorado (-6.5)	53	yes
Fri, Oct 3 25	vs West Virginia (-19.5)	90	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	at Arizona (-2.5)	154	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs TCU (-3)	79	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at Cincinnati (-2.5)	222	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs UCF (-17.5)	95	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Utah Tech (-50)	54	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Arizona (-6.8)	98	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	at Colorado State (-17.5)	176	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at TCU (-5.8)	16	no

Jadan Baugh has 9 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.missed (13)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

10 of 17, 59% everywhere else

RB · FloridaFlorida at Missouri2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Fri, Dec 20 24	at Tulane (-10)	70	yes
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Long Island University (-46.8)	139	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs South Florida (-18.5)	93	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Mississippi State (-9.5)	140	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	at Kentucky (-4.5)	64	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Florida Atlantic (-26.5)	160	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Campbell (-51.5)	136	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	at Auburn (-2.5)	158	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Ole Miss (-4)	142	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Missouri (-5.5)	13	no

CJ Bailey has 8 of his last 9 games at home in conference play with 2+ passing touchdowns.hit (2)

8 of 9, 89% in this spot

10 of 20, 50% everywhere else

QB · NC StateLouisville at NC State2024-2026

The 9 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 5 24	vs Wake Forest (-4)	2	yes
Sat, Oct 12 24	vs Syracuse (+1)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 2 24	vs Stanford (-9.5)	3	yes
Sat, Nov 9 24	vs Duke (-3)	1	no
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Virginia Tech (-10)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs Georgia Tech (+4.5)	2	yes
Fri, Nov 21 25	vs Florida State (+6.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs North Carolina (-7)	2	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Louisville (+4.2)	2	yes

Turbo Richard has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.hit (204)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

4 of 12, 33% everywhere else

RB · IndianaIndiana at Rutgers2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 28 24	vs Western Kentucky (-7.5)	5	no
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Fordham (-34.8)	48	no
Sat, Sep 13 25	at Stanford (-14)	55	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs California (-6)	170	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Syracuse (-3)	102	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs North Texas (-40)	58	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Howard (-57.5)	108	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Western Kentucky (-44.8)	149	yes
Fri, Sep 25 26	vs Northwestern (-20.2)	68	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Rutgers (-24.2)	204	yes

Kamari Moulton has 8 of his last 10 games in conference play with 75+ rushing yards.missed (27)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

3 of 9, 33% everywhere else

RB · IowaOhio State at Iowa2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 11 25	at Wisconsin (-5)	96	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Penn State (-3)	99	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	vs Minnesota (-7.5)	75	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Oregon (+4.5)	87	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	at USC (+6.5)	90	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Michigan State (-17.5)	78	yes
Fri, Nov 28 25	at Nebraska (-5.5)	93	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Michigan (+4.8)	44	no
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Ohio State (+14.2)	27	no
Fri, Oct 9 26	at Washington (+3)	208	yes

KJ Duff has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.hit (78)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

7 of 11, 64% everywhere else

WR · RutgersIndiana at Rutgers2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Miami (OH) (-15.5)	71	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Norfolk State (-44.5)	119	yes
Fri, Sep 19 25	vs Iowa (+2.5)	92	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Oregon (+17.5)	41	no
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Maryland (-1.5)	69	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs Penn State (+14)	127	yes
Thu, Sep 3 26	vs Massachusetts (-29.2)	196	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs USC (+21)	86	yes
Fri, Sep 25 26	vs Howard (-42.2)	131	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Indiana (+24.2)	78	yes

Nick Marsh has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with a receiving touchdown.hit (1)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

5 of 14, 36% everywhere else

WR · IndianaIndiana at Rutgers2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Fri, Aug 29 25	vs Western Michigan (-21.5)	1	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Boston College (-3.5)	3	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Youngstown State (-23.5)	0	no
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs UCLA (-7)	1	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Maryland (-4)	1	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs North Texas (-40)	1	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Howard (-57.5)	1	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Western Kentucky (-44.8)	0	no
Fri, Sep 25 26	vs Northwestern (-20.2)	1	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Rutgers (-24.2)	1	yes

Bryant Wesco Jr. has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.hit (152)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

4 of 11, 36% everywhere else

WR · ClemsonMiami at Clemson2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Nov 2 24	vs Louisville (-11)	53	yes
Sat, Nov 23 24	vs The Citadel (-49)	75	yes
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs South Carolina (-2.5)	80	yes
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs LSU (-5.5)	66	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Troy (-30.2)	118	yes
Sat, Sep 20 25	vs Syracuse (-17.5)	83	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs SMU (-3.5)	0	no
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Georgia Southern (-20)	35	no
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs North Carolina (-3)	77	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Miami (+14.8)	152	yes

14 more college trends

Malachi Toney has 6 of his last 7 games on the road as a favorite with 6+ catches.missed (5)

6 of 7, 86% in this spot

6 of 14, 43% everywhere else

WR · MiamiMiami at Clemson2025-2026

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 4 25	at Florida State (-3.5)	7	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	at SMU (-8.5)	9	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at Virginia Tech (-17.5)	12	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Pittsburgh (-6.5)	13	yes
Fri, Sep 4 26	at Stanford (-24.5)	12	yes
Fri, Sep 18 26	at Wake Forest (-20.2)	12	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Clemson (-14.8)	5	no

Reed Harris has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.hit (125)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

5 of 13, 38% everywhere else

WR · Arizona StateBaylor at Arizona State2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Nov 23 24	vs North Carolina (+2)	76	yes
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs Pittsburgh (-3.5)	85	yes
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Fordham (-34.8)	23	no
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs California (-6)	54	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs UConn (+2.5)	52	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs Notre Dame (+31)	28	no
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs SMU (+10.5)	86	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs Georgia Tech (+16.5)	142	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Morgan State (-44.2)	137	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Baylor (-3.5)	125	yes

CJ Carr has 6 of his last 7 games on the road with 2+ passing touchdowns.hit (4)

6 of 7, 86% in this spot

5 of 10, 50% everywhere else

QB · Notre DameNotre Dame at North Carolina2025-2026

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sun, Aug 31 25	at Miami (-2.5)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	at Arkansas (-5.5)	4	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	at Boston College (-31)	0	no
Sat, Nov 15 25	at Pittsburgh (-12.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Stanford (-32.5)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Purdue (-27.5)	3	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at North Carolina (-21)	4	yes

Isaac Brown has 9 of his last 10 games in conference play with 50+ rushing yards.hit (125)

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

8 of 11, 73% everywhere else

RB · LouisvilleLouisville at NC State2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Virginia (-6.5)	131	yes
Fri, Oct 17 25	at Miami (+10.5)	98	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	vs Boston College (-25.5)	288	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	at Virginia Tech (-10.5)	209	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs California (-18.5)	136	yes
Fri, Nov 14 25	vs Clemson (-1.5)	135	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs SMU (-3)	67	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Wake Forest (-11.2)	33	no
Sat, Oct 3 26	at NC State (-4.2)	125	yes
Fri, Oct 9 26	vs Florida State (-4.2)	235	yes

Josh Hoover has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.hit (4)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

4 of 9, 44% everywhere else

QB · IndianaIndiana at Rutgers2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Baylor (-3.5)	3	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	at West Virginia (-16.5)	1	no
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Iowa State (-7.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at Houston (-1.5)	3	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs Cincinnati (-3)	3	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs North Texas (-40)	4	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Howard (-57.5)	4	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Western Kentucky (-44.8)	2	yes
Fri, Sep 25 26	vs Northwestern (-20.2)	1	no
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Rutgers (-24.2)	4	yes

Dylan Riley has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ rushing yards.hit (93)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

5 of 10, 50% everywhere else

RB · Boise StateUtah State at Boise State2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Fri, Sep 5 25	vs Eastern Washington (-33.2)	123	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs App State (-16.5)	46	no
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs New Mexico (-14.5)	102	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs UNLV (-13)	201	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs Fresno State (-17.5)	16	no
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Colorado State (-17.5)	72	yes
Fri, Dec 5 25	vs UNLV (-6)	75	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Memphis (-9.2)	206	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs South Dakota (-28.2)	202	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Utah State (-19.5)	93	yes

Chris Marshall has 5 of his last 6 games as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.hit (76)

5 of 6, 83% in this spot

6 of 12, 50% everywhere else

WR · ArkansasArkansas at Texas A&M2024-2026

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 7 24	at Oregon (+18)	0	no
Sat, Oct 4 25	at Notre Dame (+21.5)	68	yes
Sat, Dec 13 25	at Washington (+10)	97	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	at Utah (+13)	63	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Georgia (+24.5)	104	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Texas A&M (+13.8)	76	yes

Cayden Lee has 6 of his last 7 games in conference play against a ranked team with 50+ receiving yards.hit (110)

6 of 7, 86% in this spot

16 of 29, 55% everywhere else

WR · MissouriFlorida at Missouri2024-2026

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 12 24	at LSU (-4)	147	yes
Sat, Nov 9 24	vs Georgia (+2)	81	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs LSU (-2.5)	70	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at Georgia (+7.5)	7	no
Sat, Oct 25 25	at Oklahoma (+5.5)	60	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Mississippi State (+3.5)	156	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Florida (+5.5)	110	yes

Antwan Raymond has 8 of his last 10 games as an underdog with 50+ rushing yards.missed (31)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

6 of 11, 55% everywhere else

RB · RutgersIndiana at Rutgers2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 27 25	at Minnesota (+3.5)	171	yes
Fri, Oct 10 25	at Washington (+9.5)	89	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Oregon (+17.5)	55	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	at Purdue (+2.5)	105	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	at Illinois (+13)	29	no
Sat, Nov 22 25	at Ohio State (+28.5)	52	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs Penn State (+14)	189	yes
Fri, Sep 11 26	at Boston College (+3)	134	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs USC (+21)	122	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Indiana (+24.2)	31	no

Caden Veltkamp has 5 of his last 6 games as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.hit (4)

5 of 6, 83% in this spot

6 of 11, 55% everywhere else

QB · Florida AtlanticTexas Southern at Florida Atlantic2025-2026

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Florida A&M (-21.2)	5	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs UAB (-4.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Tulsa (-4.5)	3	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Florida International (-5.2)	0	no
Sat, Sep 26 26	at UL Monroe (-11.5)	2	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Texas Southern (-45.8)	4	yes

Noah Fifita has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 2+ passing touchdowns.hit (2)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

11 of 20, 55% everywhere else

QB · ArizonaCincinnati at Arizona2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Oklahoma State (-21.5)	5	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at Houston (-2)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	at Colorado (-3.5)	4	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Kansas (-5.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Baylor (-6.5)	1	no
Fri, Nov 28 25	at Arizona State (-2)	1	no
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Northern Arizona (-32.5)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Northern Illinois (-34.5)	4	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	at Washington State (-11.8)	5	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Cincinnati (-6.8)	2	yes

Jayden Maiava has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 2+ passing touchdowns.missed (1)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

5 of 9, 56% everywhere else

QB · USCWashington at USC2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 20 25	vs Michigan State (-18.5)	3	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs Michigan (-3)	2	yes
Fri, Nov 7 25	vs Northwestern (-14.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs Iowa (-6.5)	1	no
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs UCLA (-21.5)	2	yes
Sat, Aug 29 26	vs San José State (-37.2)	2	yes
Fri, Sep 4 26	vs Fresno State (-22)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Louisiana (-30.8)	5	yes
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Oregon (+3.5)	2	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs Washington (-8.2)	1	no

Jeremiah Smith has 8 of his last 10 games in conference play with 6+ catches.hit (11)

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

9 of 15, 60% everywhere else

WR · Ohio StateOhio State at Iowa2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 27 25	at Washington (-9.5)	8	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Minnesota (-23.5)	7	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	at Illinois (-15)	6	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at Wisconsin (-24.5)	9	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs Penn State (-17.5)	6	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	at Purdue (-29.5)	10	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs UCLA (-33)	4	no
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Michigan (-9.5)	3	no
Sat, Sep 26 26	vs Illinois (-25.5)	12	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	at Iowa (-14.2)	11	yes

Amare Thomas has 5 of his last 6 games at home in conference play with 50+ receiving yards.missed (43)

5 of 6, 83% in this spot

8 of 12, 67% everywhere else

WR · HoustonUCF at Houston2025-2026

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Fri, Sep 12 25	vs Colorado (-4)	55	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Texas Tech (+13)	70	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Arizona (+2)	69	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs West Virginia (-13)	99	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs TCU (+1.5)	72	yes
Sat, Oct 3 26	vs UCF (-10.5)	43	no

Team trends26 of 40 hitagainst the spread and the total, last three seasons plus this one, in the spot this game put them in. The faded bar is the same team everywhere else; every card also beats the league in that spot.

Ball State has covered 9 of 10 as an underdog when our model likes themhit

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

13 of 29, 45% everywhere else

Ball StateToledo at Ball State, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Indiana has gone over 8 of 9 in prime timehit

8 of 9, 89% in this spot

19 of 32, 59% everywhere else

IndianaIndiana at Rutgers, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Colorado has covered 8 of 9 against a ranked teammissed

8 of 9, 89% in this spot

14 of 30, 47% everywhere else

ColoradoTexas Tech at Colorado, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Louisiana has covered 8 of 9 in conference play when our model likes themmissed

8 of 9, 89% in this spot

13 of 29, 45% everywhere else

LouisianaArkansas State at Louisiana, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Indiana has gone over 11 of 13 on the roadhit

11 of 13, 85% in this spot

16 of 28, 57% everywhere else

IndianaIndiana at Rutgers, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Ball State has covered 10 of 12 when our model likes themhit

10 of 12, 83% in this spot

12 of 27, 44% everywhere else

Ball StateToledo at Ball State, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Ball State has covered 14 of 17 at homehit

14 of 17, 82% in this spot

8 of 22, 36% everywhere else

Ball StateToledo at Ball State, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

San José State has gone over 8 of 10 with more rest than the opponentmissed

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

13 of 30, 43% everywhere else

San José StateSan José State at Hawai'i, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Miami (OH) has covered 20 of 25 as a favoritemissed

20 of 25, 80% in this spot

7 of 18, 39% everywhere else

Miami (OH)Bowling Green at Miami (OH), Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Boston College has covered 8 of 10 as an underdog of 14 or morehit

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

12 of 30, 40% everywhere else

Boston CollegeBoston College at SMU, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Virginia Tech has gone over 12 of 15 in prime timehit

12 of 15, 80% in this spot

12 of 25, 48% everywhere else

Virginia TechPittsburgh at Virginia Tech, Fri, Oct 22023-2026

Rutgers has gone over 19 of 24 at homehit

19 of 24, 79% in this spot

5 of 16, 31% everywhere else

RutgersIndiana at Rutgers, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

28 more team trends

Louisiana has gone over 11 of 14 when our model likes themmissed

11 of 14, 79% in this spot

11 of 26, 42% everywhere else

LouisianaArkansas State at Louisiana, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

San José State has covered 7 of 9 with more rest than the opponenthit

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

13 of 30, 43% everywhere else

San José StateSan José State at Hawai'i, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Charlotte has covered 7 of 9 as an underdog of 14 or more when our model likes themmissed

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

12 of 30, 40% everywhere else

CharlotteMemphis at Charlotte, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Bowling Green has covered 7 of 9 as an underdog when our model likes themhit

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

13 of 31, 42% everywhere else

Bowling GreenBowling Green at Miami (OH), Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Vanderbilt has gone over 7 of 9 when our model likes themhit

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

17 of 30, 57% everywhere else

VanderbiltVanderbilt at Georgia, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Alabama has gone over 7 of 9 on the road when our model likes themhit

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

17 of 33, 52% everywhere else

AlabamaAlabama at Mississippi State, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Penn State has covered 7 of 9 as a favorite when our model likes themmissed

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

14 of 32, 44% everywhere else

Penn StatePenn State at Northwestern, Fri, Oct 22023-2026

Army has covered 10 of 13 on the roadmissed

10 of 13, 77% in this spot

9 of 24, 38% everywhere else

ArmyArmy at Louisiana Tech, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Alabama has covered 10 of 13 in conference play when our model likes themhit

10 of 13, 77% in this spot

16 of 27, 59% everywhere else

AlabamaAlabama at Mississippi State, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Northwestern has covered 10 of 13 at homehit

10 of 13, 77% in this spot

11 of 24, 46% everywhere else

NorthwesternPenn State at Northwestern, Fri, Oct 22023-2026

West Virginia has gone over 13 of 17 coming off a losshit

13 of 17, 76% in this spot

12 of 22, 55% everywhere else

West VirginiaWest Virginia at Iowa State, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

West Virginia has gone over 13 of 17 on the roadhit

13 of 17, 76% in this spot

12 of 22, 55% everywhere else

West VirginiaWest Virginia at Iowa State, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Boise State has covered 16 of 21 at homemissed

16 of 21, 76% in this spot

10 of 19, 53% everywhere else

Boise StateUtah State at Boise State, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

BYU has covered 6 of 8 with more rest than the opponenthit

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

17 of 30, 57% everywhere else

BYUBYU at TCU, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Nebraska has covered 6 of 8 as a favorite of 14 or morehit

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

12 of 29, 41% everywhere else

NebraskaMaryland at Nebraska, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Memphis has gone over 18 of 24 in conference playhit

18 of 24, 75% in this spot

7 of 16, 44% everywhere else

MemphisMemphis at Charlotte, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

NC State has covered 6 of 8 at home when our model likes themhit

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

12 of 31, 39% everywhere else

NC StateLouisville at NC State, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Bowling Green has covered 6 of 8 on the road when our model likes themhit

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

14 of 32, 44% everywhere else

Bowling GreenBowling Green at Miami (OH), Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Western Michigan has covered 15 of 20 as a favoritemissed

15 of 20, 75% in this spot

8 of 20, 40% everywhere else

Western MichiganWestern Michigan at Buffalo, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Vanderbilt has gone over 6 of 8 in conference play when our model likes themhit

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

18 of 31, 58% everywhere else

VanderbiltVanderbilt at Georgia, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Michigan State has covered 12 of 16 on the roadmissed

12 of 16, 75% in this spot

7 of 23, 30% everywhere else

Michigan StateMichigan State at Wisconsin, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Middle Tennessee has gone over 6 of 8 when our model likes themhit

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

10 of 30, 33% everywhere else

Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee at Kansas, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Western Kentucky has gone over 6 of 8 on the road when our model likes themmissed

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

15 of 33, 46% everywhere else

Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky at New Mexico State, Thu, Oct 12023-2026

Marshall has gone over 6 of 8 as an underdog when our model likes themhit

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

15 of 33, 46% everywhere else

MarshallMarshall at James Madison, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Coastal Carolina has covered 9 of 12 in conference play when our model likes themmissed

9 of 12, 75% in this spot

11 of 28, 39% everywhere else

Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern at Coastal Carolina, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Coastal Carolina has covered 6 of 8 at home when our model likes themmissed

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

14 of 32, 44% everywhere else

Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern at Coastal Carolina, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Eastern Michigan has covered 11 of 15 when our model likes themhit

11 of 15, 73% in this spot

11 of 25, 44% everywhere else

Eastern MichiganEastern Michigan at Massachusetts, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

Toledo has gone over 11 of 15 as a favorite of 14 or morehit

11 of 15, 73% in this spot

13 of 26, 50% everywhere else

ToledoToledo at Ball State, Sat, Oct 32023-2026