Game lines · College · 2026

College week 5.

14 games with a line, 0 played. Our number is the one we logged before kickoff, never after. Leans, never plays: the sealed 2023-2025 read came back inside the luck band.

Week 5 leans: no lean settled yet. Counted where we differed by 2 or more and the row was clean; suspect rows (no Elo, or the big-spread defect) are shown and never counted.

Game	Market	Total	Our number	Lean	Final
Penn State @ NorthwesternFri, Oct 2 20:00	-7	48.5	Northwestern +11	Penn State -7	Fri, Oct 2 20:00
Pittsburgh @ Virginia TechFri, Oct 2 19:00	-6	56.5	Virginia Tech +1.6	Pittsburgh +6	Fri, Oct 2 19:00
Miami @ ClemsonSat, Oct 3 00:00	-17.5	50.5	Clemson +6.9	Clemson +17.5not counted	Sat, Oct 3 00:00
Vanderbilt @ GeorgiaSat, Oct 3 00:00	-23.5	57.5	Georgia -12.1	Vanderbilt +23.5not counted	Sat, Oct 3 00:00
Ohio State @ IowaSat, Oct 3 15:30	-14	44.5	Iowa +2.3	Iowa +14not counted	Sat, Oct 3 15:30
Michigan @ MinnesotaSat, Oct 3 12:00	-7.5	42.5	Minnesota +7.7	Michigan -7.5not counted	Sat, Oct 3 12:00
Alabama @ Mississippi StateSat, Oct 3 00:00	-3.5	59.5	Mississippi State +4.4	Alabama -3.5not counted	Sat, Oct 3 00:00
Florida @ MissouriSat, Oct 3 15:30	-3	54.5	Missouri -3	Missouri +3	Sat, Oct 3 15:30
Louisville @ NC StateSat, Oct 3 15:30	-7.5	59.5	NC State +4.1	NC State +7.5	Sat, Oct 3 15:30
Notre Dame @ North CarolinaSat, Oct 3 00:00	-20.5	49.5	North Carolina +17.3	North Carolina +20.5	Sat, Oct 3 00:00
Kentucky @ South CarolinaSat, Oct 3 16:15	-6	49.5	South Carolina -8.8	South Carolina -6	Sat, Oct 3 16:15
BYU @ TCUSat, Oct 3 19:00	-5.5	52.5	TCU +0.3	TCU +5.5	Sat, Oct 3 19:00
Auburn @ TennesseeSat, Oct 3 15:30	-7.5	58.5	Tennessee -8.7	Tennessee -7.5not counted	Sat, Oct 3 15:30
Washington @ USCSat, Oct 3 19:30	-10	57.5	USC -6.2	Washington +10	Sat, Oct 3 19:30

Opens College Matchup Preview This week's college board

College trends

Every FBS game log since 2022, joined to the opening line.

Published before kickoff and graded once the games are in.

Player trendstrue of the player and true of this game.

LJ Martin has 10 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.

10 of 10, 100% in this spot

8 of 15, 53% everywhere else

RB · BYUBYU at TCU2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 20 25	at East Carolina (-6.5)	101	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	at Colorado (-6.5)	53	yes
Fri, Oct 3 25	vs West Virginia (-19.5)	90	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	at Arizona (-2.5)	154	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs TCU (-3)	79	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at Cincinnati (-2.5)	222	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs UCF (-17.5)	95	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Utah Tech (-50)	54	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Arizona (-6.8)	98	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	at Colorado State (-17.5)	176	yes

Malachi Toney has 6 of his last 6 games on the road as a favorite with 6+ catches.

6 of 6, 100% in this spot

5 of 13, 38% everywhere else

WR · MiamiMiami at Clemson2025-2026

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 4 25	at Florida State (-3.5)	7	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	at SMU (-8.5)	9	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	at Virginia Tech (-17.5)	12	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Pittsburgh (-6.5)	13	yes
Fri, Sep 4 26	at Stanford (-24.5)	12	yes
Fri, Sep 18 26	at Wake Forest (-20.2)	12	yes

Jadan Baugh has 10 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ rushing yards.

10 of 10, 100% in this spot

10 of 17, 59% everywhere else

RB · FloridaFlorida at Missouri2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 21 24	at Mississippi State (-6.5)	53	yes
Sat, Nov 30 24	at Florida State (-17)	81	yes
Fri, Dec 20 24	at Tulane (-10)	70	yes
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Long Island University (-46.8)	139	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs South Florida (-18.5)	93	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Mississippi State (-9.5)	140	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	at Kentucky (-4.5)	64	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Florida Atlantic (-26.5)	160	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Campbell (-51.5)	136	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	at Auburn (-2.5)	158	yes

Carson Hansen has 9 of his last 10 games in conference play with 50+ rushing yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

4 of 11, 36% everywhere else

RB · Penn StatePenn State at Northwestern2024-2025

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs Kansas State (-2)	58	yes
Sat, Dec 7 24	at Arizona State (-1.5)	67	yes
Sat, Aug 23 25	at Kansas State (+3)	71	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Arizona (-4)	63	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	at Cincinnati (+1.5)	33	no
Sat, Oct 25 25	vs BYU (-2.5)	152	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs Arizona State (-7.5)	113	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	at TCU (+7.5)	107	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Kansas (-3.5)	120	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Oklahoma State (-14)	108	yes

Keshaun Singleton has 6 of his last 6 games as an underdog with 50+ receiving yards.

6 of 6, 100% in this spot

10 of 15, 67% everywhere else

WR · AuburnAuburn at Tennessee2024-2026

The 6 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Nov 9 24	vs Navy (+4.5)	58	yes
Thu, Aug 28 25	vs Boise State (+5.5)	93	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	at Florida (+18.5)	75	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	at Miami (+17.5)	54	yes
Fri, Oct 10 25	at North Texas (+2.5)	54	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Florida (+2.5)	99	yes

Victor Snow has 7 of his last 8 games at home in conference play with 50+ receiving yards.

7 of 8, 88% in this spot

7 of 21, 33% everywhere else

WR · NC StateLouisville at NC State2024-2025

The 8 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 12 24	vs Toledo (+10.5)	27	no
Sat, Oct 19 24	vs Western Michigan (+1.5)	84	yes
Tue, Nov 12 24	vs Ball State (-3.5)	74	yes
Tue, Nov 26 24	vs Kent State (-23.5)	99	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Eastern Michigan (-9.5)	136	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	vs Akron (-10)	56	yes
Wed, Nov 19 25	vs Miami (OH) (+2.5)	111	yes
Fri, Nov 28 25	vs Ohio (+7)	82	yes

Devin McCuin has 8 of his last 10 games as a favorite with 50+ receiving yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

2 of 9, 22% everywhere else

WR · Ohio StateOhio State at Iowa2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Texas State (-4.5)	83	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Incarnate Word (-21)	64	yes
Sat, Sep 20 25	at Colorado State (-5)	50	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	at Temple (-6.5)	35	no
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs Rice (-9.5)	64	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	at Charlotte (-17)	55	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs Army (-8.5)	86	yes
Fri, Dec 26 25	at Florida International (-7)	50	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs Ball State (-50.8)	97	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Kent State (-52.2)	29	no

Jayden Maiava has 9 of his last 10 games at home with 2+ passing touchdowns.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

5 of 9, 56% everywhere else

QB · USCWashington at USC2025-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Missouri State (-36.5)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Georgia Southern (-28.8)	4	yes
Sat, Sep 20 25	vs Michigan State (-18.5)	3	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	vs Michigan (-3)	2	yes
Fri, Nov 7 25	vs Northwestern (-14.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	vs Iowa (-6.5)	1	no
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs UCLA (-21.5)	2	yes
Sat, Aug 29 26	vs San José State (-37.2)	2	yes
Fri, Sep 4 26	vs Fresno State (-22)	2	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Louisiana (-30.8)	5	yes

Kamari Moulton has 9 of his last 10 games in conference play with 50+ rushing yards.

9 of 10, 90% in this spot

5 of 9, 56% everywhere else

RB · IowaOhio State at Iowa2024-2025

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Fri, Nov 29 24	vs Nebraska (-3)	-4	no
Fri, Sep 19 25	at Rutgers (-2.5)	68	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Indiana (+9.5)	75	yes
Sat, Oct 11 25	at Wisconsin (-5)	96	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Penn State (-3)	99	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	vs Minnesota (-7.5)	75	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Oregon (+4.5)	87	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	at USC (+6.5)	90	yes
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Michigan State (-17.5)	78	yes
Fri, Nov 28 25	at Nebraska (-5.5)	93	yes

CJ Bailey has 7 of his last 8 games at home in conference play with 2+ passing touchdowns.

7 of 8, 88% in this spot

9 of 19, 47% everywhere else

QB · NC StateLouisville at NC State2024-2025

The 8 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Oct 5 24	vs Wake Forest (-4)	2	yes
Sat, Oct 12 24	vs Syracuse (+1)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 2 24	vs Stanford (-9.5)	3	yes
Sat, Nov 9 24	vs Duke (-3)	1	no
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Virginia Tech (-10)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 1 25	vs Georgia Tech (+4.5)	2	yes
Fri, Nov 21 25	vs Florida State (+6.5)	2	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs North Carolina (-7)	2	yes

Bryant Wesco Jr. has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

4 of 10, 40% everywhere else

WR · ClemsonMiami at Clemson2024-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Sep 28 24	vs Stanford (-24)	104	yes
Sat, Nov 2 24	vs Louisville (-11)	53	yes
Sat, Nov 23 24	vs The Citadel (-49)	75	yes
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs South Carolina (-2.5)	80	yes
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs LSU (-5.5)	66	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Troy (-30.2)	118	yes
Sat, Sep 20 25	vs Syracuse (-17.5)	83	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs SMU (-3.5)	0	no
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Georgia Southern (-20)	35	no
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs North Carolina (-3)	77	yes

Bill Davis has 8 of his last 10 games at home with 50+ rushing yards.

8 of 10, 80% in this spot

6 of 13, 46% everywhere else

RB · Virginia TechPittsburgh at Virginia Tech2024-2025

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Sat, Nov 9 24	vs Arkansas State (-14)	155	yes
Sat, Nov 16 24	vs South Alabama (-6.5)	55	yes
Sat, Nov 23 24	vs Troy (-7.5)	64	yes
Sat, Dec 7 24	vs Marshall (-5)	-2	no
Sat, Aug 30 25	vs Rice (-9.5)	58	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs McNeese (-19.2)	116	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Marshall (+2.5)	45	no
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Southern Miss (+4.5)	57	yes
Sat, Nov 8 25	vs Texas State (+3.5)	87	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs UL Monroe (-11)	126	yes

1 more college trends

Griffin Wilde has 6 of his last 7 games at home with 50+ receiving yards.

6 of 7, 86% in this spot

5 of 8, 62% everywhere else

WR · NorthwesternPenn State at Northwestern2025-2026

The 7 games

Game	Spot	Stat	Hit
Fri, Sep 5 25	vs Western Illinois (-31)	94	yes
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Oregon (+25.5)	55	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs UCLA (-6)	98	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs UL Monroe (-12.5)	64	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Purdue (-3.5)	47	no
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs South Dakota State (-13.2)	104	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Colorado (-3.5)	85	yes

Team trendsagainst the spread and the total, last three seasons plus this one, in the spot this game put them in. The faded bar is the same team everywhere else; every card also beats the league in that spot.

Virginia Tech has gone over 19 of 25 as a favorite

19 of 25, 76% in this spot

5 of 14, 36% everywhere else

Virginia TechPittsburgh at Virginia Tech, Fri, Oct 22023-2026

The 25 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Sat, Sep 19 26	at Maryland	yes
Sat, Sep 12 26	vs Old Dominion	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs VMI	yes
Fri, Oct 24 25	vs California	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs Wake Forest	yes
Sat, Sep 20 25	vs Wofford	no
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Old Dominion	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Vanderbilt	yes
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs Virginia	yes
Sat, Nov 23 24	at Duke	yes
Sat, Nov 2 24	at Syracuse	yes
Sat, Oct 26 24	vs Georgia Tech	no
Thu, Oct 17 24	vs Boston College	yes
Sat, Oct 5 24	at Stanford	no
Sat, Sep 21 24	vs Rutgers	yes
Sat, Sep 14 24	at Old Dominion	yes
Sat, Sep 7 24	vs Marshall	no
Sat, Aug 31 24	at Vanderbilt	yes
Sat, Nov 25 23	at Virginia	yes
Sat, Nov 18 23	vs NC State	yes
Sat, Nov 11 23	at Boston College	yes
Thu, Oct 26 23	vs Syracuse	yes
Sat, Oct 14 23	vs Wake Forest	no
Sat, Sep 9 23	vs Purdue	no
Sat, Sep 2 23	vs Old Dominion	yes

Miami has covered 9 of 11 with more rest than the opponent

9 of 11, 82% in this spot

13 of 28, 46% everywhere else

MiamiMiami at Clemson, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

The 11 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Fri, Sep 18 26	at Wake Forest	no
Fri, Sep 4 26	at Stanford	yes
Sat, Oct 25 25	vs Stanford	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	at Florida State	yes
Sun, Aug 31 25	vs Notre Dame	yes
Sat, Nov 23 24	vs Wake Forest	yes
Sat, Oct 19 24	at Louisville	yes
Sat, Oct 7 23	vs Georgia Tech	no
Sat, Sep 23 23	at Temple	yes
Sat, Sep 9 23	vs Texas A&M	yes
Fri, Sep 1 23	vs Miami (OH)	yes

Virginia Tech has gone over 12 of 15 in prime time

12 of 15, 80% in this spot

12 of 24, 50% everywhere else

Virginia TechPittsburgh at Virginia Tech, Fri, Oct 22023-2026

The 15 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Sat, Sep 19 26	at Maryland	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs VMI	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Virginia	no
Sat, Nov 15 25	at Florida State	no
Fri, Oct 24 25	vs California	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	at NC State	no
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Old Dominion	yes
Sat, Sep 6 25	vs Vanderbilt	yes
Sat, Nov 30 24	vs Virginia	yes
Sat, Nov 23 24	at Duke	yes
Thu, Oct 17 24	vs Boston College	yes
Fri, Sep 27 24	at Miami	yes
Thu, Oct 26 23	vs Syracuse	yes
Sat, Sep 30 23	vs Pittsburgh	yes
Sat, Sep 2 23	vs Old Dominion	yes

Northwestern has covered 10 of 13 at home

10 of 13, 77% in this spot

11 of 24, 46% everywhere else

NorthwesternPenn State at Northwestern, Fri, Oct 22023-2026

The 13 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Colorado	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs South Dakota State	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	vs Purdue	yes
Sat, Oct 4 25	vs UL Monroe	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs UCLA	no
Sat, Sep 13 25	vs Oregon	yes
Fri, Sep 5 25	vs Western Illinois	yes
Sat, Nov 18 23	vs Purdue	yes
Sat, Oct 28 23	vs Maryland	yes
Sat, Oct 7 23	vs Howard	no
Sat, Sep 30 23	vs Penn State	no
Sat, Sep 23 23	vs Minnesota	yes
Sat, Sep 9 23	vs UTEP	yes

NC State has covered 6 of 8 at home when our model likes them

6 of 8, 75% in this spot

12 of 30, 40% everywhere else

NC StateLouisville at NC State, Sat, Oct 32023-2026

The 8 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Sat, Nov 29 25	vs North Carolina	yes
Fri, Nov 21 25	vs Florida State	yes
Sat, Nov 2 24	vs Stanford	yes
Sat, Oct 12 24	vs Syracuse	no
Sat, Oct 5 24	vs Wake Forest	no
Sat, Nov 25 23	vs North Carolina	yes
Sat, Nov 4 23	vs Miami	yes
Sat, Oct 28 23	vs Clemson	yes

Penn State has covered 7 of 9 as a favorite when our model likes them

7 of 9, 78% in this spot

14 of 31, 45% everywhere else

Penn StatePenn State at Northwestern, Fri, Oct 22023-2026

The 9 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Rutgers	no
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Nebraska	yes
Sat, Nov 15 25	at Michigan State	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Oregon	no
Sat, Aug 31 24	at West Virginia	yes
Fri, Nov 24 23	at Michigan State	yes
Sat, Nov 18 23	vs Rutgers	yes
Sat, Nov 4 23	at Maryland	yes
Sat, Sep 2 23	vs West Virginia	yes

Penn State has covered 7 of 10 in prime time

7 of 10, 70% in this spot

14 of 30, 47% everywhere else

Penn StatePenn State at Northwestern, Fri, Oct 22023-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Sat, Nov 22 25	vs Nebraska	yes
Sat, Oct 18 25	at Iowa	yes
Sat, Sep 27 25	vs Oregon	no
Sat, Dec 7 24	at Oregon	no
Sat, Nov 9 24	vs Washington	yes
Sat, Oct 26 24	at Wisconsin	yes
Sat, Sep 28 24	vs Illinois	no
Fri, Nov 24 23	at Michigan State	yes
Sat, Sep 23 23	vs Iowa	yes
Sat, Sep 2 23	vs West Virginia	yes

Northwestern has gone over 7 of 10 in prime time

7 of 10, 70% in this spot

14 of 28, 50% everywhere else

NorthwesternPenn State at Northwestern, Fri, Oct 22023-2026

The 10 games

Game	Spot	Hit
Fri, Sep 25 26	at Indiana	yes
Sat, Sep 19 26	vs Colorado	yes
Sat, Sep 5 26	vs South Dakota State	yes
Sat, Nov 29 25	at Illinois	no
Fri, Nov 7 25	at USC	yes
Fri, Oct 11 24	at Maryland	yes
Sat, Sep 21 24	at Washington	no
Sat, Sep 14 24	vs Eastern Illinois	no
Fri, Sep 6 24	vs Duke	yes
Sat, Sep 23 23	vs Minnesota	yes