Davis Mills

QB·

Houston Texans·#10·6'4"·225 lb·5th year·Stanford

Tier 8Round 3, pick 67 in 2021

Updated November 6, 2026

76.0

Model Score

Down from 79.3 last year

Trade value ·a 7th

Player comps Be the Texans GM →

Davis Mills is a QB for the Houston Texans on a deal paying $7M a year through 2026, a $5.1M cap hit in 2026 (updated November 6, 2026).

Model Score by season

Down 3.3 from last season.

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

A well-paid backup quarterback with starting experience.

The case for

Two years of NFL starting experience (2021-2022) plus the Stanford Pac-12 3rd-round draft pedigree gives him real QB2 market value.
$10.5M extension reflects the front office's view that Mills is the structural backup QB to C.J. Stroud.

The worry

Career STTM range as a starter (2021-2022) was tier 8 confirming the structural ceiling caps at backup-QB territory.
Houston's broader QB room transition around C.J. Stroud's contract reset compresses the structural value of the QB2 spot.

What to watch: Whether Mills holds the QB2 role for the full 2026 Texans season or whether Houston drafts a developmental QB.

Full take and bio

$10.5M extension as Houston's structural QB2 behind C.J. Stroud puts Mills in the rare elite-QB2 backup market value class. The Stanford Pac-12 3rd-round origin plus two years of NFL starting experience give him real backup market value. The 2026 question is whether Mills holds the QB2 role or whether Houston explores a draft replacement at the position.

Mills came out of Stanford as the Houston Texans' 3rd-round pick (67th overall) in 2021. He was the Texans' starter for two seasons (2021-2022) before C.J. Stroud's arrival pushed him into the QB2 role. He has remained Houston's backup QB across three seasons and signed a two-year, $10.5M extension in 2025.

Comps

The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.

Jacoby Brissett ’2181%Derek Anderson ’0881%

Mac Jones ’2473%

Chad Henne ’1270%Kevin Kolb ’1069%

Plays like: Blaine Gabbert, Tony Banks, Jay Fiedler. Built like: Skylar Thompson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Curtis Painter. Coming out: Sam Darnold, Ryan Finley, Kirk Cousins.

Of his 20 closest coming out: 4 stars, 1 starter, 7 backups, 8 didn't stick.