Jake Browning
Tampa Bay Buccaneers·#6Model Score
How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →
Season Stats · 5 games
Advanced Metrics EPA & Next Gen Stats
STM Take
The drop from #12 in 2023 to #37 in 2025 captures the entire arc. Browning was an excellent injury fill-in during Burrow's 2023 absence, but defenses had real tape on him by 2025 and the production regressed sharply. His 2026 ceiling is bounded by what he showed once defensive coordinators could prepare for him as a multi-week starter, which is below replacement-level efficiency.
Browning came out of Washington as the Pac-12 career leader in passing touchdowns when he graduated, but went undrafted in 2019 after a forgettable senior season. He spent three years on Minnesota's practice squad before Cincinnati signed him in 2022 as Joe Burrow's backup. When Burrow tore his wrist in November 2023, Browning started seven games, went 4-3, posted a 70.4% completion rate and 7.7 yards per attempt, and earned the #12 tier-3 STTM finish that still anchors his profile.
Strengths
- Has shown he can run Cincinnati's offense at a starter-grade level (#12 ranking in 2023 with a 70.4% completion rate over 7 starts is a real sample). System familiarity with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and the Burrow scheme is the calling card.
- Two 2025 games at 17+ PPR (17.74, 19.14) prove the spike potential remains in the right matchups. Above-average pre-snap recognition for an undrafted backup.
Concerns
- The two-year arc from #12 to #37 confirms what scouts saw in 2019: defenses adjust to his arm limitations once they see live tape across a multi-week sample.
- Three 2025 games under 6 PPR (5.4, 5.9, 0.56) show what regression looks like. Career yards per attempt under 7.0 is the structural ceiling.
What to watch: Whether his 2026 role behind Burrow stays intact or Cincinnati upgrades the backup spot for a cheaper, more mobile veteran.
Fantasy Outlook
Jake Browning scored 49 PPR points, 9.7 per game this season. Compare him against any QB and track weekly rankings in our fantasy tools.