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Kyler Murray

QB·Minnesota Vikings·#1·5'10"·207 lb·7th year·Oklahoma
UNDERPAIDTier 1Round 1, pick 1 in 2019
Updated November 4, 2026
81.1
Model Score
Down from 81.9 last year
Trade value ·a 7th

Kyler Murray has 1,022 passing yards, 5 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions and 167 rushing yards in 6 games for the Minnesota Vikings this season through Week 8, 11.9 PPR points a game (updated November 4, 2026).

Model Score by season

Down 0.8 from last season.

809081.120192020202120222023202420252026

How good he is at what he is supposed to be doing, out of 100. Not a projection of what he will do next, and not a read on his contract. Median is about 70, and a 95 is rare. How it is built →

STM Take

A dual-threat quarterback whose availability now drives the story.

The case for

  • 67.1 percent career completion percentage ranks fifth all-time among QBs with at least 1,500 attempts.
  • 3,193 career rushing yards and 32 rushing TDs add a high-floor fantasy profile that the tier-1 pocket passers lack.

The worry

  • Three of the last four STTM seasons at tier 6 or worse; the 2021 tier-2 peak now reads as the outlier, not the baseline.
  • Only 5 games played in 2025 means availability is now a recurring story, not a one-time injury.

What to watch: Health and snap count. The high-floor profile cannot show up in the rank if he is not on the field.

Full take and bio

Murray's 2025 finish at STTM #25 tier 7 across 5 games closes a four-year stretch reading #8, #22, #13, #25. The profile has not strung together two tier-3-or-better seasons since 2020-21. The talent profile (67.1 percent career completion, 32 career rushing TDs) keeps the resume credible, but the rank trajectory points sideways at best.

Murray was born in Bedford, Texas, won three straight state titles at Allen High School, and was the first player ever drafted in the first round of both Major League Baseball (Athletics, 9th overall, 2018) and the NFL. He played at Texas A&M for a year, transferred to Oklahoma, and won the 2018 Heisman Trophy and AP College Football Player of the Year. Arizona took him first overall in the 2019 NFL Draft, he won Offensive Rookie of the Year, and has earned two Pro Bowls (2020, 2021). He ranks fifth all-time in completion percentage among QBs with at least 1,500 attempts.

Comps

The players whose size, testing and production looked most like his at the same point in their careers. The percent is how close.

Plays like: David Carr, Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson. Built like: Russell Wilson, Bryce Young, Seneca Wallace. Coming out: Johnny Manziel.

Of his 20 closest coming out: 4 stars, 2 starters, 5 backups, 9 didn't stick.

Kyler Murray Props This Weekat DET

MarketLineOverUnder
Passing yards224.5-115 Bovada-115 Bovada
Rushing yards24.5-120 Bovada-110 Bovada

Best price across 9 books as of Mon Nov 2. Lines move; check the book before you bet. This week's board · Line Room

Play Kyler's numbers on Underdog · partner link

Kyler Murray Injury StatusQuestionable

Kyler Murray is listed Questionable (Hamstring), reported Nov 2. Source: the official NFL injury report, refreshed daily.

This season · 6 games

Pass Yds1,02227th
Pass TD527th
INT34th
Comp %65.4%14th
Rush Yds1676th
Rush TD022nd
Fantasy PPG11.927th
Total EPA-17.023rd
EPA / dropback-0.12126th
Time to throw2.94s
Avg air yards8.2
Aggressiveness11.2%
Longest comp (air)51 yd22nd

11.9 fantasy points a game, 72 PPR on the season. Every game on the Game Log, every season on Career. Advanced numbers are EPA and Next Gen Stats.

Contract2026 cap

2026 Cap Hit
$1.3M
APY
$1.3M/yr
Guaranteed at Signing
$103.3M
Years on Deal
1
Signed
2026
Est. Value
$32.8M/yr
underpaid by $31.5M/yr

Every year of the deal, the dead money and what a cut or trade saves on the Contract tab.

Fantasy outlookWeek 9

Our rest-of-season board has Kyler Murray at QB19 (the public consensus says QB20); the model has 147 PPR points left for him this season; this week he visits DET.

Price a trade for him on the fantasy trade calculator, or see the whole board on the Fantasy hub.

Draft & College

Round 1, pick 1 to the Arizona Cardinals in 2019, out of Oklahoma (Big 12). He went about where consensus had him.

Taken#1
Consensus board3rd
Our college model#121 QB

In college, 2015-2018, 25 games: 5,240 pass yds, 50 TD, 11 INT, 64.2% completions.

Recruited

Class of 2015 · Quarterback · High school: Allen, TX

Recruiting sites
★★★★★
No. 34 in the nation. Composite 0.9854, the recruiting sites' average
Offer strength, our grade
93 of 100
Better offers than 98% of the 2015 class. How it is made
Offers
14
Schools that offered him a scholarship
Committed to

His offer board, and the recruits whose boards look like it now →

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