Weekly Lines · 2010
Week 1.
16 games and 13 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 9-4, +4.5u flat at -110. Season through week 1: 9-4, +4.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 MIN @  NOThu, Sep 9 20:30 ET | NO +4.5 | 48.5 | MIN 9 at NO 14NO +4.5 closed · NO covered |
 ARI @  STLSun, Sep 12 16:15 ET | STL -3 | 39.5 | ARI 17 at STL 13STL -3 closed · ARI covered |
 ATL @  PITSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | PIT -1 | 38.5 | ATL 9 at PIT 15PIT -1 closed · PIT covered |
 CAR @  NYGSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | NYG +5.5 | 40.5 | CAR 18 at NYG 31NYG +5.5 closed · NYG covered |
 CIN @  NESun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | NE +5 | 44.5 | CIN 24 at NE 38NE +5 closed · NE covered |
 CLE @  TBSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | TB +2.5 | 37 | CLE 14 at TB 17TB +2.5 closed · TB covered |
 DAL @  WASSun, Sep 12 20:20 ET | WAS -3.5 | 39.5 | DAL 7 at WAS 13WAS -3.5 closed · WAS covered |
 DEN @  JAXSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | JAX +3 | 41.5 | DEN 17 at JAX 24JAX +3 closed · JAX covered |
 DET @  CHISun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | CHI +6.5 | 44.5 | DET 14 at CHI 19CHI +6.5 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  PHISun, Sep 12 16:15 ET | PHI -3 | 47.5 | GB 27 at PHI 20PHI -3 closed · GB covered |
 IND @  HOUSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | HOU -1 | 47.5 | IND 24 at HOU 34HOU -1 closed · HOU covered |
 MIA @  BUFSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | BUF -3 | 39.5 | MIA 15 at BUF 10BUF -3 closed · MIA covered |
 OAK @  TENSun, Sep 12 13:00 ET | TEN +6.5 | 39.5 | OAK 13 at TEN 38TEN +6.5 closed · TEN covered |
 SF @  SEASun, Sep 12 16:15 ET | SEA -3 | 37 | SF 6 at SEA 31SEA -3 closed · SEA covered |
 BAL @  NYJMon, Sep 13 19:00 ET | NYJ +1 | 36.5 | BAL 10 at NYJ 9NYJ +1 closed · BAL covered |
 SD @  KCMon, Sep 13 22:15 ET | KC -4 | 45.5 | SD 14 at KC 21KC -4 closed · KC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
ARI @ 
LAR WIN ARI -3 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, division game, in a dome 29-15 (66%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 23-14 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, better coach, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 16-10 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
ATL @ PIT WIN ATL -1 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, better QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 44-25 (64%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, better coach, low total (41 or under) 28-17 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 93-59 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
DET @ CHI WIN DET +6.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, worse QB, division game 50-31 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, worse QB, division game 54-35 (61%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, on the road, worse QB, division game 39-26 (60%)
LAC @ KC WIN LAC -4 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, elite QB, better coach, division game 56-34 (62%)
CAR @ NYG LOSS NYG -5.5 2.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 19-9 (68%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 31-16 (66%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 27-15 (64%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
LV @ TEN LOSS TEN -6.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, at home, better coach, low total (41 or under) 57-33 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, better coach, low total (41 or under) 93-59 (61%)
MIN @ NO TOTALWIN Under 48.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), early season 19-8 (70%)
- under when high total (48+) 70-40 (64%)
- under when in a dome, high total (48+) 22-17 (56%)
CAR @ NYG TOTALLOSS Under 40.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 65-51 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, on turf 37-30 (55%)
DAL @ WAS TOTALWIN Under 39.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 43-31 (58%)
MIA @ BUF TOTALWIN Under 39.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 43-31 (58%)
ARI @ STL TOTALLOSS Over 39.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 41-27 (60%)
- over when in a dome, division game 57-44 (56%)
- over when in a dome, line inside 3 47-38 (55%)
IND @ HOU TOTALWIN Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, division game 57-44 (56%)
- over when in a dome, line inside 3 47-38 (55%)
OAK @ TEN TOTALWIN Over 39.5 1.0u
- over when early season, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 48-32 (60%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.