Weekly Lines · 2010
Week 8.
13 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-5, +5.5u flat at -110. Season through week 8: 72-38, +45.3u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUF @  KCSun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | KC +7 | 45 | BUF 10 at KC 13KC +7 closed · BUF covered |
 CAR @  STLSun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | STL +2.5 | 38 | CAR 10 at STL 20STL +2.5 closed · STL covered |
 DEN @  SFSun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | SF +2 | 41 | DEN 16 at SF 24SF +2 closed · SF covered |
 GB @  NYJSun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | NYJ +6.5 | 41.5 | GB 9 at NYJ 0NYJ +6.5 closed · GB covered |
 JAX @  DALSun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | DAL +6.5 | 43.5 | JAX 35 at DAL 17DAL +6.5 closed · JAX covered |
 MIA @  CINSun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | CIN -1 | 43 | MIA 22 at CIN 14CIN -1 closed · MIA covered |
 MIN @  NESun, Oct 31 16:15 ET | NE +5 | 44.5 | MIN 18 at NE 28NE +5 closed · NE covered |
 PIT @  NOSun, Oct 31 20:20 ET | NO +1 | 45 | PIT 10 at NO 20NO +1 closed · NO covered |
 SEA @  OAKSun, Oct 31 16:15 ET | OAK +1.5 | 39.5 | SEA 3 at OAK 33OAK +1.5 closed · OAK covered |
 TB @  ARISun, Oct 31 16:15 ET | ARI +3 | 38 | TB 38 at ARI 35ARI +3 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  SDSun, Oct 31 16:05 ET | SD +6 | 45 | TEN 25 at SD 33SD +6 closed · SD covered |
 WAS @  DETSun, Oct 31 13:00 ET | DET +2.5 | 44.5 | WAS 25 at DET 37DET +2.5 closed · DET covered |
 HOU @  INDMon, Nov 1 20:30 ET | IND +5.5 | 50.5 | HOU 17 at IND 30IND +5.5 closed · IND covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ 
LAR - model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, better coach, in a dome 17-5 (77%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, won last week, in a dome 15-5 (75%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 22-8 (73%)
- and 15 more angles on this side
MIN @ NE - model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, elite QB, better coach 41-23 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 53-32 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, elite QB, better coach 42-26 (62%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
SEA @ 
LV - model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, won last week, better record 17-6 (74%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, better record, worse QB 16-7 (70%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, won last week, better record 18-8 (69%)
- and 9 more angles on this side
WAS @ DET - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 21-12 (64%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better record, in a dome 17-10 (63%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, better coach, in a dome 23-14 (62%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
MIN @ NE TOTAL- under when windy, on turf 24-10 (71%)
GB @ NYJ TOTAL- under when windy, on turf 24-10 (71%)
TB @ ARI TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 41-27 (60%)
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 46-32 (59%)
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
CAR @ STL TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 41-27 (60%)
- over when in a dome, line inside 3 47-38 (55%)
PIT @ NO TOTAL- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
- over when in a dome, line inside 3 47-38 (55%)
WAS @ DET TOTAL- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
- over when in a dome, line inside 3 47-38 (55%)
JAX @ DAL TOTAL- over when a new starting QB, home team off Monday night 20-15 (57%)
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
DEN @ SF TOTAL- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 46-32 (59%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.