Weekly Lines · 2010
Week 13.
16 games and 7 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-4, -1.5u flat at -110. Season through week 13: 109-59, +63.6u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 HOU @  PHIThu, Dec 2 20:20 ET | PHI +8.5 | 51 | HOU 24 at PHI 34PHI +8.5 closed · PHI covered |
 ATL @  TBSun, Dec 5 16:15 ET | TB -3 | 43.5 | ATL 28 at TB 24TB -3 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  MINSun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | MIN +5 | 43.5 | BUF 14 at MIN 38MIN +5 closed · MIN covered |
 CAR @  SEASun, Dec 5 16:15 ET | SEA +4.5 | 40 | CAR 14 at SEA 31SEA +4.5 closed · SEA covered |
 CHI @  DETSun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | DET -5 | 43 | CHI 24 at DET 20DET -5 closed · DET covered |
 CLE @  MIASun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | MIA +6 | 43.5 | CLE 13 at MIA 10MIA +6 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  INDSun, Dec 5 16:15 ET | IND +5.5 | 47.5 | DAL 38 at IND 35IND +5.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DEN @  KCSun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | KC +9 | 48 | DEN 6 at KC 10KC +9 closed · DEN covered |
 JAX @  TENSun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | TEN +3 | 43.5 | JAX 17 at TEN 6TEN +3 closed · JAX covered |
 NO @  CINSun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | CIN -6.5 | 45 | NO 34 at CIN 30CIN -6.5 closed · CIN covered |
 OAK @  SDSun, Dec 5 16:05 ET | SD +12.5 | 44.5 | OAK 28 at SD 13SD +12.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PIT @  BALSun, Dec 5 20:20 ET | BAL +3 | 38 | PIT 13 at BAL 10BAL +3 closed · PIT covered |
 SF @  GBSun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | GB +9 | 41 | SF 16 at GB 34GB +9 closed · GB covered |
 STL @  ARISun, Dec 5 16:15 ET | ARI -3 | 43.5 | STL 19 at ARI 6ARI -3 closed · STL covered |
 WAS @  NYGSun, Dec 5 13:00 ET | NYG +7 | 43 | WAS 7 at NYG 31NYG +7 closed · NYG covered |
 NYJ @  NEMon, Dec 6 20:30 ET | NE +4 | 44.5 | NYJ 3 at NE 45NE +4 closed · NE covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
SF @ GB - model fades them by 0.5+, lost last week, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 24-11 (69%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 31-16 (66%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 37-20 (65%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
CAR @ SEA - model likes them by 1.0+, favorite, worse QB, on turf 14-7 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, favorite, at home, got blown out last week 13-8 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, better record, worse QB, on turf 23-15 (60%)
NYJ @ NE TOTAL- under when windy, on turf 24-10 (71%)
- under when windy, under 40 degrees 19-13 (59%)
- under when windy, division game 34-25 (58%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
STL @ ARI TOTAL- over when late season, home team off Monday night 20-10 (67%)
- over when line inside 3, home team off Monday night 21-12 (64%)
- over when in a dome, division game 57-44 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CHI @ DET TOTAL- over when in a dome, division game 57-44 (56%)
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
DAL @ IND TOTAL- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
JAX @ TEN TOTAL- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 24-18 (57%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.