Weekly Lines · 2010
Week 10.
14 games and 10 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 8-2, +8.8u flat at -110. Season through week 10: 87-43, +58.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BAL @  ATLThu, Nov 11 20:20 ET | ATL +1 | 43.5 | BAL 21 at ATL 26ATL +1 closed · ATL covered |
 CAR @  TBSun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | TB +7 | 36.5 | CAR 16 at TB 31TB +7 closed · TB covered |
 CIN @  INDSun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | IND +6.5 | 47 | CIN 17 at IND 23IND +6.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  NYGSun, Nov 14 16:15 ET | NYG +11.5 | 46 | DAL 33 at NYG 20NYG +11.5 closed · DAL covered |
 DET @  BUFSun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | BUF +1.5 | 45 | DET 12 at BUF 14BUF +1.5 closed · BUF covered |
 HOU @  JAXSun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | JAX +1 | 48 | HOU 24 at JAX 31JAX +1 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  DENSun, Nov 14 16:05 ET | DEN -1 | 44 | KC 29 at DEN 49DEN -1 closed · DEN covered |
 MIN @  CHISun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | CHI +1 | 41 | MIN 13 at CHI 27CHI +1 closed · CHI covered |
 NE @  PITSun, Nov 14 20:20 ET | PIT +4.5 | 44.5 | NE 39 at PIT 26PIT +4.5 closed · NE covered |
 NYJ @  CLESun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | CLE -3.5 | 37 | NYJ 26 at CLE 20CLE -3.5 closed · NYJ covered |
 SEA @  ARISun, Nov 14 16:15 ET | ARI +3.5 | 41 | SEA 36 at ARI 18ARI +3.5 closed · SEA covered |
 STL @  SFSun, Nov 14 16:15 ET | SF +4.5 | 38.5 | STL 20 at SF 23SF +4.5 closed · STL covered |
 TEN @  MIASun, Nov 14 13:00 ET | MIA +1 | 43 | TEN 17 at MIA 29MIA +1 closed · MIA covered |
 PHI @  WASMon, Nov 15 20:30 ET | WAS -3.5 | 43.5 | PHI 59 at WAS 28WAS -3.5 closed · PHI covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
SEA @ ARI - model fades them by 0.5+, worse record, better coach, in a dome 22-8 (73%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, division game, in a dome 35-13 (73%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, division game, in a dome 29-11 (72%)
- and 30 more angles on this side
NYJ @ CLE - model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, won last week, blew someone out last week 15-7 (68%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, blew someone out last week 15-7 (68%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, underdog, blew someone out last week 17-10 (63%)
- and 8 more angles on this side
DET @ BUF - model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, better record 24-15 (62%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, on the road, better record 24-15 (62%)
NE @ PIT - model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, elite QB 62-40 (61%)
HOU @ JAX TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 25-13 (66%)
- under when high total (48+) 70-40 (64%)
- under when high total (48+), line inside 3 24-14 (63%)
MIN @ CHI TOTAL- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 49-36 (58%)
- under when windy, division game 34-25 (58%)
NYJ @ CLE TOTAL- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 49-36 (58%)
SEA @ ARI TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 41-27 (60%)
- over when in a dome, division game 57-44 (56%)
BAL @ ATL TOTAL- over when in a dome, line inside 3 47-38 (55%)
TEN @ MIA TOTAL- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.