Weekly Lines · 2010
Week 17.
16 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 6-9, -4.1u flat at -110. Season through week 17: 134-85, +57.4u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI @  SFSun, Jan 2 16:15 ET | SF +6 | 39.5 | ARI 7 at SF 38SF +6 closed · SF covered |
 BUF @  NYJSun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | NYJ +1 | 38 | BUF 7 at NYJ 38NYJ +1 closed · NYJ covered |
 CAR @  ATLSun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | ATL +14 | 41 | CAR 10 at ATL 31ATL +14 closed · ATL covered |
 CHI @  GBSun, Jan 2 16:15 ET | GB +11 | 43.5 | CHI 3 at GB 10GB +11 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  BALSun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | BAL +9.5 | 43 | CIN 7 at BAL 13BAL +9.5 closed · CIN covered |
 DAL @  PHISun, Jan 2 16:15 ET | PHI -1.5 | 43 | DAL 14 at PHI 13PHI -1.5 closed · PHI covered |
 JAX @  HOUSun, Jan 2 16:15 ET | HOU +4.5 | 47.5 | JAX 17 at HOU 34HOU +4.5 closed · HOU covered |
 MIA @  NESun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | NE +4 | 44 | MIA 7 at NE 38NE +4 closed · NE covered |
 MIN @  DETSun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | DET +3.5 | 43.5 | MIN 13 at DET 20DET +3.5 closed · DET covered |
 NYG @  WASSun, Jan 2 16:15 ET | WAS -4.5 | 44.5 | NYG 17 at WAS 14WAS -4.5 closed · WAS covered |
 OAK @  KCSun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | KC +4.5 | 43 | OAK 31 at KC 10KC +4.5 closed · OAK covered |
 PIT @  CLESun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | CLE -6.5 | 38 | PIT 41 at CLE 9CLE -6.5 closed · PIT covered |
 SD @  DENSun, Jan 2 16:15 ET | DEN -5 | 47.5 | SD 33 at DEN 28DEN -5 closed · push |
 STL @  SEASun, Jan 2 20:20 ET | SEA -3 | 42.5 | STL 6 at SEA 16SEA -3 closed · SEA covered |
 TB @  NOSun, Jan 2 13:00 ET | NO +7 | 46.5 | TB 23 at NO 13NO +7 closed · TB covered |
 TEN @  INDSun, Jan 2 16:15 ET | IND +9 | 47.5 | TEN 20 at IND 23IND +9 closed · TEN covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CAR @ ATL LOSS ATL -14 3.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), division game, in a dome 17-5 (77%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), division game, in a dome 17-5 (77%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, at home, division game, in a dome 35-13 (73%)
- and 42 more angles on this side
JAC @ HOU LOSS JAC +4.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, lost last week, division game 58-36 (62%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, worse QB, division game 54-35 (61%)
MIA @ NE WIN NE -4 2.0u
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, elite QB 23-11 (68%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, elite QB 17-9 (65%)
- model likes them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, elite QB 17-9 (65%)
- and 23 more angles on this side
LAR @ SEA WIN SEA +3 2.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better coach, division game 14-7 (67%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, division game, on turf 12-8 (60%)
CIN @ BAL TOTALWIN Under 43.0 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, home team a big favorite 37-23 (62%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 43-31 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, on turf 37-30 (55%)
ARI @ SF TOTALLOSS Under 39.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 43-31 (58%)
NYG @ WAS TOTALWIN Under 44.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 43-31 (58%)
TEN @ IND TOTALLOSS Over 47.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, division game 57-44 (56%)
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
MIN @ DET TOTALLOSS Over 43.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, division game 57-44 (56%)
- over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
TB @ NO TOTALLOSS Over 46.5 1.0u
- over when late season, home team off Monday night 20-10 (67%)
- over when in a dome, division game 57-44 (56%)
PIT @ CLE TOTALWIN Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, low total (41 or under) 50-38 (57%)
CHI @ GB TOTALLOSS Over 43.5 1.0u
- over when under 40 degrees, home team a big favorite 22-14 (61%)
STL @ SEA TOTALLOSS Over 42.5 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 46-32 (59%)
- over when under 40 degrees, line inside 3 24-18 (57%)
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
DAL @ PHI TOTALLOSS Over 43.0 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
BUF @ NYJ TOTALWIN Over 38.0 1.0u
- over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.