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Weekly Lines · 2010

Week 11.

16 games and 19 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2010. Every number is open.

This week's plays: 12-7, +4.1u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 99-50, +62.8u flat at -110.

GameMarketTotalFinal
CHI @ MIAThu, Nov 18 20:20 ETMIA +2.540CHI 16 at MIA 0MIA +2.5 closed · CHI covered
ARI @ KCSun, Nov 21 13:00 ETKC +745ARI 13 at KC 31KC +7 closed · KC covered
ATL @ STLSun, Nov 21 16:05 ETSTL -3.543ATL 34 at STL 17STL -3.5 closed · ATL covered
BAL @ CARSun, Nov 21 13:00 ETCAR -1337BAL 37 at CAR 13CAR -13 closed · BAL covered
BUF @ CINSun, Nov 21 13:00 ETCIN +441BUF 49 at CIN 31CIN +4 closed · BUF covered
CLE @ JAXSun, Nov 21 13:00 ETJAX +2.543CLE 20 at JAX 24JAX +2.5 closed · JAX covered
DET @ DALSun, Nov 21 13:00 ETDAL +547.5DET 19 at DAL 35DAL +5 closed · DAL covered
GB @ MINSun, Nov 21 13:00 ETMIN -345GB 31 at MIN 3MIN -3 closed · GB covered
HOU @ NYJSun, Nov 21 13:00 ETNYJ +6.546HOU 27 at NYJ 30NYJ +6.5 closed · HOU covered
IND @ NESun, Nov 21 16:15 ETNE +449.5IND 28 at NE 31NE +4 closed · IND covered
NYG @ PHISun, Nov 21 20:20 ETPHI +3.547.5NYG 17 at PHI 27PHI +3.5 closed · PHI covered
OAK @ PITSun, Nov 21 13:00 ETPIT +741OAK 3 at PIT 35PIT +7 closed · PIT covered
SEA @ NOSun, Nov 21 16:05 ETNO +1144.5SEA 19 at NO 34NO +11 closed · NO covered
TB @ SFSun, Nov 21 16:05 ETSF +3.541TB 21 at SF 0SF +3.5 closed · TB covered
WAS @ TENSun, Nov 21 13:00 ETTEN +744WAS 19 at TEN 16TEN +7 closed · WAS covered
DEN @ SDMon, Nov 22 20:30 ETSD +950DEN 14 at SD 35SD +9 closed · SD covered
The market line as posted, and how each game finished.

The plays

A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.

The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each

BAL @ CAR
LOSS BAL -13 2.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 23-10 (70%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 31-14 (69%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 32-16 (67%)
  • and 24 more angles on this side
DET @ DAL
WIN DAL -5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, won last week, on turf 25-16 (61%)
  • model likes them by 3.0+, favorite, won last week, on turf 17-11 (61%)
  • model likes them by 3.0+, favorite, won last week, better QB 23-15 (60%)
  • and 1 more angle on this side
IND @ NE
WIN IND +4 2.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, won last week, elite QB 37-17 (68%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, on the road, better QB, elite QB 52-27 (66%)
  • model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, won last week, elite QB 41-22 (65%)
  • and 4 more angles on this side
CLE @ JAC
WIN JAC -2.5 1.0u
  • model likes them by 3.0+, favorite, won last week, better QB 23-15 (60%)
SEA @ NO
WIN NO -11 2.0u
  • model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, elite QB 23-11 (68%)
  • model likes them by 1.0+, blew someone out last week, better record, elite QB 17-9 (65%)
  • model likes them by 2.0+, blew someone out last week, better QB, elite QB 17-9 (65%)
  • and 30 more angles on this side
HOU @ NYJ
WIN NYJ -6.5 1.0u
  • model fades them by 2.0+, won last week, better record, worse QB 40-24 (62%)
LV @ PIT
LOSS PIT -7 2.0u
  • model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), lost last week, better coach 23-10 (70%)
  • model fades them by 2.0+, lost last week, elite QB, low total (41 or under) 18-8 (69%)
  • model fades them by 3.0+, lost last week, better QB, better coach 31-14 (69%)
  • and 60 more angles on this side
DEN @ SD TOTAL
WIN Under 50.0 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+), division game 25-13 (66%)
  • under when high total (48+) 70-40 (64%)
  • under when high total (48+), home team a big favorite 18-12 (60%)
IND @ NE TOTAL
LOSS Under 49.5 1.0u
  • under when high total (48+) 70-40 (64%)
BAL @ CAR TOTAL
WIN Over 37.0 1.0u
  • over when home team a big underdog 56-42 (57%)
TB @ SF TOTAL
WIN Under 41.0 1.0u
  • under when windy, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 18-9 (67%)
  • under when windy, low total (41 or under) 49-36 (58%)
  • under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 65-51 (56%)
BUF @ CIN TOTAL
LOSS Under 41.0 1.0u
  • under when windy, on turf 24-10 (71%)
  • under when windy, low total (41 or under) 49-36 (58%)
ARI @ KC TOTAL
WIN Under 45.0 1.0u
  • under when windy, home team a big favorite 18-12 (60%)
GB @ MIN TOTAL
LOSS Over 45.0 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, division game 57-44 (56%)
  • over when in a dome, line inside 3 47-38 (55%)
DET @ DAL TOTAL
WIN Over 47.5 1.0u
  • over when in a dome, a new starting QB 45-35 (56%)
SEA @ NO TOTAL
WIN Over 44.5 1.0u
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 45-36 (56%)
OAK @ PIT TOTAL
LOSS Over 41.0 1.0u
  • over when home team a big favorite, road team travelled 1,500+ miles 45-36 (56%)
CLE @ JAX TOTAL
WIN Over 43.0 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)
CHI @ MIA TOTAL
LOSS Over 40.0 1.0u
  • over when line inside 3, a new starting QB 69-55 (56%)

Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.

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